2013 Australian Open Men’s Draw Day 2

What a strange mixture of results the first day has produced? Some seeds were sent packing and others had to dig incredibly deep.

We will quickly have a look at the results from Monday from the plays that seemed to stand out from my perspective:

The Good

Kamke -1.5 sets – Outplayed his opponent in every facet of the game, defeating Cipolla 6-1 6-4 6-1

Malisse 3-0 – Dominant. 6-3 6-1 6-2

Verdasco h2h – Great fightback, down 2 sets to 1 and a break to fight back and win. Appeared to be limping somewhat towards the end. Something to keep an eye on.

Ferrer/Rochus under 27.5 games – Ferrer had control of the match all the way, but the under did not look likely until Ferrer won the last 4 games to cover by 0.5

Almagro/Johnson ‘Yes – a tie break will be played’ – Nearly won in the first set, however Johnson was broken to lose 7-5. It didn’t matter however, as tiebreaks occurred in sets 2 and 4

Williams -1.5 – Dominant

Kerber under 12.5 – looked shaky early in the second set, but Kerber broke twice to get the job done in straight sets.

Bartoli -1.5 – Solid straight sets win for Bartoli

The Bad

Hewitt – Outplayed pretty much all night. Just lacked that finish to get up in the first two sets.

Dimitrov/Benneteau over 3.5 sets – played this anticipating Bennetau pushing Dimitrov. Sadly, Benneteau won in straight sets

Bruguers-Davi +7 – Stunk it up. Struggled consistently on serve. Was gone well before it finished.

Mathieu under 8.5 games – Put up a stern resistence against Djokovic. Moreso than anticipated

Goerges -3.5 – lapse of concentration in the second set. Got out to around $2 in-play at the start of the third set, before winning in 3 sets.

Bautista-Agut h2h – A slight underdog, he burst out of the blocks taking the first set 6-0 over Fognini. Although he won in 5, he never found himself trailing.

The Unlucky

Reister -1.5 sets. Absolutely dominated the first set. Led a set and serving at 5-3. Was broken, and then capitulated like no other today.

Authom -1.5 sets. Absolutely tore Berlocq to shreds in the first set, winning it 6-1. Failed to capitalise on a number of opportunities in the second set. He went on to lose both the 2nd and 3rd sets in tiebreaks. A disappointing result

Hanescu under 12.5 games. Disappointing for the best bet to lose this way. First of all, Nishikori led the first set tiebreak 4-2 and 5-3, before losing it. Then, in the second set, Nishikori served for the set at 5-1, before being broken and winning the set 6-3. Little things, but when you lose by 1.5 games, they make a world of difference.

Hewitt 1st set winner – leading 6-5 and 0-30 on Tipsaravic’s serve, he had his chance. Possibly should fall in the ‘bad’ category however.

The Refunded

Bemelmans h2h – served for the match in the 4th set, and at 8-7 in the fifth set, but just couldn’t get it done.

TUESDAY

BEST BET

Bedene h2h vs Becker at $1.72 at Sportsbet

NEXT BEST

Dolgopolov -1.5 games at $1.73 at Sportsbet

Tomic 3-0 at $1.72 at Betfair

OTHER BETS

Duckworth h2h at $1.59 at Sportsbet

Tsonga -6.5 (if can be found at $1.75 before start of match)

UPSET ALERT

Zemlja vs Granollers

Sijsling vs Istomin

BETFAIR MULTI

Cilic h2h
Tomic 3-0
Dolgopolov h2h
Tsonga 3-0
Del Potro h2h
Murray h2h
Federer h2h
Azarenka h2h
Serena Williams h2h
Pays $6.03 and is eligible for Betfair 50% bonus
*NOTE: Normally against putting $1.01 shots in a multi, but these are the safest of the 4, and still result in the 50% bonus.

Match 1: Juan Martin Del Potro vs Adrian Mannarino

H2H: Tied 1-1 (Del Potro 1-0 on hardcourt)

Notable Trends:

  •  Del Potro has won 46 matches in a row when priced at $1.20 or less
  • Del Potro has won 8 of last 9 vs left handers
  • Mannarino has won 8 in a row overall

Summary: Having watched some of the bigger players Monday, you need to see how they fare round 1 before attacking bets on them. Del Potro will win, but whether it is in 3 sets or not is another question. These two met here last year too, with Del Potro winning in 4 sets.

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Match 2: Aljaz Bedene vs Benjamin Becker

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Becker has lost 5 of last 6 at Grand Slam level

Summary: Becker just doesn’t seem to be able to win the 3 sets required at Grand Slam level. Losing 5 of the last 6 is not a great sign. He also hasn’t set the world on fire to start the year, losing to Youzhny in Doha, and then Gael Monfils in Auckland.

We have seen the form Tipsaravic is in, the way he dismantled Hewitt on Rod Laver Arena. Bedene lost to Tipsaravic in three solid sets in the semi final in Chennai. Along the way, he defeated Wawrinka in straight sets (won comfortably on Monday), as well as easy wins over Haase and Sousa. From here, Bedene went on to push eventual finalist Kevin Anderson in three tough sets in Sydney.

Have to take the form player here.

Suggested Bet: Bedene h2h at $1.72 at Sportsbet (5 set refund)

Confidence: 75%

Match 3: Jeremy Chardy vs Adrian Menendez-Maceiras

H2H: Chardy leads 2-0 (1-0 on hardcourt)

Notable Trends:

  •  Chardy has lost 7 in a row in Australia
  • Chardy has won 17 in a row when priced between $1.20 and $1.50
  • Menendez-Maceiras has won 4 of last 5 on hardcourt

Summary: Better games to bet on than this one. The notable stat above however is Chardy has won 17 in a row when priced between $1.20 and $1.50

Suggested Bet: Chardy h2h a multi leg at best

Match 4: Grega Zemlja vs Marcel Granollers [30]

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Zemlja has won 6 of his last 7 in Australia
  • Granollers has won 8 of last 9 when priced between $1.50 and $2

Summary: Another match that could provide some nice inplay options. Zemlja has played some solid tennis, and Granollers certainly isn’t at his best on hardcourt. Stay tuned on twitter for possible inplay options.

Suggested Bet: Nil

Match 5: Andreas Seppi [21] vs Horacio Zeballos

H2H: Zeballos leads 1-0 (on hardcourt)

Notable Trends:

  •  Seppi has lost 5 of last 6 at Australian Open main draw
  • Zeballos has won 15 in a row overall
  • Zeballos has lost 5 of his last 6 five set matches.

Summary: Same as above. Will be active on twitter tomorrow. If we see an inplay option on this match, we won’t hesitate to tweet it.

Suggested Bet: Nil

Match 6: Igor Sijsling vs Denis Istomin

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Sijslin has won 4 of last 5 on hardcourt
Summary: Another tricky match. Think there is an upset on the cards here. After all, Istomin did go down a $1.27 favourite at the US Open
Suggested Bet: Lay Istomin if anything. Will get better odds during match

Match 7: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Rajeev Ram

H2H:  Garcia-Lopez leads 2-0 (both on hardcourt)

Notable Trends:

  •  Ram has won 6 of his last 7 matches
  • Ram has lost 7 best-of-5 matches in a row
  • Garcia-Lopez has lost 5 of last 6 when priced between $1.50 and $2

Summary: Ram battled his way through qualifying, and could get the jump on Garcia-Lopez here. Another to assess in-play.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 8: Marinko Matosevic vs Marin Cilic [12]

H2H: Cilic leads 1-0 (on hardcourt, US Open 2012)

Notable Trends:

  •  Matosevic has lost 4 in a row
  • Matosevic has lost 6 of last 7 at Grand Slam level
  • Cilic has won 4 of last 5 at Grand Slam level.

Summary: Don’t see a whole lot of value here for either side. Think the bookies have got this one spot on. If anything I would lean Cilic -5.5, but the 5 set US Open marathon they played last year suggests this could be a close one.

Suggested Bet: No bet (no value)

Match 9: Gilles Simon [14] vs Filippo Volandri

H2H: Simon leads 1-0 (on clay)

Notable Trends:

  •  Simon has won 10 in a row when priced at $1.20 or less
  • Volandri has lost 14 best-of-5 matches in a row
  • Volandri has lost 11 in a row in Australia
  • Volandri has lost 13 in a row on hardcourt
  • Volandri has lost 10 in a row at Grand Slam level

Summary: Volandri hasn’t won here in a very very long time. The advantage of his ranking means he gets an all expenses paid trip to Australia, paid for comfortably with his first round winnings.

If Simon loses this, he would be incredibly disappointed. No value though, as Simon can have lapses at times, making the handicap and totals tricky.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 10: Tommy Robredo vs Jesse Levine

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Robredo has lost 4 of last 5 matches
  • Levine has won 5 of last 6 on hardcourt

Summary: Another I would suggest to avoid. Neither seem to have the edge here. Will have a further think about this one, but looks like a coin flip for mine.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 11: Yen-Hsun Lu vs Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo

H2H:  No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Lu has lost 4 in a row at Grand Slam level
  • Hidalgo has lost 4 in a row in Australia
  • Hidalgo has lost 5 of last 6 at Grand Slam level

Summary: It must be something about today. Another match with no value pre-match.

Happy to sit back and watch these two play. Lu should win, but can’t have him at those odds.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 12: Gael Monfils vs Alexandr Dolgopolov [18]

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Dolgopolov has won 9 in a row when priced between $1.50 and $2

Summary: Probably the game of the day. I think people are giving Monfils too much credit for how he has returned from injury. Although he has wins over Kohlschreiber and Haas to his name in the last fortnight, there have also been some horrible performances.

What is most troubling for me regarding Monfils is the sheer number of break point opportunities he is allowing his opponents. He gave up 17 of them against Tommy Haas. Although he saved the bulk of them, this isn’t a great trend for Monfils, and you know a player of Dolgopolov’s standard will pounce, especially in a Grand Slam situation that Dolgopolov thrives in.

Looking at a long list of their recent playing activity, it also becomes apparent that Monfils is more likely to drop a set by a big margin (a 6-1 or 6-2). I think on recent form, coupled with past Australian Open form, Dolgopolov wins this, most likely in 4 sets.

Suggested Bet: Dolgopolov -1.5 games at $1.73 at Sportsbet

Confidence: 75%

Match 13: Florian Mayer [25] vs Rhyne Williams

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Mayer has won 6 of last 7 when priced between $1.20 and $1.50

Summary: Rhyne Williams truly deserves his spot here. He won the USTA Aus Open wildcard playoffs in December in 4 tough sets. This, however, will be a test for Rhyne.

Mayer is a funny one. He will play some blinding tennis, then back it up with some truly horrible tennis. However, if I close first set evolves, you may find better value in-play here.

If Mayer finds himself behind in this match, the stats we sent out pre-tournament suggest he doesn’t like to put up a fight.

Suggested Bet: No pre-match bet

Match 14: Richard Berankis vs Sergiy Stakhovsky

H2H: Berankis leads 2-0 (both on hard)

Notable Trends:

  •  Stakhovsky has lost 4 of last 5 at Grand Slam level
  • Berankis has won 4 of last 5 on hardcourt.

Summary: Another poor quality first round encounter. Stakhovsky is a hot and cold customer. No point guess what will happen here, it is too hard to predict.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 15: Joao Sousa vs John-Patrick Smith

H2H: Sousa leads 1-0 (hard, 7/1/13)

Notable Trends:

  •  Smith has lost 4 in a row when priced between $2 and $3

Summary: There is something about Tuesday. There seem to be a lot of poor quality matches.

Same as the match above. Not one I want money on with the exposed form.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 16: Robin Haase vs Andy Murray [3]

H2H: Tied 1-1 (both hardcourt)

Notable Trends:

  •  Haase has lost 10 of last 11 matches
  • Haase has lost 5 of last 6 at Grand Slam level
  • Murray has won 7 in a row at Grand Slam level
  • Murray has won 11 of last 12 at Australian Open

Summary: I like to watch Murray round 1 before placing bets on him. He can destroy opponents at times, but he can be also incredibly rusty and slow off the mark.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 17 : Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [7] vs Michael Llodra

H2H: Tsonga leads 5-0 (3 retirements from Llodra, other 2 on hard)

Notable Trends:

  •  Tsonga has won 8 of last 9 vs left handers
  • Tsonga has won 5 of last 6 on hardcourt
  • Llodra has lost 4 of last 5 matches
  • Llodra has lost 6 of last 7 vs Top 10 players

Summary: Tsonga has been playing some brilliant tennis, whereas Llodra hasn’t played an ATP level match since October.

I think the -6.5 around for Tsonga is a solid investment. His serve is much more controlled, and his composure in the Hopman Cup (even though an exhibition tournament), impressed me. His control and placement of his first serve will go a long way to helping him win comfortably here.

The one query, and reason why I won’t make it a bet, is the hamstring injury that caused him to pull out of Sydney.

If you can find over $1.75 for the -6.5, I would suggest taking it.

Suggested Bet: Tsonga -6.5 (if $1.75+ is found pre-match)

Confidence: 65%

Match 18: Go Soeda vs Luke Saville

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Saville has lost 6 of last 7 in Australia
  • Soeda has lost 4 of last 5 in Australia
  • Soeda has lost 7 of last 8 at Australian Open Slam

Summary: No form here to speak of whatsoever. Hard to know what the ‘home’ factor will do for Saville here.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 19: James Duckworth vs Benjamin Mitchell

H2H: Mitchell leads 1-0 (hard)

Notable Trends:

  •  Mitchell has lost 4 of last 5
  • Mitchell has lost 7 of last 8 on hardcourt
  • Mitchell has lost 5 in a row at Grand Slam level

Summary: If you read our ‘Top Australian’ future bet from yesterday, you will already know who we like here.

I was incredibly impressed with the way Duckworth played against Istomin in Sydney. His nerves got the better of him, but he was far and away the best player on the court that day. Mitchell lost to Baghdatis in straight sets, just beaten overall on the day and unable to capitalise on a couple of break point opportunities.

Suggested Bet: Duckworth h2h at $1.63 at Sportsbet

Confidence: 60%

Match 20: Blaz Kavcic vs Thomaz Bellucci [29]

H2H: Tied 1-1 (both on clay)

Notable Trends:

  •  Kavcic has lost 4 of last 5 at Grand Slam level
  • Bellucci has lost 4 of last 5 overall
  • Bellucci has lost 4 in a row at Grand Slam level
  • Bellucci has lost 5 of last 6 on hardcourt

Summary: In-play betting is definitely the go here. Will tweet stats as they come to hand, but it is better to watch these guys and consider them next round if anything. I would lean the overs in this match.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 21: Tommy Haas [19] vs Jarkko Nieminen

H2H: Haas leads 3-0 (2-0 on hard, only Nieminen victory a walkover)

Notable Trends:

  • Haas has won 6 in a row vs left handers
  • Nieminen has lost 5 of last 6 at Australian Open
  • Haas has won 10 of last 11 when priced between $1.20 and $1.50

Summary: Will be a great match to watch. Haas should win, but Nieminen has shown glimpses of solid form early in the year, including taking a set off the in-form Bernard Tomic.

Lean the overs here, but will look into this match further and tweet what I find.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 22: Ivan Dodig vs Di Wu

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Dodig has lost 4 in a row
  • Dodig has lost 8 of last 9 matches at Grand Slam level
  • Dodig has lost 12 of last 13 best-of-5 set matches

Summary: Not touching this. Wouldn’t touch it in any circumstances.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 23: Josselin Ouanna vs Alejandro Falla

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Ouanna has won 7 of last 8 on hardcourt
  • Falla has won 4 of last 5 when priced between $1.20 and $1.50

Summary: Falla seems to come into his own at Grand Slams. That being said, another poor quality match I wouldn’t bet on. Save your pennies for round 2 tomorrow.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 24: Albert Montanes vs Richard Gasquet [9]

H2H: Gasquet leads 6-0

Notable Trends:

  •  Gasquet has won 5 in a row on hardcourt
  • Gasquet has won 5 in a row when priced under $1.20
  • Montanes has lost 4 in a row on hardcourt
  • Montanes has lost 11 in a row vs Top 10 players

Summary: Gasquet pulled out of Sydney due to personal issues. I’d like to watch him once before investing in him here.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 25: Milos Raonic [13] vs Jan Hajek

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Raonic has lost 4 of last 5 matches
  • Raonic has won 4 of last 6 ‘best of 5’ matches
  • Hajek has lost 5 in a row on hard court
  • Hajek has lost 4 of last 5 at the Australian Open

Summary: Raonic first set winner looks to be a solid multi component. Raonic has won the first set in 18 of his 20 career Grand Slam matches.

Hasn’t set the world on fire of late, but Hajek isn’t exactly a high quality opponent. I lean Hajek to cover here, just because that is a massive line for someone who isn’t highly effective at breaking serve.

Being selective today though and leaving it alone.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 26: Jamie Baker vs Lukas Rosol

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Rosol has lost 6 in a row in Australia
  • Rosol has lost 4 of last 5 at Australian Open
  • Baker has lost 8 of last 9 best of 5 matches
  • Baker has won 4 of last 5 on hardcourt

Summary: Avoid this match. Don’t trust Rosel as such a firm favourite. He SHOULD get the job done here, but he does find a way to lose the unloseable at times.

Suggested Bet: None

Match 27: Amir Weintraub vs Guido Pella

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  •  Nil

Summary: No trends, limited form, better matches out there.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 28: Steve Darcis vs Philipp Kohlschreiber [17]

H2H: No previous meeting

Notable Trends:

  •  Darcis has lost 5 of last 6 matches
  • Kohlschreiber has won 14 in a row when priced at $1.20 or less
  • Darcis has lost 5 of last 6 at Grand Slam level.

Summary: Another to keep an eye on in-play, as the bookmakers have got this spot on.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 29: Martin Klizan [27] vs Daniel Brands

H2H: Tied 1-1 (both on clay)

Notable Trends:

  •  Klizan has lost 5 matches in a row
  • Klizan has lost 5 of last 6 on hardcourt
  • Brands has won 9 of last 10 overall, all on hardcourt

Summary: Once again, there isn’t a whole lot that jumps out at me here.

Suggested Bet: Watch for in-play advice on twitter

Match 30: Bernard Tomic vs Leonardo Mayer

H2H: No previous meetings

Notable Trends:

  • Tomic has won 8 matches in a row
  • Tomic has won 11 in a row in Australia
  • Mayer has lost 5 in a row overall
  • Mayer has lost 4 in a row at the Australian Open

Summary: Tomic is on a mission. He has a point to prove, and the extra rest playing on the Tuesday night helps him to come out on top here.

Mayer has had no match practice this year. This is mainly due to burning his hand on a firework on New Years Eve, so certainly not the ideal preparation.

Tomic is on fire, and I think he has the skill and tactics to cramp Mayer for room. A notable claycourter, Mayer takes big long swings at the ball, as he is used to having that extra time that playing on clay allows.

Suggested Bet: Tomic 3-0

Confidence: 70%

Match 31: Dudi Sela vs Nikolay Davydenko

H2H: Davydenko leads 2-0

Notable Trends:

  • Sela has won 4 of last 5 matches
  • Davydenko has won 4 of last 5 matches
  • Davydenko has lost 4 in a row in Australia
  • Davydenko has lost 5 of last 6 best-of-5 matches

Summary: Davydenko has been in some quality form, and I wouldn’t put it past him to cover the large handicap. The main issue stopping me from betting? The stats above. He just hasn’t been putting together solid Grand Slam matches of late.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Match 32: Benoit Paire vs Roger Federer [2]

H2H: Federer leads 1-0 (hard)

Notable Trends:

  • Paire has lost 6 in a row against top 10 players
  • Federer has won 7 of last 8 in Australia
  • Federer has won 10 in a row when priced at $1.20 or less

Summary: Want to see Federer get a match under his belt before backing him. Never know what he will do against round 1 opponents off no lead-up tournaments, so will sit back and watch him do the business.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Photo By Carine06 (Flickr: Bernard Tomic) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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