French Open 2013 Day 7 – Round 3

A good day overall yesterday, but it had the ability to be absolutely great if our Best Bet of Monfils -1.5 sets could have got over the line. For those who missed the match, Monfils had 4 match points in that 4th set, including serving at 5-4 40-15, but it just wasn’t to be. Monfils traded for over $100,000 at $1.01 on Betfair, before running out of legs.

That being said, the plays that were completed from the previous night were a great success. Best Bets went 1-0, Next Best 2-0 (and 1 refund) and WTA 0-1. The Betfair Multi also got up at reduced odds of $3.60.
Onto tonight, and there are 3 plays in particular that stand out to me

Best Bets

Djokovic 3-0 at $1.80 at Betfair (Confidence: 80%)
Gasquet over 19.5 games at $1.71 at Sportsbet (Confidence: 75%)

Next Best

Wawrinka -4.5 games vs Janowicz at $1.83 at Sportingbet (Confidence: 70%)

Haas -3.5 vs Isner at $1.72 at Sportsbet (Confidence: 70%)

5 Set Refund/Best of Rest

Youzhny h2h at $1.73 at Centrebet

Betfair Multi

Djokovic 3-0
Haas
Wawrinka
Youzhny
Kohlschreiber
Pays $6.39 at Betfair + 50% mobile bonus (up to $100)

Game 1: Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov -> 4th on Centre Court

H2H: Djokovic leads 2-1 (0-1 on clay)

Round 1 Stats

 
Novak Djokovic

Grigor Dimitrov
Score 7-6 6-4 7-5 (vs Goffin) 6-4 1-0 ret (vs Falla)
Aces 5 2
Double Faults 0 1
1st Serve Percentage 69% (70/101) 59% (30/51)
1st Serve Points Won 76% (53/70) 67% (20/30)
2nd Serve Points Won 65% (20/31) 48% (10/21)
Break Points Saved 50% (1/2) 80% (4/5)
Service Games Played 17 6
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 32% (22/68) 47% (9/19)
2nd Return Points Won 43% (19/44) 56% (9/16)
Break Points Won 27% (3/11) 100% (2/2)
Return Games Played 17 5
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 72% (73/101) 59% (30/51)
Total Return Points Won 37% (41/112) 51% (18/35)
Total Points Won 54% (114/213) 56% (48/86)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 26 14
Unforced Errors 31 16
Net Approaches
Points Won at Net
Fastest Serve 204kph
Average 1st Serve 187kph
Average 2nd Serve 151kph

 

Round 2 Stats

 
Novak Djokovic

Grigor Dimitrov
Score  6-2 6-0 6-2 (vs Pella) 6-1 7-6 6-1 (vs Pouille)
Aces 1 5
Double Faults 2 3
1st Serve Percentage 72% (49/68) 49% (45/92)
1st Serve Points Won 78% (38/49) 82% (37/45)
2nd Serve Points Won 53% (10/19) 62% (29/47)
Break Points Saved 100% (1/1) 83% (5/6)
Service Games Played 11 14
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 45% (21/47) 37% (18/49)
2nd Return Points Won 67% (24/36) 58% (19/33)
Break Points Won 44% (7/16) 50% (5/10)
Return Games Played 11 12
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 71% (48/68) 72% (66/92)
Total Return Points Won 54% (45/83) 45% (37/82)
Total Points Won 62% (93/151) 59% (103/174)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 29 37
Unforced Errors 26 33

 

Novak Djokovic

No point beating around the bush here. Djokovic is here to win. Stats from the first two matches show us that he is really looking after his serve here at Roland Garros. Just the one service break, and is really limiting his opponents chances at even getting to that break point opportunity.

I see this match as a statement match for Novak. Yes he lost in 3 tight sets to Dimitrov a month back, but this is a completely different context. Novak had already achieved all he wanted out of the clay season: beat Rafa. Now he wants the one thing that has eluded him: A French Open title. He isn’t going to let Dimitrov stand in his way.

Grigor Dimitrov

I am still not sold on Grigor at Grand Slam level. Never made it beyond the 3rd round, and has been afforded the opportunity of a 3rd round place due to a soft draw as a seed for the first time.

What has been particularly worrying for Dimitrov has been the first serve percentage and the struggles he has had when holding serve at times. In the 4 sets he has played so far he has conceded 11 break point opportunities, being broken 2 times. These performances against players of a standard many levels below Novak on the form ladder.

The Final Word

As I said earlier, I believe this will be the statement game for Novak. This is the one. He will be fired up coming off the defeat to Dimitrov a month back, and will be on from the very first shot. I have my doubts over Dimitrov’s ability to play best of 5 tennis. If Novak can get the jump and get the first set, then I doubt the ability of Dimitrov to come back here. 5 times Dimitrov has lost the first set at Grand Slam level, and 4 of those losses ended up occurring in straight sets.

Djokovic 3-0 for mine.

Suggested Bet: Djokovic 3-0 at Betfair for $1.80-$1.90 (fluctuating)

Confidence: 80%

Game 2: Richard Gasquet vs Nikolay Davydenko -> 3rd on Suzanne Lenglen

H2H: Gasquet leads H2H 5-2 (2-1 on clay)

Round 1 Stats

 
Nikolay Davydenko

Richard Gasquet
Score 6-3 6-4 7-5 (vs Serra) 6-1 6-4 6-3 (Vs Stakhovsky)
Aces 3 3
Double Faults 3 1
1st Serve Percentage 67% (62/93) 67% (47/70)
1st Serve Points Won 81% (50/62) 77% (36/47)
2nd Serve Points Won 52% (16/31) 70% (16/23)
Break Points Saved 33% (1/3) 75% (3/4)
Service Games Played 16 13
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 30% (15/50) 46% (19/41)
2nd Return Points Won 54% (15/28) 50% (17/34)
Break Points Won 71% (5/7) 60% (6/10)
Return Games Played 15 13
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 71% (66/93) 74% (52/70)
Total Return Points Won 38% (30/78) 48% (36/75)
Total Points Won 56% (96/171) 61% (88/145)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 28 26
Unforced Errors 27 13

 

Round 2 Stats

 
Nikolay Davydenko

Richard Gasquet
Score 6-4 7-5 6-2 (vs Istomin) 6-3 6-3 6-0 (vs Przysiezny)
Aces 2 9
Double Faults 1 3
1st Serve Percentage 65% (51/79) 59% (38/64)
1st Serve Points Won 80% (41/51) 84% (32/38)
2nd Serve Points Won 64% (18/28) 54% (14/26)
Break Points Saved 0% (0/1) 33% (1/3)
Service Games Played 15 12
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 41% (29/70) 48% (25/52)
2nd Return Points Won 42% (14/33) 72% (21/29)
Break Points Won 36% (5/14) 62% (8/13)
Return Games Played 15 12
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 75% (59/79) 72% (46/64)
Total Return Points Won 42% (43/103) 57% (46/81)
Total Points Won 56% (102/182) 63% (92/145)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 22 39
Unforced Errors 28 15

 

Summary

Gasquet should win this, but I don’t think it will be as comfortable as the line/totals suggest. I think Gasquet over 19.5 personal games is the best way to attack this match by far. This allows Gasquet to cover in a number of situations. It is almost guaranteed that Gasquet covers here in 4 or 5 sets, and there is the distinct possibility he also covers in 3 sets, if Davydenko can reach 5 in two sets. I think Davydenko can do this at the very least. Davydenko has been incredibly solid on his serve across the last two matches. Even if Gasquet can get a break on Davydenko, Gasquet doesn’t have the best serve on tour, and can be attacked.

Davydenko pushed Gasquet to the limit in Doha earlier in the year on hardcourt, and probably should have won in my opinion. This seems like a logical play, especially at the price we are being offered of $1.77.

Suggested Bet: Gasquet o19.5 games at $1.77 at Sportsbet

Confidence: 75%

Game 3: Stan Wawrinka vs Jerzy Janowicz – 4th on Court 2

H2H: No Previous Meetings

Round 1 Stats

 
Stanislas Wawrinka

Jerzy Janowicz
Score 7-5 6-3 6-7 7-5 7-6 7-5 6-3 (vs Ramos)
Aces 9 17
Double Faults 3 3
1st Serve Percentage 69% (95/138) 63% (65/103)
1st Serve Points Won 78% (74/95) 75% (49/65)
2nd Serve Points Won 56% (24/43) 68% (26/38)
Break Points Saved 75% (3/4) 83% (5/6)
Service Games Played 23 17
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 29% (28/98) 35% (22/63)
2nd Return Points Won 44% (20/45) 39% (16/41)
Break Points Won 27% (4/15) 43% (3/7)
Return Games Played 22 16
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 71% (98/138) 73% (75/103)
Total Return Points Won 34% (48/143) 37% (38/104)
Total Points Won 52% (146/281) 55% (113/207)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 55 65
Unforced Errors 50 46

 

Round 2 Stats

 
Stanislas Wawrinka

Jerzy Janowicz
Score  6-2 7-6 6-4 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-3(vs Haase)
Aces 19 5
Double Faults 6 7
1st Serve Percentage 66% (65/98) 60% (71/119)
1st Serve Points Won 80% (52/65) 68% (48/71)
2nd Serve Points Won 55% (18/33) 58% (28/48)
Break Points Saved 100% (8/8) 70% (7/10)
Service Games Played 15 19
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 28% (18/64) 38% (31/82)
2nd Return Points Won 59% (23/39) 45% (17/38)
Break Points Won 50% (3/6) 43% (6/14)
Return Games Played 15 20
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 71% (70/98) 64% (76/119)
Total Return Points Won 40% (41/103) 40% (48/120)
Total Points Won 55% (111/201) 52% (124/239)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 50 59
Unforced Errors 33 47

 

Summary

The only reason I did not include Wawrinka in my pre-tournament future bets was due to the doubts surrounding him and his thigh injury. Watching the matches, it is in fact strapped, but doesn’t seem to be causing too much concern. His serve doesn’t seem to be worrying him, and has only been broken once.

Janowicz worried me against Haase. He performed nowhere near as strongly as I would have thought. What is particularly troubling are his points won on first serves. Both 1st and 2nd serve points won were south of 70%, which isn’t ideal for Jerzy considering his game style. He needs those higher, and the 1st serve points won % up closer to 80. What was also worrying was how often Jerzy had to serve himself out of trouble. He will have a number of comfortable service games, followed up by finding himself 0-40 down. You can get away with that against the likes of Haase and Ramos, but not Wawrinka.

Stan will pressure each and every service game of Janowicz. I really like Stan to cover the -4.5 game handicap here. If Stan is to lose a set, I think it will be in a tiebreak. That being said, the Janowicz serve is vulnerable in my opinion.

This is going to be one entertaining match to watch, with Stan controlling from the outset in my opinion.

Suggested Bet: Wawrinka -4.5 games at $1.83 at Sportingbet

Confidence: 70%

Game 4: Tommy Haas vs John Isner -> 3rd on Court 1

H2H: Isner leads 3-2 (no clay meetings)

Round 1 Stats

  Tommy Haas John Isner
Score 7-6 6-1 6-3 (vs Rufin) 6-3 6-4 6-4 (vs Berlocq)
Aces 6 14
Double Faults 4 1
1st Serve Percentage 65% (56/86) 63% (56/89)
1st Serve Points Won 86% (48/56) 80% (45/56)
2nd Serve Points Won 43% (13/30) 48% (16/33)
Break Points Saved 75% (3/4) 80% (4/5)
Service Games Played 14 15
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 44% (25/57) 32% (21/66)
2nd Return Points Won 42% (15/36) 60% (15/25)
Break Points Won 56% (5/9) 44% (4/9)
Return Games Played 14 14
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 71% (61/86) 69% (61/89)
Total Return Points Won 43% (40/93) 40% (36/91)
Total Points Won 56% (101/179) 54% (97/180)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 27 52
Unforced Errors 41 29

 

Round 2 Stats

  Tommy Haas John Isner
Score 7-6 6-2 7-5 (vs Sock) 5-7 6-7 6-3 6-1 8-6 (vs Harrison)
Aces 11 15
Double Faults 3 2
1st Serve Percentage 74% (83/112) 65% (102/158)
1st Serve Points Won 75% (62/83) 79% (81/102)
2nd Serve Points Won 52% (15/29) 66% (37/56)
Break Points Saved 86% (6/7) 86% (6/7)
Service Games Played 16 27
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 28% (15/54) 26% (31/119)
2nd Return Points Won 52% (24/46) 52% (34/66)
Break Points Won 25% (4/16) 28% (5/18)
Return Games Played 16 27
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 69% (77/112) 75% (118/158)
Total Return Points Won 39% (39/100) 35% (65/185)
Total Points Won 55% (116/212) 53% (183/343)
Detailed Statistics
Winners 34 61
Unforced Errors 30 52

 

Summary

This is a situational play. Haas is fresher coming off two 3-setters, whereas Isner is backing up only 24 hours later off a long 5 setter.

This play comes with a very interesting statistic, albeit with a small sample size.

For John Isner, fitness and energy levels are key. The rain, coupled with what happened yesterday, absolutely works against Isner. In John’s Grand Slam career, he has won 4 five-setters. Backing up, he is 1-3 in his next match. The one win was a tight 3 setter against a player ranked 280th. In each of the 3 losses, Isner didn’t cover the -3.5 handicap on offer here. Granted one of those was off the 70-68 epic, it shows that after longer matches, Isner is in fact vulnerable.

I had my doubts over Haas at Grand Slam level, and maintained that for him to make a 4th round here he would need to get through the first two rounds in quick time. He did just that, and has now got Isner at possibly the best time you could ask for really.

The longer each point goes here, the more likely Haas is to win the point. Haas broke Isner once each set in a victory earlier in the year on the hard court, and is one of the better returners of serve in the game. I think Haas will take it to Isner here, and cover the -3.5 game handicap on offer at Sportsbet at $1.72.

Suggested Bet: Haas -3.5 games at $1.72 at Sportsbet

Confidence: 70%

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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