With months until the next Grand Slam, our Tennis Expert Ace has been busy scouting the ATP circuit for strong value bets recently and has been winning big with his posts on twitter. Make sure you give him a follow on @Ace_TheProfits and stay tuned for his updates as we don’t post everything on the website. Today, Ace looks at the BNP Paribas Open Indian Wells Round 2.
Match: Marinko Matosevic vs Juan Monaco
Marinko Matosevic – Marinko has been in the US for just on a month now, since his involvements in the Davis Cup for Australia. Since then, he has ventured to San Jose, Memphis and Delray Beach. In that time, Matosevic has racked up W’s against Sock, Soeda, Querrey, Dolgopolov and Robredo on the hardcourt. He is settled in the US, and his stats against Tommy Robredo were particularly solid on both his 1st and 2nd serves.
His last two losses have come in forgivable circumstances. The first was the semi final loss to Kei Nishikori, retiring with severe blisters. He then backed up in a position I have mentioned a number of times on twitter. Matosevic was backing up within 72 hours from his previous tournament (at which he retired) to versus Soeda. He performed admirably in my opinion, however he did squander a handful of match points before losing in a 3rd set tiebreak.
In his last 10 ATP matches on hardcourt (indoor and outdoor), Matosevic has gone a reasonable 6-4, with the 4 losses coming to Soeda (as above), Nishikori, Falla (happy to forgive…Falla is a streaky customer at the best of times) and Cilic. So he isn’t losing matches he should be winning of late.
Juan Monaco – Form is a word I can’t really use for Monaco. He has played 5 professional matches since the beginning of November. You get the impression he came to Melbourne for the first round cheque. After withdrawing from the Kooyong Exhibition tournament due to a wrist injury, Monaco then found himself playing against Andrey Kuznetsov. In all honesty, Monaco was absolutely atrocious, losing 6-7 1-6 1-6.
That is the only hardcourt match for the year for Monaco, turning his attention to the clay. After 2 Davis Cup tie wins on clay, Monaco returned to his losing ways. He was beaten in Vina Del Mar by Guillaume Rufin 6-7 4-6, and then by Simone Bolelli 5-7 2-6. In both matches, he had a high first serve percentage yet still found himself nowhere near winning.
I can’t take anything except Matosevic here. Everything points in his direction for mine.
Indian Wells: Matosevic (has a match under his belt)
Monaco has to turn the corner sometime (he needs to soon with major Miami points to defend shortly), but I cannot see it being here. Since his run to the Miami semi finals last year (March), Monaco has gone 2-6 on hardcourt, losing at odds of $1.30, $1.65, $1.25, $1.55 and $1.90. Not exactly confidence filling.
Happy to take Matosevic here. Like the situation, and certainly like how the form matches up.
Bet: Matosevic h2h at $1.80 at Betfair
I think Ebden is slightly over the odds at around $4.20 on Betfair and may be worth a very small play.
Other matches of note
Don’t read too much into the win of Karlovic over Sock. Sock capitulated more than Karlovic winning it. Querrey is a far enhanced version of Sock
Suggested Bet: I think Querrey -2 games is a solid bet in this situation
I have had a few enquire on twitter regarding multi bets. Although not advised generally, here is one for those who have requested.
Pays $4.81 at Betfair
Photo By Carine06 from UK (Juan Monaco Uploaded by russavia) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons