Never count out a seeded player

The first round of the Australian Open seems like it was several days away now, because it was, but there were some interesting learning to take out of it and also round two for future grand slams.

Of the men’s seeds playing in the first round, only four were knocked out with Juan Monaco the #11 seed going out in a shock, #18 seed Dolgopolov lost to Monfils which wasn’t as much of a shock, #19 seed Tommy Haas lost a five set thriller 6-8 and Klizan who wasn’t expected to go far was also beaten out early.

The first round dished up some unforgettable fight backs or as others may say, massive chokes. There were only three matches where players came back from 2 sets down to win and they were all seeded players. We not only look at the fight backs, but how smart betters were able to get a good price in-play.

Mikhail Youzhny seeded #23 was up against in-form Australian Matthew Ebden. Youzhny started the $1.22 favourite compared to Ebden’s long odds outsider price of $5.50. In what was a shock to most, Ebden won the first two sets 6-4, 7-6. At this stage Ebden traded into a match low of $1.21 while Youzhny was $6.20 on Betfair. Our Tennis expert Ace tweeted that he had memories of last years choke when up 2 sets to 0 from Ebden and pointed to Ebden choking in Sydney the week before. Youzhny was big value in this position and he ended up going on to win the match 6-2, 7-6 and 6-3 in the final three sets.

Florian Mayer seeded #25 started a short $1.18 favourite against $6.60 hope Rhyne Williams. Mayer was playing some average tennis early and lost the first two sets 2-6, 3-6. Mayer traded out to $4.00 after losing the second set while Williams traded into $1.28. It wasn’t easy from here but Mayer went on to win the match taking the next three sets 6-2, 7-6 (14-12 tie break) and 6-1.

Radek Stepanek seeded #31 was up against Viktor Troicki. Interestingly due to recent form, Troicki started the $1.58 favourite compared to Stepanek $2.68. Stepanek started the game playing some decent tennis but Viktor was simply switched on winning the first two sets 7-6, 6-4. Up two sets, Troicki was matched on Betfair at a low of $1.07 while Stepanek was matched at his match high of $12. Stepanek then turned his game around winning the next two sets 6-3, 6-3 and finishing off the match 7-5. There were several opportunities to get on Stepanek during this game and the best spot was most likely after he won the third set convincingly.

While I haven’t mentioned them, there were quite a few fight backs from 2 sets to 1 down by seeded players which served up good odds, especially the Verdasco match.

The seeded players were not to be outdone in round two either!

Jerzy Janowicz seeded #24 lost his first two sets 6-7, 3-6 against relatively unknown Indian player Somdev Devvarman (Single ranking of 551). Jerzy started the match a $1.23 favourite while Devvarman was $5.30. After he lost the second set, Jerzy traded out to $5.60 while Devvarman traded into a Betfair low of $1.22. Jerzy then went on from here to win the next two sets 6-1 and 6-0 before serving out the match 7-5.

Unsurprisingly, both Mikhail Youzhny and Florian Mayer were knocked out by unseeded players in the second round with Mayer losing in straight sets.

There is a lot of money to be made through smart in-play bets. You need to set an amount that a certain player should be trading at when you are making a bet for you to be profitable long term, and if you are getting that price, bet it. To put on a single in-play bet, calling up isn’t much of a hassle and the results can be massive.

It is important to note that in games that include high seeds such as Novak Djokovic or Serena Williams, you can bet in-play on the Betfair website or app on ‘Winner’ markets effectively.

Please Note:
All statistics used above are taken from Betfair.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Carine06 from UK (Florian Mayer) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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