2013 Wimbledon Day 1

Tennis

Hello all and welcome to another fortnight of Grand Slam tennis. Wimbledon is such a fantastic fortnight of tennis every year, and I cannot wait for things to get under way.

A bit of an update for those who haven’t seen on twitter, I will be overseas during the tournament. It won’t stop me from writing the previews for the website, however I will be a bit harder to reach on twitter through @Ace_theprofits so please be patient. I will try and get to all comments and replies, however I apologise if that is not the case.

I am still mulling over some future bets and trading advice, so come back a few hours before the tournament starts to get the full rundown and posted futures. The only future that is set so far is Andy Murray to win Wimbledon at $5.40, as posted at the end of the French Open. I believe this is the year for Andy. Although I do believe he was slightly injured leading into the French Open, Andy made the right call to pull the pin on the clay, recover, and focus on his number 1 goal for 2013. Should have no issues reaching the semi finals (Tsonga only real potential issue), where he will meet Nadal or Federer. I will re-assess if we reach that stage regarding trading out or continuing on, so keep an eye out.

At the current time, I am just posting the 4 plays that have caught my eye. I wanted to get these out as I fear by the time I get around to writing these plays up, the odds on each will have shortened. This may be something I look to do throughout the tournament, as there is nothing more annoying then writing up a play only to see the line has shifted during writing.

As a general rule for Day 1 of Grand Slams, there are no Best Bets. Those who have followed this year will know that Day 1 of a Grand Slam is probably my worst day statistically, so do tread carefully.

Best Bet

Don’t go large day 1. It is a long tournament!

Next Best

John Isner over 20.5 games vs Donskoy at $1.83 at Sportsbet

Gulbis h2h into Rosol h2h into Benneteau h2h at $2.37 at Pinnacle

5 Set Refund

Hewitt h2h vs Stan Wawrinka at $2.32 at Sportsbet (5 set refund promotion)

Malisse h2h vs Fernando Verdasco at $1.83 at Centrebet (5 set refund promotion)

NOTE –  If you use both Centrebet and Sportsbet, why not take advantage of their promotions when available. Both have a 5 set refund special, so when the odds work out, you can always play them off one another. As you are only taking one side at each book, you aren’t doing anything that would be considered as taking advantage looking from one bookmaker’s perspective.

Here is how it works. Say you, like me, think Malisse will win. What you could do is:

$100 on Malisse h2h at $1.83 at Centrebet

$40 on Verdasco h2h at $2.10 at Sportsbet

If Malisse wins in 3 or 4 sets -> +$43

If Malisse wins in 5 sets -> +$83

If Verdasco wins in 5 sets -> +$44

If Verdasco wins in 3 or 4 sets -> -$56

Other Day 1 Plays

David Goffin over 11.5 games vs JW Tsonga at $2.03 at Sportsbet

Betfair Multi

Isner/Donskoy o40.5 games

Malisse h2h

Benneteau h2h

Stepanek h2h

Gulbis h2h

Federer h2h

Pays $6.01 and is eligible for the Betfair 50% bonus (max bonus up to $100)

 

Bet 1 – Isner vs Donskoy

When: 2nd match on court 13

This line seems a little low in my opinion for the total games for John Isner. Fresh off a tight 3 set loss to Donskoy last week, I expect Isner to turn the tables tonight. I am a big fan of the current line and this style of play and I will explain why.

In 13 of Isner’s 20 Grand Slam wins against top 100 players, Isner has covered the 20.5 game handicap. What I also like is the distinct possibility that Isner could lose, yet still cover the line. Although Isner 3-0 is the favourite set betting outcome (around $2.50), I have Isner 3-1, 3-2, Donskoy 3-2 all as realistic possibilities, and all would cover this line. Not to mention, Isner could win 7-6 7-6 7-6 and still cover 20.5 games.

Both players have a high service hold%, especially on grass. Ideally we would like to see Isner and Donskoy split tiebreaks in the first two sets here.

Looks like it’ll be a tight match, especially if last week is any indication. There is no point beating around the bush with only a couple of lead-up tournaments.

Suggested Bet: John Isner over 20.5 games vs Donskoy at $1.83 at Sportsbet

Confidence: 70%

 

Bet 2: 

Leg 1: Gulbis h2h vs Roger-Vasselin

When? 3rd on Court 7

On recent form, I think at worst Gulbis should win this in 4 sets. I rate the form of Ernie pushing Haas to 2 tight sets far more than ERV getting wiped by Lu. ER did push Tsonga to 3 sets at Queens, however you never really got the impression that he was going to win. Gulbis h2h seems a nice leg for this option.

Leg 2: Rosol h2h vs Reister

When? 1st on Court 19

The giant killer from last year, Rosol finds himself out on court 19 against Reister. On form, I would have thought that Rosol would be more around the $1.30 mark, as his game style is much more suited to grass than Reister.

For those who are unaware, I have been wary of Reister since losing a bet on him at the Australian Open. He can go from competitive to playing like Redfoo in the space of a few mins. I recall him leading a set and a break at the Australian Open before being wiped off the court by Rufin 6-1 and 6-2 in the 3rd and 4th set, and then copped a bagel and a 6-1 in his first round loss at the French Open. Grand Slam level just appears to slightly be a level above Reister. Rosol SHOULD win fairly comfortably.

Leg 3: Benneteau h2h vs Kamke

When? 3rd on Court 14

If Benneteau can knock off Kamke on clay, then he should have absolutely no issues doing the business on grass in my opinion.

Suggested Bet: Gulbis h2h into Rosol h2h into Benneteau h2h at $2.37 at Pinnacle

Confidence: 65%

 

5 SET REFUNDS

  • By all reports, Lleyton Hewitt was playing some incredible tennis in a practice match against Roger Federer over the weekend. What better way to get ready for a meeting with Wawrinka than playing with the Swiss upgrade that is Fed?
  • It is arguably the best surface on the calendar for Hewitt, and the least favourite for Wawrinka, if his past form is anything to go by on the grass.
  • Malisse over Verdasco is a pure form play. Can’t ignore that price on Malisse either.

 

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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