Bulldogs (6th) v Rabbitohs (2nd)
The Bulldogs have almost assured themselves of a Top 8 finish, with their second consecutive victory last week against the hapless Tigers. Previous to that, they were struggling for consistency but wins against lesser opponents have placed them in a better position than they once were. The hype around them is beginning to build back up, but they will need to produce a worthy performance against a highly ranked opponent before they will be appropriately noticed. The Rabbitohs could provide a solid measure, however they are aiming to bounce back from a below-average performance against the Cowboys. That win would’ve taken them to 1st in the competition, but they were unable to make the most of their fantastic opportunity. Thurston, who was the beneficiary of dominant forward in the middle of the field, put them on show throughout the match. Alarmingly for the Rabbitohs, their halves were constantly under pressure and unable to create pressure at the end of attacking sets. They will want to put that performance behind them, with that match perhaps being a “loss that they needed to have” in the run into the Finals.
Team News
Bulldogs = Unchanged.
Rabbitohs = Luke Burgess is pushed back to the extended bench, to accommodate the return of brother George from suspension. He will start and Tom Burgess will come off the bench.
History
Overall = Bulldogs 78 Draw 4 Rabbitohs 66
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 3 Rabbitohs 2
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 13 Rabbitohs 5
Verdict
The Rabbitohs are too strong for the Bulldogs at their best, but working in the home sides favour is the game plan that could possible bring the Rabbitohs down. Teams have shown throughout the year that if you take the battle to them in the forwards, they are vulnerable. This should ensure that the match is kept close, although the Rabbitohs do not exactly win close games. They have won 93% of their matches by 13+ plus points, whereas the Bulldogs are split, losing 1-12 55% of the time and 13+ 45%. Then again, this is the business end of the season and the Rabbitohs are not flying as high as they once were. Winning is still on their minds, but they first have to overcome their opponent and that may take some time away from scoring extra points.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3.10
Broncos (9th) v Dragons (11th)
The Broncos roared back into Finals contention, with a dominating display against the Knights. Aside from the fact that is was in front of their incoming coach for 2015, it placed further pressure on the teams ahead of them to continue winning or risk falling out of the Top 8. They can ill-afford another slip up or that could be the end of their 2014 campaign. On the same points as the Broncos and 2-points out of the 8, the Dragons are in a similar situation, but have a -21 points difference to contend with. They did everything possible to change that in Round 24, comprehensively beating the Titans by 28-points. Perhaps the most exciting factor for Dragons fans was the continued confidence and combination of their halves. Gareth Widdop is continuing on his dominant form and now he is strongly supported by Benji Marshall. News that stand-in coach Paul McGregor will now be permanently in the job for the next 3 years is only going to enhance the player’s confidence further. They enjoyed a strong record at Suncorp Stadium and will need everything working in their favour if they are to continue to survive for another week.
Team News
Broncos = Unchanged, except Justin Hodges is named at fullback after playing there last week and Lachlan Maranta pushes to the wing.
Dragons = Benji Marshall and Josh Dugan are in doubt with ankle injuries, but are expected to play. Nathan Green, Bronson Harrison and Jack Stockwell have been added to an extended bench.
History
Overall = Broncos 18 Dragons 13
Last 5 matches = Broncos 5 Dragons 0
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 7 Dragons 6
Verdict
The Broncos are expected to win this match but they may find it a little more difficult than expected. They are going to be boosted by the home ground advantage, where they have an average winning margin of 20.5 points in 2014. Don’t get caught up with that, they only have a 55% winning record on home turf this season. Both teams scored a lot of points in Round 24 but with a spot in the Finals on the line, they are going to have to lift to another level if they want to win this match. This suggests that the match should be a close one, with the Broncos just getting over the line due to the strength they have in the forwards, combined with their class in the backline.
Suggested Bet
Broncos 1-12 @ $3.10
Knights (14th) v Eels (8th)
Meeting for the second time this season, the form of these two teams has changed dramatically. The Eels now find themselves in 8th position, achieving that spot with an upset victory over the competition leading Sea Eagles. It demonstrated just what they are capable of, although there is still a lot to be desired from this team. The main component would be consistency and decreasing the reliance on key players. Things are not travelling well for the Knights, who will be egger to make amends for an embarrassing 42-points loss to the Broncos. After back-to-back victories, the Knights looked like they would finish the season with some of their pride in tact. That is all there is for them to play for now, as motivation among the playing group sure to be at a low with the issues that they have had to face this season. Still, on their home turf they will be difficult to beat but the Eels have more motivation and players in form working in their favour.
Team News
Knights = Jarrod Mullen is named to return from injury and Michael Dobson drops out of the team altogether. Interestingly, Timana Tahu is named on the bench for his first start this season.
Eels = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Knights 25 Draw 1 Eels 19
Last 5 matches = Knights 5 Eels 0
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 16 Eels 6
Verdict
Despite a disappointing loss last week, the Knights are still a chance of producing an upset. The Eels are yet to convince me of their credentials either. Full credit to them for their victory last week, but prior to that they had only beaten the Sharks, Raiders and Titans. This is a tough road trip for them to make and one that will have extra motivation after their loss in Round 16 on their home ground. Confidence will be on their side but the Knights are also aiming to bounce back after a humiliating loss to the Broncos. The Eels have the potential to make a statement with a strong victory, but they are a risky team to invest in on the margin. Best idea is to stick with the line and have them win by slightly more than a 4-point try.
Suggested Bet
Eels -4.5 @ $1.90
Plane ready to fly = Jarryd Hayne FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – He failed to cross the line last week, but prior to that he scored first for the Eels in their previous 3 matches. That gives him a 75% strike rate in the past 4 matches and with their season on the line, you expect a player of his calibre to stamp his authority on the match.
Raiders (15th) v Tigers (12th)
In a match that means little to the conclusion of the competition, these two teams may just have their last chance to grab a win for 2014. The Tigers were again the victim of a disappointing display, with the entire squad looking lost for answers. Unfortunately, it appears as though the fate of coach Mick Potter is affecting the playing group more than most expected. They are on a 5-game losing streak and are hanging out for the end of the season. The Raiders were fortunate enough to face a depleted Sharks team in Round 24, with some suggesting that their winning result could’ve been a different one if the home side were not missing more than 17 players. That win also meant a lot more than 2-competition points, almost ensuring that they avoid the dreaded wooden spoon. Returning home, they will want to finish the season on a positive note. Interestingly, some players from both teams could be playing for their futures, while talented youngsters are beginning to get a taste of NRL action for the first time.
Team News
Raiders = Rookie Mitch Cornish is named to start at halfback and Josh McCrone drops back to the bench.
Tigers = Pat Richards returns to the wing and Cory Paterson shifts back to the centres. Luke Brooks is out, with Blake Austin shifting to 5/8 and Mitchell Moses moving to halfback.
History
Overall = Raiders 10 Tigers 17
Last 5 matches = Raiders 1 Tigers 4
At GIO Stadium = Raiders 6 Tigers 8
Verdict
With little interest around this match, you may just want to avoid it altogether. If you are going to invest your money, then the best option would be to back the home side. The Tigers have been terrible in the past month and a half; and motivation at the club would be at an all-time low. A trip down to Canberra isn’t going to make things any easier. Conditions are meant to be fine, but you can always expect a cold climate in the nations capital. The Tigers defense has a lot of holes across the field and their attack will be limited with the omission of Brooks. Rather than pick a margin, invest your money on the home side to cover the line and make it 2-consecutive victories in the closing weeks of the competition.
Suggested Bet
Raiders -7.5 @ $1.90
Points-scoring machine = Jarrod Croker FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Despite his teams failings this season, Croker is still one of the most prolific scorers in the competition. In the past 3 matches, Croker has scored the final try for the Raiders twice. He is again a chance of crossing the line, especially considering the points the Tigers are leaking on their edges.
Roosters (3rd) v Storm (5th)
In arguably the match of the round, the two form teams of the competition will face off to assure their spot in the Top 4. With key player’s returning to their team, the Roosters travelled across to New Zealand and handed the Warriors a reality check. They are beginning to peak at the right stage of the season and will only gain more confidence with their efforts. The Storm were also in the winners circle, overcoming the Panthers on the road. The match appeared as though it was theirs to lose, thankfully saluting with a commanding victory. Both sides are aware of how crucial a spot in the Top 4 is to their title aspirations, with a win here more vital for the Storm. On top of that, this match could be a preview of where the two teams are heading at the end of September.
Team News
Roosters = SBW is named to starting, taking Frank-Paul Nuuausala’s place and he moves back to the bench. Aidan Guerra moves to lock and Sam Moa is named to start, pushing Dylan Napa back to the bench.
Storm = Jordan McLean drops back to the bench to accommodate the return of Jesse Bromwich from injury. Dayne Weston, Junior Moors and Justin O’Neill are added to the extended bench.
History
Overall = Roosters 12 Storm 14
Last 5 matches = Roosters 2 Storm 3
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 6 Storm 3
Verdict
It is surprising to see the odds between the two teams so large. Sure, the Roosters have been impressive lately but by their own admission, wins against the Warriors, Tigers, Titans and Dragons isn’t a major fete. This match will test them, however the Storm are backing up from a MNF contest. That could be a major reason why the Roosters are heavily favoured; nevertheless this match is going to be anything but a one-sided contest. The Roosters are one of the teams to beat, although this is the time of the season when the Storm rise to majority of challenges thrown their way. Rather than pick a winner, the best option is to invest around a close contest and enjoy what this game has to offer.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.60
Warriors (10th) v Titans (13th)
The Warriors are again their own worst enemy, with their 2-consecutive losses pushing them outside the Top 8. They are now in real danger of missing the Finals altogether if they do not get things back on track. Against the Roosters last week, they were anything but competitive. They did meet a superior team that was on their game, but missed tackles and mistakes meant building pressure was hard to come by. The Titans ended up in a similar situation but that was somewhat expected as their season ended a few weeks earlier. Injuries to key players are also making things difficult, as is the absence of a permanent coach. Again, they have been disappointing and will be hoping now that their final two performances build towards 2015. Making a road trip across to New Zealand will only decrease their motivation and with that in mind, this game could get very ugly for the visiting team.
Team News
Warriors = Ngani Laumape is back on the wing, Dominique Peyroux is named in the centres and Sam Rapira will come from the bench. Sione Lousi will start at lock for Sebastine Ikahihifo, who comes off the bench.
Titans = Same 17, with David Mead named as 18th man.
History
Overall = Warriors 9 Titans 6
Last 5 matches = Warriors 5 Titans 0
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 4 Titans 2
Verdict
This is a must win match for the Warriors and the Titans may just prove the right team to get them back into form. Their recent form has been terrible to say the least, winning only 2 of their past 10 matches. On top of that, their past 5 losses have been by an average of 18.4 points and the Warriors will be desperate to turn around their efforts last week. It is hard to see anything other than a blowout to the Warriors occurring and if they are in the mood, it could get very ugly for the visitors.
Suggested Bet
Warriors 19+ @ $2.15
Beast mode = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – He has been kept quiet the past few weeks, but with a weaker opposition on his favourite ground, expect the Warriors powerhouse to be back to his best. When he is firing, he is one of the hardest players in the NRL to stop!
Sea Eagles (1st) v Panthers (4th)
Looking at the two teams standings on the ladder, you wouldn’t believe that each suffered a loss 3-weeks out from the Finals. The Eels surprised the Sea Eagles last week, with individual brilliance and a lack of execution when in possession bringing them down. It is never an ideal situation to be in, but it will worry them little, especially after the Rabbitohs failed to capitalise on their good fortune. There is a sense that off-field issues will eventually become too much but at this stage, their form and potential is difficult to look past. The Panthers are struggling with injuries, to the point where many are suggesting that they have won their last game for the season. They did little to alter opinions with their loss against the Storm, however some passages of play suggested otherwise. The attacking potential is there and if their defensive structure holds firm, they may just have some fight left in them yet.
Team News
Sea Eagles = Unchanged.
Panthers = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles 49 Draw 1 Panthers 28
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 3 Panthers 2
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 28 Panthers 10
Verdict
It is not time to create panic at the Sea Eagles just yet, as one loss is hardly going to halt the momentum they have created throughout 2014. If anything, that loss will create a greater desire for success and remind them that they still have to work hard for victories. The Panthers are going to be up against several factors, most notably a trip to Brookvale Oval after MNF. They looked vulnerable against the Storm and the Sea Eagles could easily exploit the same fragilities in their play. As for the margin, the home side do not exactly run up a large tally in matches, winning by 1-12 points in 66% of their victories. That trend should continue, especially considering the weather that has pounded Sydney and the report troubles that Brookvale Oval has had in trying to drain water.
Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.90
Cowboys (7th) v Sharks (16th)
The Cowboys turned out an impressive effort last week to upset the Rabbitohs, proving that in the right situation, they are capable of producing on the road. Full credit to the victory was given to Thurston and the way he set up the match for his team. He played one of his best games this season but by his own admission, the forwards set the victory up for them. If they want to continue that form, the forwards need to take charge in each match. The Sharks hit rock bottom last week and their week only got worse on Sunday afternoon, as the Raiders defeated them and almost assured them of the wooden spoon. Things are difficult to say the least, with ASADA suspensions, injuries and judiciary suspensions stretching the depth of players. They were already struggling prior to that, now they are hanging out for the end of the season more than any other team. Travelling north to Townsville will prove difficult and they will need to rely on motivation from the younger members of the squad to keep pride in this squad for 2014.
Team News
Cowboys = Jason Taumalolo is named at lock, switching with Gavin Cooper, who moves to the second row.
Sharks = Blake Ayshford is named in the centres, Daniel Holdsworth returns at 5/8 and Tinirau Arona is named at second row.
History
Overall = Cowboys 13 Sharks 21
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 4 Sharks 1
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 7 Sharks 10
Verdict
Earlier this season in Round 17, the Sharks came from behind to upset the Roosters 30-28. That victory was labelled as one of the greatest ever by the club. If they can match that effort here, this match would surpass Round 17 and go down in history as one of the greatest from any club. They are down on players and travelling up to Townsville. All signs point towards an in-form Cowboys outfit capturing victory. Due to the one-sided nature of this match, there is minimal value around. With their growing confidence, the home team could build on their efforts last week, while at the same time, improving in defense to keep their opponents to a low score.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys -30.5 @ $1.90
Good luck!
Scooby
