Welcome to the weekends form. Last weekend provided some good racing and this weekend is no different. This week we are focusing on Caulfield with a splash of Doomben. As I am away in Prague right now, don’t expect any updates on twitter, although I have a feeling I will wake up for the first couple of Caulfield Races where my most confident value bets will be. Good luck and good punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=36318&raceid=317904&plusday=0
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Certainly not a one horse race. There are several chances in the first and have to admit the favs are not value at all. Recent form from Caulfield suggests you always want to be with a front runner in the first few races, especially if they are lightly weighted. Zamorar is all quality. 1.8L behind Sepoy four runs back and never really failing in any of his races, you always get a good run out of the horse. The problem is that he is always there or there abouts and at the price, you just don’t know. If previous Caulfield form plays out, could win by lengths. Biggest concern is 2 slow track races and 2 places – Back with confidence on Dead track.
Platelet is a very consistent racer who seems to go best sitting 3rd to 5th and taking a sit. 55.5kg after a claim works in her favour and seems to go well on fast or slow times.
Vain Attraction won at this class three back over 1000m. Back down to a low weight of 53.5kg, is well weighted but feel she would need to be closer to the speed to win this one with so many quality runners up front.
Sport Chic is the interesting value runner of the race. Won here two back in equal class on a slow track (expected for early going) when taking a sit in 3rd. Won’t get that this race from barrier 9 but with such a long spell – close to a year – you get the feeling it is ready to run well again.
Caulfield Race 2
Not the best race of the day. There are always concerns in a race with first starters. We got a good first starter last week that was massively layed out from 5s to 18s before jump and won easy and there could be one in this race.
Sheet Talent is a Redoubte’s Choice colt trained by Kavanagh and having it’s first start with no trial. Booking of Oliver onboard is always interesting.
Union Gap ran a very good first up race 0.8L second behind Crystal Web who looks very handy. Was a nicely timed race on a slow track, so should be suited here also. Down 2kg from that previous run seems pretty generous also.
Not sure what to make of Magnier who won in impressive fashion first up by 4.5L out in the country. Time was fairly average but lead all the way. Will be given a good ride out front, just the question of if it runs this one out as strongly.
Haussmann deserves to be favourite here. Slowly away and blocked for run last out yet still won by 1L in a good quality race. Goes up 1.5kg for that ride and wet track shouldn’t be a problem. General Groove could improve off last run also.
Caulfield Race 3
There is a race with a large amount of quality. One horse does stick out for us here simply on form and weights and you can guess who it is.
Placement will be taken forward to her normal position up front in this race. She has won on dead and slow in recent races including a similar class race two back at Caulfield off 51kg. She comes into this off 52kg with the claim and while Mallyon isn’t the jockey, Duffy should give her a strong ride.
There are a few contenders to beat her. Domesky is a horse who ran well last up 1L behind Dance With Her on the heavy. Think it runs well here but weighted out of it compared to others.
Finiguerra won well last up in Adelaide in a field that was lacking class compared to this one. 56kg seems a bit harsh also.
Montgomery has been continuing to run good runs but just out of the places. 2L behind Chasse last up in equal class over 2000, Runs well on slow and down 0.5kg.
Finally, Hurdy Gurdy Man is a horse who continues to start at short odds. Will run well but we simply have Placement ahead of it due to weights.
If you want to know, we are looking at the weights carried by Dance with her who all of these were beaten by at Warnabool.. and comparing the weights to what placement carried at Morphet.. which is 5.5kg more.
Caulfield Race 4
Galbraith resumed very well this prep and with a 3kg claim, comes into this race VERY well from barrier 1. Will most likely take a sit as there is a fast pace expected and will just go on and win this.
Queen Delight will most likely be providing the speed in the race and has good form on slow tracks.
Broken can’t be ignored here. Was 1L behind Galbraith last start and gains 3.5kg on him. Ran a horrible race after that so not sure what to make of the horse. May simply be wanting slow tracks now. Think the strategy last run ruined it.
Johannapine is the race favourite and all quality. Not sure what the tactics will be but feel they might try and take the lead.. and we are hoping they do as Queen of Delight will try and go with them and those two will tire out and give Galbraith an easy run behind them. She is far too short here for being unproven in this grade of race.
Caulfield Race 5
Good to see Soft Sand back at the races. We made a bundle betting against her last prep. On first look, $2 is very short for her in this race, but when you consider the big down in class and weight, she could be value. Having won both her first up starts and winning 3 of 4 at this distance, she seems well suited. Put into a middle of the day race when the runners from the back/midfield should be getting a better run, if she has trained on slightly, she wins this.
Rue Maple is the quality runner of the race but 58.5kg after claim seems very harsh. Ignore last up run and look toward previous two runs at Caulfield over distance. Will be in this until the end.
Gossip Girl is one not to dismiss. 2/1 from 4 first up record with 2 wins from 4 starts at this class. 57kg seems a little harsh but may be suited by the down in distance.
Spurcific will run a true race down 2kg in same class. Up 100m in distance will help and did lose plate in run last run when 3rd 1.5L.
Finally, Somaly Miss was impressive winning two back. This is a big step up in grade but is suited by the weight and can run well.
Caulfield Race 6
This race is an open book. Tai Tai Tess ran a big race last start coming from the freeway via the carpark to finish 0.4L third when probably 10L back on the turn in harder company. Down 0.5kg from last start here at class. Should handle any type of ground.
Juliet’s Princess ran a good second to Lucky Penny over the 1600 but finds herself up 2.5kg. Seems too much to give to Tai Tai Tess.
Ominous Quality won a good race at course and distance and class easily this month. Good barrier draw and should get a good sit. Lakers Bay out of the same race also with a shot.
Finally, a good friend of ours horse is in this race called Rainbow Dash. It ran a solid race last up and hopefully runs a good one at big odds for F4 punters!
Caulfield Race 7
We are going out on a limb here and saying Adamantium is simply not as good as everyone expects. We rode the hype train last week and stuck firm after the poor first up run at Adelaide but it didn’t show much improvement. Back to what should be a winnable grade, 58kg seems steep for this horse to carry over the line, especially with the poor barrier draw.
Randall is the most interesting runner in this race. Having ran second in NZ in a 3Y GP1, the last two runs have been poor at best. This is due to tactics. Barrier 3 will suit here and we are hoping they take this horse forward to give it every chance with a good sit.
Manhattan Maid and Roses In The Glen are both runners who ran well last up but seem to be outclassed here. Both would need to show a 2-3L improvement to win this.
Honey Flower was quite impressive first up with 2L loss to Classy Chloe. Off 54kg, they might try and push more forward and give it a better chance.
You Tell Me was also given a great ride last start. Down 0.5kg from 0.1L second, the big concern is the extra 200m as it actually passed Classy Chloe with 100m to go then died in final 50 to lose.
Stratigraphy is a horse that is always there at the end. From barrier 7 not sure what they will try tactic wise this time. Down 2.5kg helps and only run over slow was a 8L win in it’s maiden in good time. I expect they will try the same tactic and sit near the back of the field.
Finally, Little Bro was a horse backed late for lots in it’s last start. Change of tactics to lead out were successful but the 1600 just seemed too far coming second. Back to 1400 here, is a very good shot.
Caulfield Race 8
Going to start with one of our top 10 horses going around who hasn’t come on at all this prep in Lethal Arrow. Always jumps at long odds but hasn’t been able to stay this prep. Ran well over Good tracks last prep but hasn’t this one. May be looking for more water in the ground and finds it today. Unfortunately, they keep running it in the later races of the day where front runners are generally disadvantaged.
Under The Eiffel has been consistent this prep but off 60kg here, it will run another true face and fall short.
Eraset was super impressive in his last up win by 2.3L. Only issue is the ground.
Shenzhou Steeds going forward second up this prep worked a treat. Up 2.5kg from that run but seems to be suited here.
Banca Mo has been dominating fields in Tasmania and this is a big step up in class. I wouldn’t dismiss him here.
Doomben Race 6
Dance With Her from barrier 2 will have the run of the race. A good distance on what will be a wet track. Everything seems to be in her favour including a light 56kg. Arnold gave her a brilliant ride two back and should here again.
Hume was massive last up and up 1.5kg might not be suited by the wet track.
Don’t ignore Ironstein, Wazn or Shamardashing who are all chances also.
Doomben Race 7
A massive step up in class this race for horses such as Pampelonne.
Sea Siren won well last up and there will be a similar tempo in this race. The one horse who was almost odds on favourite in that previous race in Buffering who is a massive $4s. This is the horse who went toe to toe with Hay List and lost by 0.1L then followed that up with a 3rd behind foxwedge and hay list. Wet track is no issue, the only issue is the distance. After a 7L win on heavy last start beating Scenic Blast (who ran 1.3L behind Sea Siren), we think Buffering will stay the distance and win this one in a tight finish.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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