Welcome to The Profits Cranbourne form. How good was last weekend! The launch of the post Spring Racing Carnival period provided us with some good wins at Moonee Valley followed by both of best bets getting up at Sandown including some early mail specials in Ibicencio at $3.50 and most importantly, Paramount Pete placing up in Sydney at $18! This looks to be one of those off week’s where we have to sort through the races carefully to select a few winners with the fields tonight looking average at best and not much better tomorrow at Moonee Valley or Ascot. As always, do your own form, compare and good luck!
Race 7 No.4 Work The Line
Race 8 No.12 Angela’s Dream
Race 2 Nella Fantasia
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Cranbourne Race 1
Baristascollection: Fairly poor 3rd at Geelong last start and needs to find much more here today.
Cousin Andy: Not the worst run we have seen last start at Sale but the step up doesn’t look to be justified on form.
I Maximus: Ran on well last start at Mornington but was never a home there. Has to find much more today.
Tune Out: One of those horses who just keeps on giving you excuses. Down 1.5kg today but didn’t run up to par last start. Has to improve again today.
War Is Over: Ignore last start when ridden too far back. Will go more forward from barrier 4 today and be given every chance.
Blessed Boy: Strong first up run but does need to find a lot more today.
Carmen Over Baby: Keeps going close and just keeps finding a few too good. Weighted ok today and looks to want the distance.
Karata: Huge step down in class today and on first up run and last start in a much harder race, down in weight, looks the one to beat.
Moorunda Mia: Went close enough last start to suggest is in with a chance.
Cranbourne Race 2
Beneficiary: Ignore last start and look to two previous runs. Will be suited better today by step down to 1000m, down 4kg with claim again and a jockey who knows the horse. Will go close from the front.
Apache Wing: Ignore run last start. Look to first up at Geelong where went close. Form lines from that race very average though.
Emperor’s Chariot: Ran on very well first up behind Andre Roo Hoo and will improve again today.
It’s Dylan: Had every chance last start from the front. Should be better suited today taking a sit. Will run well.
The Ancient Order: Big unknown. Market only guide but has the breeding to run very well.
Young Fun: Could improve on first up run but looks outclassed on that performance.
Miss Carter: Outclassed on previous runs
Shot Of Trice: Outclassed on first up run last prep. Will need to have trained on big time!
Nella Fantasia: Has the ability. May be looking for a track that isn’t rain affected. Down to 52kg. Weighted to win.
Thanks A Million: Has the ability and weighted well enough today.
Cranbourne Race 3
Caffe Coupez: First up run last prep showed enough to suggest can win today. If trained on go close.
Cursu: Ran some nice times last prep but didn’t get closer than 1.8L. Has the ability.
Foreign Embassy: On previous prep is outclassed today at the distance.
Joshua’s Might: Ignore runs last prep apart from first up. Went very close and will go close again today. Will be going back and certainly needs luck to win but has the ability.
Lucky Elvis: Has to find 3 lengths today.
True Brave: Progressive and can run good times. Barrier 12 an issue to slot in but has the ability on past two runs.
Haakon: Nice run first up but does need to improve again today. A few better it looks like.
It’s Fred: Ignore first up run and look to second start for ability. Can run a nice race but needs to have improved big time today.
Manhattan Gold: Very poor last start and wasn’t suited by the Good track it seems. On previous run can go close but not suited by the extra distance it seems.
Our Recital: Doesn’t run well first up and seems to want further distances.
Taat Sensation: Average breeding but won a trial at track over the 990m. Should run well from that form today.
Seattle Storm: Fairly average trial. Needs to find much more than that effort today.
Soltero: On previous runs is outclassed at weights.
Rhodesia: Need’s to have grown an extra leg or wings.
Diello Rose: Not the worst in the race but can’t win.
Benzaiten: Keeps going backwards since first prep. Can’t have today.
Cranbourne Race 4
Cult Of Isis: Step up to a much harder class today and should struggle once again. Has the ability to run ok but up against it here.
De Master: Big second behind King Krovanh last start at massive odds. Showed huge improvement and could show further improvement today.
Edgardo: Not the best breeding, but not bad either. Big question mark on the horse. Market will guide.
Majestico: Not the most impressive breeding but have to take note the horse debuted in a 2YO race. Didn’t run well though. Could have trained on. Big question marks.
River Cruise: Ran well last start in some of the poorer 2YO races on offer. Can go close but has to improve on first up run.
Rocky Realm: On last two runs can’t win. Has to find lengths.
Soldiers Hill: Times not good enough here.
Wild Erp: Potential forgive run last start but should have ran much better. Up against it again today.
Boogielicious: Solid first run. Needs to have improved.
Noble Star: Unlucky to not win first up. Time of the race was fairly poor but a repeat could go close.
Zombie Dancer: Big run from back of the field in a slowly ran race. Go close if at best.
Barbara’s Girl: Forgive run first up. Still shouldn’t measure up.
Whistlejacket: On first up run, No.
Wind Dancer: No.
Shibby: Didn’t show enough.
Cranbourne Race 5
Kimiko: Good win last start and in stronger class today. Has the ability to go very close from the front.
Princess Mossman: Come back in super form this prep winning in class last start. Up 2kg today and will run another game race from barrier 1.
Street Diamond: Huge step down in class today back to a winable grade. Keeps going close but can’t break through in this grade. Will be there at the finish.
Harlequin Manner: Ignore last start where ridden from the back (not suited) and expect a more forward ride today. If given this ride, will go close.
Bella Mews: Has the ability but generally needs to get a bit of luck. Weighted well off 54kg today.
Gracious Goddess: Outclassed on only a maiden win.
Miasheeny Ruby: Will run well as long as jumps ok and enjoys the track. Will sit forward. Big chance.
Quaddie leg one: 2, 4, 8
Cranbourne Race 6
Niptious: Big win last start in a harder grade of race at distance. Up 5.5kg on that win but obviously down in class. Will go forward again today and be hard to chase down.
Tailorman: Never won at the distance or in this class, but did win well last start over the 1600m. On last three runs has the ability but looks badly weighted today.
French Tang: Hard to place today. Looks well weighted in this class when you consider first up win and 2nd to Your Honour in a good time over the 2000m. Issue is the distance.
Mightier: Looks to be a horse with a large amount of quality and ever improving. Won well first up and ran strongly last start for 2nd. Needs to improve once again today.
Mr Birchy: Looks slightly outclassed but on previous run can go well again today and go close.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 6, 7
Cranbourne Race 7
Cyclone Andy: Disappointing first up at the valley over the 950m trip when went too far back. Will sit further forward today as expected and go close off a more suitable distance.
Albertique: On previous runs doesn’t seem to have the fitness to run the 1200m out in a strong time. Will still run well but a lot of work early.
Eastside: 1 win 2 places from 3 at track. Has over 7 months off but runs very well first up with a win and a place. Unsure where he will sit in the run today but is weighted to win in this class today.
Work The Line: Never won first up but is 1 from 1 at track. Won 2 from 4 at distance and last prep won over the 1300m in decent time. Barrier 2 suits. If trained on runs well and will go close.
Ferocia: On previous prep looks outclassed but did run well first up. Does need to improve still.
Montana Man: Hard form lines to follow. Won a 2YO race last prep and runs well at the distance. Barrier 11 a big issue and will have to work hard early to get a good slot. Won very well first up this prep. Could go close.
Railblazer: Has to improve today on first up run. Has the ability.
Sherwood: Hard to place today. Won his maiden well first prep and ran on well second up before failing third up. Been off 5 months. Market will guide.
Sunday Wonder: Hard to have today on previous runs.
Emmooki’s Star: Has won first up previously and won 2 from 8 at distance. Will need to have trained on very well today to have a chance.
Rock Lane: Been off 4 months. Price yard and they always get set for winable races. Will go close.
Quaddie leg three: 1, 3, 4, 7
Cranbourne Race 8
MightyBlitz: Doesn’t seem to be in the form to win today. Down in class but won 1 from 19 at class and needs to find more than has shown previously.
Phizup: Down in class but never won at distance and never won first up. Poor last prep and off that can’t win off this weight.
Audino: Maiden winner. Can’t back on that form.
Beau Brommell: Has ability and could improve on first up run.
Boltonian: Ignore run two back and focus on last start when winning in good time. Go close today.
Molon Lave: Will find this hard today. Has a chance but looks outclassed.
Day and Night: Big unknown at the distance. On form this prep can’t have.
Dayton: Last start second over rated. Happy to be against today.
Notforgiven: Hard to place. Could run well.
Angela’s Dream: Ran very well last start at Sale and previous to that at course. Suited by step up in distance today and will go close.
Crown Gem: Outclassed on runs this prep. Best has been 4th from 12 starts.
Quaddie leg four: 4, 5, 10, 12
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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