Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – Simpsons Construction Handicap BM-78
Gear Changes: Firehouse Rock – Blinkers Again.
1. Harveys True Heart: Good second 2nd up and over this distance on past runs. Back to a dry track today and first up run will have him switched on. Rates very well in this grade… lowest he has seen in the past 10 runs infact… deserving of the top weight and looks a top chance.
2. Leveraction: Runs his best on a dry track and gets that again today on his favourite course. On speed runners should be suited and Payne onboard looks a bonus. Expect them to run it a little faster out front today this deep into his prep to run them ragged. A good ride gives the horse every chance.
3. Firehouse Rock: Blinkers on. Wasn’t the same horse we saw the previous prep first up on a soft track. Blinkers should make a world of difference but barrier is certainly tricky today.Should get his chances.
4. Rainbow Storm: Should be closer to the speed today. Finished off okay first up at Flemington and goes well 2nd up. Measured up to this class in the past over this distance and has the early speed to position positive. If the money comes.. you know.
5. So Does He: Found alot of trouble in running last start at Flemington and you can’t dismiss that run which saw him finish a valid 4th. Back to dryer track a key today… barrier the issue.
6. Ustinov’s Fury: Will be pushing forward today… last three runs on wet were okay… but never won on anything but Good so looks suited here. Measured up to higher class in the past and will be on speed.
7. Gerontius: Disappointing last prep failing to get a win. Best runs over further than this in past. Never won first up.
8. Magnatune: Never won on a dry track in the past, best seen on the wet.
9. Strong Hand: Won three in a row on the wet surfaces with his only defeat on dry. Much harder today.
10. Scherzoso: Easy kill last start over in ADelaide and this looks much harder. Has ability but best seen on tracks with a bit more sting out for mine. Will be too short today with Oliver on board for mine also.
11. Tunes: Hasn’t won in 8 runs this prep in easier grade. No thanks even back on the dryer track.
12. Scapa CoveYet to see a Good track all prep. A long time between drinks and this looks far beyond him.
Comments: A very competitive race. Strong Hand is your favourite and massive unders while Scherzoso is going to start unders also on my ratings. So Does He deserves to be respected but there isn’t much value in the price. Firehouse Rock will have a tricky time from the barrier and i can’t see a huge piece of value in the price either. The two runners at the right prices in the race are the top two in the market. Leveraction will be leading and very hard to get past on a rail that should be helping leaders while Harveys True Heart will appreciate the tempo i’m expecting to be put on and has a very good record over this distance and in harder company.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Leveraction 1 unit to win & Harveys True Heart 0.75 units to win.
