p>Moonee Valley Race 3 – 2040m – SAJ Fruit Supply Handicap BM-90
Gear Changes: Count of Limonade – Blinkers First Time, Albonetti – Blinkers First Time.
1. Count of Limonade: Two very disappointing runs to kick off this campaign. Blinkers first time will certainly do the trick up to 2040m today also. Could produce anything today back in this grade… have to consider!
3. Honourable Aussie: Old mate was super poor last start at MV in open class.. well up in weights today and back in class, did win very well at the bool two back. Can argue his best runs are on good tracks and he measured up this prep in this grade previously. Looks the clear leader?
4. Turner Bayou: Horrible run first up over 1700m last start at Flemington. Has won 2nd up in the past and has won over distance… but best runs have been over further and on wetter.
5. Shenzhou Steeds: 2nd up last start at Flemington surprised many including me holding off our best bet of the day given a very good ride by Melham. Certainly a very good run and will appreciate the distance increase again today… but back to a dryer track is the issue.
6. Vizhaka: Three runs to date this prep and failed to get within 4 lengths. Struggle to see a turn around in form here on Shenzhou.
7. Prizum: Hasn’t won since 2012 but he is knocking on the poor the 9yo… very good run 2nd to Refulgent last start at Flemington. Best runs on longer straights though in the past. Can run well again today.
8. Try Four: Rolled as $1.40 favourite last start in Adelaide. 4L win previous to that. Back to dryer track today, struggle to have him on top here.
9. Albonetti: Alby continues to suggest she is ready to win with a nice run 4th last start at Flemington… but you know she will be out the back today in a race that shouldn’t be suited to back markets. Happy to take on at the price even though i think the horse is good.
10. Temps Voleur: Surprised with a win back in class last start at Sandown. Had been knocking on the door. Can’t see the extra step up again today though.
11. Lacey’s Revenge: Last win was in R-58… 6 runs this prep and hasn’t been within 4.8L and that was in R-58… can’t be serious.
Comments: Another race, another bunch of horses under the odds. Temps Voleur is the biggest unders of the race, it just won’t measure up. Albonetti will be out the back today and i don’t expect the horse to be suited by the tempo or biased rail. Try Four is also heavily under the correct odds. You just have to take the run two back off the record and the form isn’t impressive at all. Prizum is running well but hasn’t won since 2012, so can you really take $6s especially knowing the horse performs best on longer straights? So who do i like then? Shenzhou Steeds is hard to ignore after the very good run 2nd up. Has measured up on Good surfaces in the past in harder company, but is only around the right price, not alot of value. Honourable Aussie will be on the speed today and setting the tempo… the rail will be good for him and he looks a great E/W price, well overs on my ratings here on previous runs. Count of Limonade with blinkers on today is the clear value in the race at $30+.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Honourable Aussie E/W. Smaller bet Count of Limonade.
