2016 Elimination Finals A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

Last week was the final round of the regular season and some interesting results were thrown up. Adelaide drew first blood with their win over Melbourne City on Friday night, but they had to wait and see the results of the other matches to see if they’d claim the Premiers Plate. There were also some surprises in there with only one home side winning for the weekend, and that was Sydney who looked to be in a major form slump prior to that. Round 27 kicked off on Friday night when Melbourne City hosted Adelaide. It looked a tight match on paper, and with both teams still a chance at the Premiership we knew it was going to be a hard fought battle. The game went Adelaide’s way and I was pretty surprised to see them come out and win like they did. Melbourne City has been in solid form, and at home they are usually very hard to beat, but Adelaide did it, and definitely deserve the three points and the Premiership. Central Coast and Newcastle faced off in a bit of a dead rubber, with neither teams a chance of playing finals it was one last game for them both before they can go on holidays. Unsurprisingly Central Coast put up little fight (like they have all season) and Newcastle ran away with a 4-2 win to finish off the season. Newcastle have shown a little bit over the past month, so maybe they have something to work with next year, but Central Coast are going to have to make some drastic changes in my opinion. Saturday night was a great dual between Melbourne Victory and Brisbane. Brisbane needed the win to land the Premiership, but Melbourne Victory had other plans. It was a back and forth match with Brisbane having the upper hand throughout, but Melbourne Victory’s defense kept them in the game, and after 90 minutes the game finished at 0-0, leaving Adelaide with the Premiership.

Western Sydney travelled to New Zealand for their last game of the regular season to take on Wellington. At the start of the round they thought they might have a chance at the Premiership by winning this game, but with Adelaide winning on Friday, they quickly realized they were only playing for second place. That didn’t stop them trying though, because second place gets you straight into the Semi Finals. They were once again dominant, winning 2-0, but realistically Wellington didn’t really have too much to play for, and it showed.

The last game of the regular season was on Sunday afternoon with Perth travelling to Sydney. Perth has been one of the most in form teams since Christmas, so I was very surprised to see them go down the way they did. Sydney hadn’t shown a lot over the last month, since they realized that they were no longer a chance of playing finals, but they came out with some of their best on Sunday. Sydney ended up winning the match 4-0, and I really don’t know where it came from. At least it’s a good sign for them going into next season.

With Adelaide winning the Premiership and Western Sydney finishing second, they’ve earned a week off. Next week they’ll play the winners of Brisbane/Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City/Perth.  The Elimination Finals look like two cracking matches, but I think that both home sides have a significant advantage leading into their respective games. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 202 selections; I have had 77 winners, 105 losses and 20 pushes. This equates to (at betting to win 1 unit) -7.96 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -4.12%.

With only a few weeks of A-League left for the season, hopefully we can get the cash this week.

Best Value: 
1st:    Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.20.
2nd:    Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.58.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory

Friday 17 April, 7:35pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Friday night sees a replay of last weeks match between Brisbane and Melbourne Victory that ended in a draw, this time it’s Brisbane who gets the significant home ground advantage though. In last rounds 0-0 match between these two sides it was Brisbane who came out of it with a pass mark, they dominated possession, shots, crosses, corners and tackles. It was quite amazing that none of their 18 shots found the back of the net. With the match being played at AAMI Park, I would of thought it would be Melbourne Victory that would be winning at least some of these crucial stats, but they found little, with the most damning being that they only managed 4 shots for the 90 minutes, and only 1 of them was on target. Most thought that the only reason the game ended in a draw was the brilliant performance from Melbourne Victory’s goalkeeper Thomas, who many named as “Man of the Match”. After lasts weeks efforts on the road, Brisbane have no excuse to not win now that they’re back at home. They’re a big time team and I can’t see them dropping out in the first week of finals. Sportsbet have gone up $2.20, I think this is crazy, they were $2.25 last week when they were on the road, and this price surely won’t last. If they don’t start the match odds-on, I’d be very surprised. Also at $1.58 they are value in the Draw No Bet market.

Last 10 games:    
Brisbane                       4
Melbourne Victory        1
Draw                             5

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane                   $1.53
Melbourne Victory    $7.30
Draw                         $4.76

Market Price:  
Brisbane                   $2.20 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $3.60 William Hill
Draw                         $3.60 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane                   $1.21
Melbourne Victory    $5.76

Market Price:    
Brisbane                   $1.58 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $2.60 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                     $2.92
Over                       $1.52

Market Price:    
Under                     $2.26 Sportsbet
Over                       $1.65 Bet365, Unibet

Value:         Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.20.
Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.58.

Melbourne City v Perth Glory

Sunday 17 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The second Elimination Final this weekend sees Perth travel east to take on Melbourne City at AAMI Park. Melbourne City was very disappointing last week, they were hosting Adelaide, and they had a chance to move to the top of the table in the final week of the season (future games would of knocked them off anyway), but they succumbed to a 2-0 loss. There is no doubt that Adelaide are a good team, they did win the Premiership after all, but if you’re at home, and you’re classing yourself as a possible contender, losing at home at a crucial part of the season just isn’t good enough. Now they didn’t play terribly, but just couldn’t find the back of the net, whereas Adelaide managed to find it on a couple of occasions. After some pretty incredible recent form from Perth, last week they looked very average. They were playing away to Sydney who has had a terrible second half of the season, but Perth never even got into the match. Sydney smashed them, 4-0, granted two of the goals came in the last 10 minutes when they game was all but over, but still. Perth got off more shots than Sydney, but they just couldn’t hit a target. If they can forget about that game, and think back to their previous form they’ll be right in this, but that’s always hard to do coming into possibly your last game of the season. With both teams coming into the match off losses there’s a chance we could see either team fall to bits under pressure, but with everything being equal Melbourne City should be able win and move into the Semi Finals. While both teams’ form is similar, the home ground advantage for Melbourne City is huge. Perth would of only just got back home after flying to Sydney, and now they are flying across the country again. I want to be on Melbourne City, but the price just isn’t there. I’ve rated them $2.00, and the best around is $2.10, which isn’t enough of a variance to make it a good bet in my opinion, but if they drift to $2.18 or longer, then I think they become a betting proposition. At this stage I’m sitting on my hands and staying out, but keep an eye on the market.

Last 10 games:    
Melbourne City        2
Perth                        3
Draw                        5

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City         $2.00
Perth                         $4.10
Draw                         $3.91

Market Price:    
Melbourne City         $2.10 Sportsbet
Perth                         $3.60 Bet365
Draw                         $3.75 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City      $1.49
Perth                      $3.05

Market Price:    
Melbourne City     $1.53 Sportsbet
Perth                    $2.63 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                    $3.29
Over                      $1.44

Market Price:    
Under                    $2.60 Bet265
Over                      $1.51 Unibet

Value:         No value.



I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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