2016 Round 25 A-League Preview & Bets

Interesting round in the A-League last week with three of the five matches finishing in draws, which doesn’t happen too often. The only winners to come out of the round were Melbourne City and Perth, who were both well fancied, but there were some other favourites that didn’t fair so well. Friday night kicked off with Melbourne City hosting Brisbane, and it wasn’t looking good for the home side as they went into halftime 1-0 down. The second half was all theirs though. Melbourne City put on three goals to give them what ended up being a comprehensive win. Central Coast managed to get their first point in seven games with a draw against Sydney. They were 2-0 down, but with Sydney’s recent form it wasn’t too surprising to see Central Coast come back with two late goals to tie things up. The big battle of the weekend was between Western Sydney and Adelaide, who are both fighting out for the top of the table. With a win here I think Western Sydney would have enough points on the board to claim the Premiership, but alas that didn’t happen. It ended up being a 0-0 draw, which has left the top spot up for grabs again; the top four teams only have only two points between them. Perth continued their outstanding form with an away win against Wellington. They ended up winning 2-1, but Wellington’s goal came during injury time, so meant little. elbourne Victory were extremely disappointing on Sunday, they drew 1-1 with Newcastle at home, which isn’t good enough for them. Also, Newcastle was down to ten men for the whole second half, so it just adds to Melbourne Victory’s dismal effort. Tough week ahead, only a couple of games that look to have any real value in them, make sure you read the write-ups though incase you’re interested in something, hopefully it might help you make a selection.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 185 selections; I have had 70 winners, 96 losses and 19 pushes. This equates to (at even staking) -9.85 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -5.32%.

Have a great Easter long weekend.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.00.
2nd:    Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.60.
3rd:    Brisbane Roar/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.66.
4th:    Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.87.

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Friday 25 March, 7:4pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Two of the biggest clubs in the A-League face off on Good Friday in the always-entertaining matchup between Melbourne Victory and Western Sydney. Melbourne Victory is coming off a very poor game. They were hosting Newcastle, so automatically you think that they should get all three points, but to make things even easier for them, before halftime Newcastle went down to ten men. But that didn’t stop Melbourne Victory from struggling, they were 1-0 down early, and could only manage to get one goal back, leaving the game at a 1-1 draw. Luckily for them Sydney has been in average form, so they are still holding onto that last crucial finals position. Western Sydney let backers down too last week, although theirs was a tougher assignment. They were hosting Adelaide, and while they didn’t lose, they still only came away with a draw, which must have been a little disappointing, they could of nearly put the Premiership away with a win. I don’t know why, but I think Melbourne Victory should be winning this, both teams haven’t been in the best form, but I think given another chance at home, Melbourne Victory should be able to get back to winning ways. I was pretty surprised that as much as $2.60 was available for them, I thought they would be only a touch over even money. At that price I think they have to be a bit of value, and one of the better plays of the week.

Last 5 games:  
Melbourne Victory    3
Western Sydney    1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.11
Western Sydney    $3.72
Draw            $3.89

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.60 William Hill
Western Sydney    $2.85 Unibet
Draw            $3.55 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.57
Western Sydney    $2.77

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory    $1.87 Sportsbet
Western Sydney    $2.04 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.28
Over            $1.78

Market Price:    
Under            $2.21 Sportsbet
Over            $1.70 bet365

Value:         Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.60.
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.87.

Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory

Saturday 26 March, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Saturday afternoon football gets under way with a matchup between Newcastle and Perth at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle got a point that they definitely wouldn’t of expected to get when they travelled south to face Melbourne Victory last week. They went in as big underdogs, and went down to ten men within the first half. I still don’t know how, but they managed to hold on for a 1-1 draw. Whether they played great, or Melbourne Victory played terrible I don’t know, but they’ll definitely take that point. Perth just continued on their way with yet another win, that is eight from their last nine matches, I’m starting to think they will be a real force in the finals. This time around it was Wellington, and it was over in New Zealand, so Perth had to travel a massive distance, but that didn’t stop them. They won 2-1, but Wellington’s goal came in the dying minutes so it hardly counts, they were once again dominant. Perth should be winning this, all this travel doesn’t help, but their form is too good to discount. Disappointed the bookmakers have their pricing basically the same as mine, so there isn’t any real value at the moment. I’d keep an eye out though, because if Perth drifts out to $2.20, I think they are worth a bet.

Last 5 games:  
Newcastle        0
Perth            4
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price: 
   
Newcastle        $4.07
Perth            $2.01
Draw            $3.90

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $3.60 Bet365
Perth            $2.05 Unibet
Draw            $3.65 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $3.03
Perth            $1.49

Market Price:  
Newcastle        $2.63 Bet365
Perth            $1.50 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.40
Over            $1.71

Market Price:    
Under            $2.23 Unibet
Over            $1.68 Sportsbet

Value:         No value.

Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC

Saturday 26 March, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Saturday night see’s what should be an incredibly one-sided affair between Brisbane and Sydney. Brisbane was slightly disappointing last week, but I don’t now how many people thought they really could win on the road to Melbourne City. They put up a good fight, and led into halftime. But they were over run in the second half, and ended up going down 3-1. It hurt their ladder position as they slipped down to third, but I think they still have something to offer in this Premiership race. Sydney, how they have fallen from grace, a month or so ago they were considered contenders, now they are nothing more than pretenders and I really can’t see them making the finals. They were playing Central Coast last week, so you would think it is a given that you’d get all three points, but they didn’t they had to settle for just one. They even led 2-0 going into the last ten minutes of the game, but a couple of lapses down back and Central Coast squared it up 2-2. I hate to say it but I think Sydney’s season is all but over. Brisbane has no excuses to not win this, and they need it to keep their Premiership hopes alive. I honestly can’t believe two bookies have put Brisbane up at even money; this looks way over the odds to me. They should be a lot shorter, I’d be happy to take them Head to Head or in the Draw No Bet market. Also the Over 2.5 Goals market looks very generous at $1.66, hard to see there being fewer than three goals scored in this.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane        1
Sydney            2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.58
Sydney            $6.70
Draw            $4.63

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $2.00 Bet365, Palmerbet
Sydney            $3.80 Sportsbet
Draw            $3.80 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price: 
Brisbane        $1.24
Sydney            $5.25

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $1.50 William Hill
Sydney            $2.91 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.17
Over            $1.46

Market Price:  
Under            $2.26 Sportsbet
Over            $1.66 William Hill

Value:         Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.00.
Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.50.
Brisbane Roar/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.66.

Adelaide United v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday 27 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Here’s a one-sided match if I’ve ever seen one, it’s Adelaide hosting Central Coast. Adelaide were good last week, they were up against it, playing Western Sydney away, but managed to contain them for the whole game. Unfortunately for them, they were unable to score themselves, but from that fixture, a draw is a good result. They’re now within striking distance of the top of the table with only three games to come. Central Coast somehow pulled out a miraculous draw last week. They’ve been in poor form, and things were looking the same as always when they were 2-0 against Sydney with only about ten minutes left. But then thanks to O’Donovan and Ashcroft they bagged a couple of goals and tied it all up in the dying minutes. I’m not sure where it came from, but it was impressive on their behalf. Adelaide just need to turn up to Hindmarsh Stadium to win this in my opinion, it’s that simple. I would love for there to be a half decent price around about Adelaide, but unfortunately there is not, they are actually quite big unders at the current $1.31. This is yet another frustrating match that we are just going to have to sit out of. They’ll be plenty of goals too, but again the market as taken that into consideration, and there’s now value there either.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        4
Central Coast        1
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.42
Central Coast        $9.36
Draw            $5.25

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $1.31 Unibet
Central Coast        $9.50 Bet365
Draw            $5.60 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.15
Central Coast        $7.58

Market Price: 
Adelaide        $1.10 William Hill
Central Coast        $8.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.41
Over            $1.42

Market Price:    
Under            $2.88 Bet365
Over            $1.43 Sportsbet

Value:         No value.

Melbourne City v Wellington

Monday 28 March, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

We finish the round off with yet another short priced favourite, this time it’s Melbourne City who are at home to Wellington. Melbourne City were very good last week, they were at home to Brisbane and were expected to win, but when they walked off the pitch at halftime they were 1-0 down. They came out firing in the second half though. They tied things up shortly into the second half then it look like it might stay at 1-1, but a couple of late goals for Melbourne City put the game beyond doubt, leaving them with a 3-1 win. That comeback win has kept them in the Premiership fight, and they’ve now snuck up to second on the table, I’m sure better than they expected a month or so ago. Wellington would have disappointed their followers last week with a loss at home to Perth. Now Perth has been in great form, no doubting that, but it is a long road trip for them, and Wellington was expected to be competitive, but they weren’t. The final score was 2-1, but the game wasn’t that close, Perth never looked like losing, they had 21 shots at goal compared to 4. Their season is done now and they look destined to finish in eighth or ninth place. Melbourne City must win this match, and much like the previous two favourites, they have no excuse not to. Melbourne City is so close to being a good enough price to make them a selection, but they just come up short. If they drift to $1.65 then I could touch them, but until then we just have to wait.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    3
Wellington        1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.51
Wellington        $7.08
Draw            $5.13

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.60 William Hill
Wellington        $5.50 Unibet
Draw            $4.70 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.21
Wellington        $5.70

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.30 William Hill
Wellington        $4.35 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.41
Over            $1.42

Market Price:  
Under            $3.10 Bet365
Over            $1.40 Unibet

Value:         No value.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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