2016 Round 26 A-League Preview & Bets

It was a pretty straight forward round last week; all five favourites won their respective matches. With Melbourne Victory beating Western Sydney, it opened the door for Melbourne City who has now jumped up to the top of the table. There is less than a game between the top four teams though, so the Premiership really could be anybody’s. Although Melbourne Victory were favourites against Western Sydney, I think their fans would have been nervous as their form recently hasn’t been the best, but thanks to Bozanic who netted a couple of goals, they were back to their winning ways. Perth travelled to Newcastle, and unsurprisingly came away with all three points. They’ve really been one of the form teams over the last couple of months and have been doing very little wrong. After falling behind early to Sydney, Brisbane ended up coming away with a much-needed win. This victory moved them to second place on the ladder, equal on points with Melbourne City. Adelaide had very little to worry about as they hosted Central Coast last week. They won the match easily with the game finishing at 4-2.  They had 67% of possession, so there was never going to be a different result than an Adelaide win. The weekend finished up on Monday with Melbourne City hosting Wellington. This was another predictable result; the home side easily won 3-0. This was an important win for them, moving them to the top of the table, and their goal difference is far superior to any other side.

All four of the Premiership contenders are split up this week, so they all get the chance to hold their position, or move even higher. Melbourne City looks to have the toughest task though as they have to travel west to take on Perth who have been red-hot lately.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 190 selections; I have had 75 winners, 96 losses and 19 pushes. This equates to (at betting to win a unit) -5.17 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -2.81%.

Happy punting.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.18.
2nd:    Perth Glory – Head to Head – $2.20.
3rd:    Perth Glory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.43.
4th:    Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $9.00.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Central Coast Mariners

Friday 1 April, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium

The second last A-League round of the year gets underway on Friday night with a very short priced favourite in Western Sydney as they host Central Coast. Western Sydney had a tough match last week as they were playing away to Melbourne Victory. After going behind after only a few minutes they were always on the back foot and in trouble. I don’t think you can diminish their form on that game though; it was always going to be a hard one. Central Coast never had a hope as they were playing Adelaide away last week. To their credit, they weren’t completely embarrassed, and actually led early in the piece, but ended up going down 4-2. That’s as good as could be expected really. Western Sydney should win this one very easily, I’ve rated them $1.44, and they don’t get much shorter than that. I surprised how short Western Sydney has come up, $1.25 is the best around, that’s almost unheard of in football. I hate it, but I think Central Coast is a tiny bit of value, how often do you see a team at double figure odds. If you are brave enough to take this, I definitely think $9.00 in the Draw No Bet market will be the way to go.

Last 5 games:  
Western Sydney    2
Central Coast        1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.44
Central Coast        $9.17
Draw            $5.09

Market Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.25 Everywhere
Central Coast        $11.00 Unibet
Draw            $6.00 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.16
Central Coast        $7.37

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.07 Bet365
Central Coast        $9.00 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.88
Over            $1.35

Market Price: 
Under            $3.03 Sportsbet
Over            $1.40 Everywhere

Value:         Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $9.00.
Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $11.00.

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 2 April, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Melbourne Victory has the big road trip east this week as they play Wellington away in New Zealand. Wellington got schooled last week when they played the other Melbourne side last week, City. It was away, and they went into the match as big underdogs, and that showed. They were well and truly outplayed, and never really looked like getting into the match. The final score was 3-0, which was pretty much to be expected. Melbourne Victory had a good win last week against Western Sydney. They went into the match as favourites, but their recent form had been less than enviable. Things started to look a lot better for them though early in the match when Bozanic scored a few minutes in. He added another in the second half and the game was all over. They’re now going to safely hold their finals position, but it’s hard to see them moving higher than sixth. Back at home this week, Wellington should be able to get another win on the board for the season. I’m pretty happy with the price that has gone up about them too, $2.90 seems a pretty good as I’ve rated them $2.22. You can also get better than even money for them with your money back if it’s a draw.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington        2
Melbourne Victory    3
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $2.22
Melbourne Victory    $3.41
Draw            $3.91

Market Price:  
Wellington        $2.90 bet365, Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $2.35 William Hill
Draw            $3.70 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $1.65
Melbourne Victory    $2.54

Market Price:    
Wellington        $2.18 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $1.70 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.55
Over            $1.64

Market Price:    
Under            $2.45 Sportsbet
Over            $1.60 Bet365

Value:         Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $2.90.
Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.18.

Sydney FC v Adelaide United

Saturday 2 April, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

The tightest match of the weekend looks to be this matchup on Saturday night between Sydney and Adelaide. Last weeks loss to Brisbane put an end to any chance that Sydney had of playing finals. They started the game off well too, scoring the first goal, but after that it was one-way traffic. Brisbane had put on three goals before Sydney could find a response, and by that time the game was all but done. They ended up losing 3-2, adding to their less than memorable season. Adelaide got the job done against Central Coast last week, as expected. After trailing earlier they put them to the sword, netting four goals. They ran out 4-2 winners and are looking as good as any team heading into finals. This looks a really tight match to my eye, I give the slight advantage to Adelaide, but I can easily see it going the other way too. Bookmakers have marked the teams basically exactly the same as me here, Adelaide is slightly overs in my opinion, but not enough to be a betting proposition.

Last 5 games:    
Sydney            1
Adelaide        3
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price: 
Sydney            $2.94
Adelaide        $2.53
Draw            $3.79

Market Price:    
Sydney            $2.65 Sportsbet, Unibet
Adelaide        $2.60 Bet365
Draw            $3.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Sydney            $2.17
Adelaide        $1.86

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.93 Unibet
Adelaide        $1.90 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.28
Over            $1.78

Market Price:    
Under            $2.17 Unibet
Over            $1.70 Bet365, Palmerbet

Value:         No value.

Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 3 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Another one-sided affair here, this time it is Brisbane playing host to Newcastle. While it wasn’t a walk in the park for them, Brisbane managed to get all three points out of their match with Sydney. They slipped behind at the start of the match, but fought back to take a 3-1 lead. They allowed another goal late in the game, but it didn’t really matter by that stage, they’d already secured the win. Newcastle was hosting Perth last Saturday, and in my opinion Perth is nearly one of the toughest teams to beat at the moment. After 70 minutes of action, the game was still sitting at 0-0, but then Perth turned on the overdrive and kicked two goals clear. Newcastle got a goal back in injury time, but that was all they could manage. Brisbane must win this match, on paper they should be winning, and with the Premiership still alive, they can’t afford to drop any points here. Unfortunately this is another match where the bookies aren’t letting us on at all, all the prices match up nearly exactly. Another sit out for me.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane        3
Newcastle        0
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.48
Newcastle        $7.76
Draw            $5.09

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $1.44 Everywhere
Newcastle        $7.00 Everywhere
Draw            $4.90 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.19
Newcastle        $6.24

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $1.18 William Hill
Newcastle        $5.60 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.40
Over            $1.71

Market Price:    
Under            $2.55 Unibet
Over            $1.52 Bet365

Value:         No value.

Perth Glory v Melbourne City

Sunday 3 April, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

This looks like the match of the round to me, we’ve got Melbourne City desperate to hold onto the top spot on the ladder, but they’ve got to travel to Perth, who is playing some of the best football in the league lately. Perth had yet another win last week, this time it was against the low rated Newcastle, but none-the-less, they continue to get good results. The game was in Newcastle, and they didn’t have a lot of possession, so the 2-1 win was a good effort still. They’re now within four points of the top of the table, who would of thought that at Christmas! Melbourne City were dominant last week, they hosted Wellington and never gave them a sniff. They ran out very easy 3-0 winners. That win moved them to the top of the table, a position they won’t be giving up lightly. I think Perth are very well placed to win this match, their form has been outstanding, and back at home, they are even tougher to beat. $2.20 is available at Palmerbet, that’s a great price considering I have them rated odds-on. Also the $1.43 for Over 2.5 Goals, even though short, is still value to me, hard to see there not being at least three or four goals bagged in this one.

Last 5 games:
Perth            2
Melbourne City    1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth            $1.99
Melbourne City    $4.08
Draw            $3.97

Market Price:    
Perth            $2.20 Palmerbet
Melbourne City    $3.10 Unibet
Draw            $3.85 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $1.49
Melbourne City    $3.05

Market Price:    
Perth            $1.62 Bet365
Melbourne City    $2.30 William Hill, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $4.20
Over            $1.31

Market Price:    
Under            $2.95 Unibet
Over            $1.43 Sportsbet

Value:         Perth Glory – Head to Head – $2.20.
Perth Glory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.43.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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