2016 Round 27 A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

It was another straightforward weekend as far as results were concerned with all five favourites getting the win, three of who were in the top four on the table. We’ve had yet another league leader change, it seems to be happening on a weekly basis. This time it is Brisbane who is in the box seat, but they have a tough match coming up, so the fight for the Premiership is still alive. On Friday night Western Sydney played Central Coast, and it was nothing more than a walk in the park for them. They won 4-1, but you’d expect nothing less from them at this stage of the season. Melbourne Victory had a slightly tougher assignment; they had to travel to New Zealand to take on Wellington. I personally thought they’d have a tough time over there after their recent form slump but they hit the ground running in a massive way. In less than 10 minutes Berisha had found the back of the net, and they never looked back from there, running out easy winners. Sydney’s season was officially over after the previous round, so it’s not surprising to see them put up little fight against Adelaide. The game was in Sydney, so stats said it should be a close match, but with Sydney having no ambition to play well, Adelaide won the match 2-0 without too much trouble.

Round 26 finished with the highlight of the round, Perth hosting Melbourne City. It was a scoreless first half, but things changed after the break. Perth put on three goals and looked like they would come away with an easy win, but Melbourne City came back, netting two goals for themselves. They couldn’t do anymore though, and Perth got yet another win on the board.

This is an extremely interesting final round of the A-League season. There is still four teams that can win the Premiership, not sure if I’ve seen that in any competition before. Brisbane, Adelaide and Western Sydney have the upper hand on Melbourne City, but they are all playing away as opposed to Melbourne City who is at home. I personally think it is between Brisbane and Western Sydney.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 196 selections; I have had 77 winners, 100 losses and 19 pushes. This equates to (at betting to win a unit) -4.77 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -2.53%.

@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $2.38.
2nd:    Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.70.
3rd:    Central Coast Mariners/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.45.
4th:    Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $3.50.

Melbourne City v Adelaide United

Friday 8 April, 7:40pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

There are three matches this weekend that could decide the Premiership, but this is clearly the most important with both teams still in the hunt, it’s between Melbourne City and Brisbane at AAMI Park on Friday night. Melbourne City is coming off a disappointing, if not half expected result last week. They were playing Perth away, and Perth is probably the toughest team to play away at the moment I think. They were on the top of the table and were hoping to hold that position but it wasn’t to be. The game looked as though it was going to be a belting with Perth leading 3-0 with only about 20 minutes to play, but Melbourne City fought back with two goals, but that’s all they could manage. With that loss they’ve dropped from first, down to fourth, and now they’ll need to rely on other results to have a chance at the Premiership. Adelaide continued their good form with a solid 2-0 win against Sydney. The game was at Allianz Stadium, so it was a good effort by them, but with Sydney out of finals contention, they looked pretty easy to knock off. Adelaide are now second on the ladder, only a point behind Brisbane. This will be a tough game for them, but they must get at least a draw to give themselves a chance at the Premiership. I think this should be a pretty straightforward game for Melbourne City, they’ve got the form on the board, and a win here will move them to the top of the ladder, although they’ll be reliant on other results to see if they take home the Premiers Plate. Melbourne City is tempting at $2.20, but I don’t think it is quite enough value; the better way to attack this match is taking Melbourne City at $1.70 with money back if it’s a draw. I think they should be a fair bit shorter in this market, and it looks a good way to kick off the weekend.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    3
Adelaide        2
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.02
Adelaide        $4.11
Draw            $3.84

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.20 Everywhere
Adelaide        $3.20 Bet365
Draw            $3.80 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.49
Adelaide        $3.04

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.70 William Hill
Adelaide        $2.25 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.34
Over            $1.43

Market Price:  
Under            $2.80 William Hill, Unibet
Over            $1.47 Sportsbet

Value:         Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.70.

Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 9 April, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

It’s the last game of the season for these two sides as neither can make the finals, it’s Central Coast hosting Newcastle. Central Coast never really had a chance last week, they were playing Western Sydney away, and so it wasn’t much surprise to see them lose 4-1. After Saturday they’ll be on holidays, and I think a lot of the players need it, as they haven’t been playing very well at all for at least the second half of the season. Newcastle’s task last Sunday was just as tough, they had Brisbane away, and no one expected them to come out of that match with anything. They actually played quite well, and even led the game 1-0 at the hour mark, but it wasn’t to be as Brisbane scored a couple of goals to leave Newcastle empty handed. Newcastle should probably be winning this game based on recent performances compared to Central Coasts, but being at Bluetongue Stadium it won’t be an easy three points for them. The market looks to have the prices for Central Coast and Newcastle pretty much spot on, I don’t think there is value in either team. The value in this match for mine is the $2.45 for Under 2.5 Goals, both of these teams struggle to score goals at the best of times, so I can’t see too many hitting the back of the net in this one.

Last 5 games:  
Central Coast        1
Newcastle        1
Draw            3

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $3.40
Newcastle        $2.25
Draw            $3.81

Market Price:  
Central Coast        $3.10 Bet365
Newcastle        $2.26 Unibet
Draw            $3.70 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $2.51
Newcastle        $1.66

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $2.22 Sportsbet
Newcastle        $1.67 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.25
Over            $1.80

Market Price:  
Under            $2.45 Sportsbet
Over            $1.58 Unibet

Value:         Central Coast Mariners/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.45.

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 10 April, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Melbourne Victory hosts Brisbane at AAMI Park on Saturday night in what should be a thrilling match. Melbourne Victory really surprised me last Saturday with their emphatic win over Wellington. They were always going to be very competitive, but I never expected that 4-1 win though. After some recent average form, this win shows that there might be still some fight left in last seasons Champions, and maybe they can show more glimpses of their form of old in the finals. Brisbane got the job done last week against Newcastle, it wasn’t too pretty, and at the hour mark they were 1-0 down, but they knew they couldn’t afford to drop any points in the fixture, so they did what they needed to and ended up winning 2-1. That win took them to the top of the table, but they are only 1 point clear, and they don’t have a great goal percentage, so they’ll need to be winning this match to secure the Premiership. This looks a pretty tight match, but Melbourne Victory should definitely have the edge. They’re back at home this week, and their fans will be out in droves. If they can win this match, it will prove that they deserve to be playing finals with the other five teams, who, to be honest, have shown a lot better form recently. I’m shocked that bookies have Brisbane as the favourite; I definitely think the odds should be flipped. I’m more than happy to take Melbourne Victory both Head to Head and in the Draw No Bet market at the current prices, they look some of the best value of the round.

Last 5 games:  
Melbourne Victory    4
Brisbane        1
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.37
Brisbane        $3.23
Draw            $3.72

Market Price:  
Melbourne Victory    $3.50 Bet365
Brisbane        $2.25 Brisbane
Draw            $3.75 Unibet, Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Melbourne Victory    $1.73
Brisbane        $2.36

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.38 Bet365
Brisbane        $1.63 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.51
Over            $1.66

Market Price:    
Under            $2.50 William Hill
Over            $1.57 Bet365

Value:         Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $3.50.
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $2.38.

Wellington Phoenix v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 10 April, 3:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Western Sydney has to travel east to take on Wellington to try and win the Premiership (depending on other results). Wellington was one of the more disappointing teams last week. They were at home to Melbourne Victory, who had been out of form recently so most expected a pretty bold showing from Wellington, but what they showed wasn’t “bold” at all. They went down 4-1, but I guess their season is already over, so they didn’t have much to play for. Western Sydney started one of the shortest priced favourites I’ve seen in an A-League match when they hosted Central Coast last Friday. Anyone who was brave enough to take the short odds never had anything to worry about though as Western Sydney came away with a very easy 4-1 win, as you’d expect. I couldn’t split these two teams, I actually rated them exactly the same price. The market has Western Sydney as an odds-on favourite, which I definitely think is wrong. At $3.50 I’m more than happy to entertain Wellington with money back if the game finishes in a draw. With nothing to play for it can be tough to back these teams, but at the price I think it’s worth the risk.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington        3
Western Sydney    2
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Wellington        $2.76
Western Sydney    $2.76
Draw            $3.54

Market Price:    
Wellington        $4.75 Bet365
Western Sydney    $1.75 Sportsbet, William Hill
Draw            $4.00 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Wellington        $2.00
Western Sydney    $2.00

Market Price:  
Wellington        $3.50 Bet365
Western Sydney    $1.35 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.48
Over            $1.68

Market Price:    
Under            $2.60 Unibet
Over            $1.53 Bet365

Value:         Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $3.50.
Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $4.75.

Sydney FC v Perth Glory

Sunday 10 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

Sunday is the final game of the regular season. It’s between Sydney who has had a disappointing year and Perth, who’s second half of the season has been incredible, and will be fighting hard over the next month in the finals. With Sydney’s season all over I’m not surprised that they lost last week, even though it’s a match they should have been competitive in. They were hosting Adelaide, which usually would be a tight fixture, but they went down 2-0 and never really looked a chance. Perth had a great win on the weekend; they were hosting Melbourne City who at the time was the league leaders, that didn’t scare them though. After a quiet first half they came to life in the second period and banged in three goals. Melbourne City fought back with two goals of their own, but it wasn’t enough and Perth took all three points. This is another close match, I have to give the slight edge to Perth though, their form has been outstanding and whether they are at home or away they are a tough side to knock over. Unfortunately I think the markets are spot on for this one and there doesn’t really look to be any value in the game. Hopefully you already got some money out of the games earlier in the weekend.

Last 5 games:    
Sydney            2
Perth            2
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $2.98
Perth            $2.60
Draw            $3.57

Market Price:  
Sydney            $3.20 Bet365, Palmerbet
Perth            $2.25 Unibet
Draw            $3.70 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $2.15
Perth            $1.87

Market Price:    
Sydney            $2.34 Sportsbet
Perth            $1.65 William Hill, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:  
Under            $2.34
Over            $1.75

Market Price:    
Under            $2.23 Unibet
Over            $1.68 William Hill

Value:         No value.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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