A-League 2017/18 – Elimination Finals


Best Value

Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $3.80

It’s tight for value in the first week of finals, but I think Brisbane are being a little undervalued, especially coming off that big away win to Perth in Round 27. Obviously they’re the underdog, but at $3.80 in the Draw No Bet market, I think they’re a decent bet.

Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar

Friday 20 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The Elimination Finals kick-off on Friday night at AAMI Park with Melbourne City hosting Brisbane. Melbourne City lost their last game of the regular season when they played Wellington at QBE Stadium. Fornaroli got them off to a great start kicking the opening goal, but they couldn’t hold out Singh who buried one goal in the first half, and another in the second half for Wellington. By the time their match came around on Saturday afternoon the result didn’t actually matter, so perhaps they may have taken the foot off the gas a little, but going into finals you would of liked to see a better performance than that against a team they’re far superior too. Brisbane on the other hand are heading into the Elimination Finals in great form after knocking off Perth over in Western Australia. While they gave away the first goal to trail 1-0 early, a 25 minute spurt of brilliance before and after the halftime break put them in the driving seat. During that period Henrique scored a brace and Kristensen added a goal to give them the 3-1 lead. Taggart got his second goal late in the game for Perth to pull it back to 3-2, but that’s where the game finished. What’s even more impressive is that Brisbane needed that win to get them into finals, so it was one hell of an effort. Home ground advantage means so much in the A-League, so this game being played at AAMI Park gives Melbourne City a definite edge, which you’d think would be enough to advance them to the Semi Finals. At the prices though I’ve got to be with Brisbane, they’re the team coming off a win, and a really solid win at that. They’ve only lost one game from their last six, and it’s do or die for every team now, so they’ll throw everything they have at this match. $5.00 seems a really good price for them, but I prefer the $3.80 in the Draw No Bet market, a little bit of insurance if it is really close, which it very well may be.


Last 10 games:

Melbourne City                 4

Brisbane                           3

Draw                                 3


Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Melbourne City               $2.00

Brisbane                          $4.08

Draw                                $3.92


Market Price:  

Melbourne City                $1.73 Ladbrokes

Brisbane                          $5.00 Bet365

Draw                                $4.00 Everywhere


Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Melbourne City                $1.49

Brisbane                          $3.04


Market Price:  

Melbourne City                $1.30 Ladbrokes

Brisbane                          $3.80 Unibet


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                                $2.27

Over                                  $1.79


Market Price:  

Under                                $2.25 Ubet

Over                                  $1.67 Sportsbet


Value:                  Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $3.80

                             Brisbane – Head to Head – $5.00



Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United

Sunday 22 April, 6:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The other Elimination Final is also at AAMI Park as Melbourne Victory earned home ground advantage too, they’re playing host to a tough Adelaide side on Sunday afternoon. You could probably class Melbourne Victory’s effort last week as a little disappointing, as a win would of given them third spot on the table, but realistically they were playing Sydney away, the toughest match on the calendar all season. And in fairness, they gave them a real fight, dominating possession 60% to 40%. Their only slip-up came very early in the match that allowed Bobo to score on them in the first ten minutes, after that it was tight to the final whistle. So even though they’re coming off a 1-0 loss, they’ll still be confident going into this week. Adelaide is another team who played top shelf football in Round 27. They were playing Western Sydney away, not an easy match by anyone’s standards, and after a back and forth 90 minutes, with multiple lead changes, they came away with a well-earned 3-2 win. Western Sydney were playing for a spot in the finals too, so they were no push-over by any means. That tough, solid win is exactly the platform that Adelaide needed going into this Elimination Final, and will give them the encouragement they need to produce the goods. I’ve got to tip the Melbourne side again here, not only do they appear to be the superior team, the home ground advantage is just too big to ignore, but I can see Adelaide playing a great game. Unfortunately there doesn’t appear to much edge as far as the markets are concerned, if Over 2.5 Goals drifts to $1.85, I’d back it, but if anything I can see it’s price shortening, so I might just be sitting back and watching this one.


Last 10 games:

Melbourne Victory             5

Adelaide                           3

Draw                                 2


Head to Head

Rated Price:

Melbourne Victory           $2.11

Adelaide                          $3.81

Draw                                $3.80


Market Price:  

Melbourne Victory           $1.95 Everywhere

Adelaide                          $4.00 Bet365

Draw                                $3.60 Everywhere


Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Melbourne Victory           $1.55

Adelaide                          $2.81


Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory          $1.44 Sportsbet

Adelaide                          $2.90 Unibet


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                               $2.48

Over                                  $1.68


Market Price: 

Under                               $2.10 Sportsbet

Over                                  $1.82 Ubet


Value:                No value



I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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