A-League 2017/18 – Round 10

A-League Football

Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $2.60

I love backing Perth at home, I think you often get a better price about them than you should because of a poor road match that they are coming off, and that’s exactly what the situation here. They lost to Central Coast, I know that’s not ideal, but they really are a different side at home compared to away. Newcastle are good, but no world beaters, at $2.60 Perth looks a great play.

 

Next Best Value

Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.00

I think Melbourne Victory are starting to hit their strides, and in a few weeks time we’ll be wondering how did they pay $2.00 against Adelaide. They’re playing some good football, and while their defense needs to “sure up” a bit, I think it’s all coming together nicely for them.

 

1st:       Perth – Head to Head – $2.60

2nd:       Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.00

3rd:       Melbourne City – head to Head – $1.80

4th:       Perth/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59

 

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United

Friday 8 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  Etihad Stadium

Round 10 kicks-off on Friday night down at Etihad Stadium with two teams that have managed to squeeze their way into the top 6, Melbourne Victory and Adelaide. Melbourne Victory are finally starting to make inroads into their campaign after a slow start. They had Wellington over in New Zealand last week, which is never an easy fixture to come up against, and after they fell 2-0 behind in the first half it was looking even tougher. Muscat must have given them some talking to during the break though because they came out firing. They scored three goals in the second half (one was an own goal) and kept Wellington scoreless, giving them a deserved 3-2 win. Adelaide were up against the Premiers Sydney last Friday and although they couldn’t produce a win, they put in a fair effort. They lost 1-0, but won the most possession and shots, so you might say they had their chances to get at least a point out of the match, but it was Sydney, so I won’t blame them too much for failing to score. Melbourne Victory are back at home this week which is a big advantage for that side, they’ll be high on confidence after their come-from-behind win, and I think they could completely blow Adelaide out of the water here. Even money is more than good enough for me to launch into them as well, at that price they’re looking like one of the better bets of the weekend.

 

Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory      3

Adelaide                      1

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Melbourne Victory      $1.71

Adelaide                      $5.45

Draw                           $4.31

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory      $2.00 Unibet, Bet365

Adelaide                      $3.75 Bet365, TopBetta

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:    Melbourne Victory      $1.31

Adelaide                      $4.19

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory      $1.50 Ladbrokes

Adelaide                      $2.70 Sportsbet, Luxbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.13

Over                            $1.89

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.10 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.75 Luxbet, Ubet

 

Value:             Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.00

                        Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.50

 

           

Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 9 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Cbus Super Stadium

It’s the start of a big triple-header of A-League football on Saturday as Brisbane and Wellington go head to head, both trying to creep their way up from down near the bottom of the ladder. Brisbane were ultra-impressive in Round 9 when they played Western Sydney away. They struggled to hold possession for long periods of time, but when they got their chances they made Western Sydney pay, converting 100% of their two shots on target. Their defense did its job too holding their opposition scoreless, earning them a 2-0 victory. Wellington hosted Melbourne Victory last Sunday and everything started off great. Half an hour into the match and Kaluderovic had already buried a couple, giving Wellington a healthy lead going into the break. Things turned pear-shaped in the second half though, and they somehow let Melbourne Victory back into the game. It looked like they were going to at least share the points until Troisi broke their hearts late in the piece. Brisbane should have no trouble with putting Wellington away, they’re the classier side from everything we’ve seen so far this season. At even money I think Brisbane are a play too, but the Over 2.5 Goals looks the better value of the fixture.

 

Last 5 games: 
Brisbane                      2

Wellington                  1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Brisbane                      $1.80

Wellington                  $4.99

Draw                           $4.08

 

Market Price: 
Brisbane                      $2.00 Unibet

Wellington                  $4.00 Bet365

Draw                           $3.75 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Brisbane                      $1.36

Wellington                  $3.76

 

Market Price:
Brisbane                      $1.48 Unibet

Wellington                  $2.80 Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $3.22

Over                            $1.45

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.30 Luxbet

Over                            $1.63 Ubet

 

Value:             Brisbane/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.63

                        Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.00

                        Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.48

 

           

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC

Saturday 9 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  ANZ Stadium

Fittingly the Sydney Derby is on at prime-time on Saturday night, and what a match it should be. Last week Western Sydney were quite disappointing, they went into their match against Brisbane as a hot favourite, but they just couldn’t convert their opportunities throughout the whole match. When you look at the stats they had 60% possession and 10 shots, you wonder how they didn’t get the three points, but not only did they not win, they didn’t come close. Brisbane ended up coming away with a relatively comfortable 2-0 win. Sydney are looking back to their best. It was a tradesman like win last week, but that’s what they’re known for. They were on the road to Adelaide, so you’d expect them to win, but no away match is a lock in the A-League. It was Bobo who broke the deadlock for them around halftime, and that solitary goal was all they needed to get the win. They’re now five points clear at the top of the table, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t clear-out by further in the coming weeks. While this won’t be a walk in the park for Sydney, the Derby’s never are, they should be getting the win here. Their odds aren’t the best though, so the Over 2.5 Goals market is where I’m looking. I know this is a game that looks to be relatively low scoring, but when was the last time you seen $1.91 for Overs in a A-League maatch, a while I’m guessing, and I can’t pass it up.

 

Last 5 games: 
Western Sydney          1

Sydney                         1

Draw                           3

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Western Sydney          $3.78

Sydney                         $2.14

Draw                           $3.73

 

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $3.65 Ubet

Sydney                         $2.05 William Hill

Draw                           $3.55 Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  
Western Sydney          $2.77

Sydney                         $1.57

 

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $2.63 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.53 Everywhere

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.43

Over                            $1.70

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $1.95 Bet365

Over                            $1.91 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Western Sydney/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.91

            

Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 9 December, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

This will be a late one for east coast fans with a 10pm AEDT start for Perth and Newcastle over in Western Australia. I feel like a broken record after every Perth away match, yes, they were disappointing, but did I expect it, kind of. They’re probably the worst road team in the league, and that’s not all that much of a surprise considering where they’re based. They traveled Bluetongue Stadium last week to take on Central Coast, and while they put up a good fight, they conceded late in the game to go down 1-0. I’m loving the Newcastle side but last week wasn’t one of their better performances. They were at home to Melbourne City, and I thought they’d win. They took the lead thirty minutes in through Nabbout, but from there it was all Melbourne City. A late goal for Muscat was the nail in the coffin for Newcastle and they lost 2-1. I’m looking forward to this game (if I stay awake), I’m very keen to see Perth bounce back at home this week, I think when things click for them they have a really strong side. The $2.60 we’re getting isn’t bad either, considering I rate Perth an even money chance, $2.60 makes them the best value of the round.

 

Last 5 games:
Perth                           2

Newcastle                   1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Perth                           $2.00

Newcastle                   $4.07

Draw                           $3.94

 

Market Price: 
Perth                           $2.60 Ubet

Newcastle                   $2.75 Sportsbet

Draw                           $3.65 Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Perth                           $1.49

Newcastle                   $3.03

 

Market Price: 
Perth                           $1.83 Luxbet

Newcastle                   $2.00 Sportsbet, Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $4.07

Over                            $1.33

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.40 Ubet

Over                            $1.59 Luxbet

 

Value:             Perth – Head to Head – $2.60

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.83

                        Perth/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59

 

           

Melbourne City v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday 10 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) –  AAMI Park

We finish things up with just the one match this Sunday, and it probably won’t be the most exciting match, unless you go for Melbourne City, then you’ll probably love it as they’ll start a short priced favourite against Central Coast. Melbourne City were very good last week, they were up against Newcastle who have been in great form this season, and are still second on the ladder. Not only that, but it was on the road too, so their 2-1 victory looks even more impressive. They fell behind early, but they recouped themselves and got the deserved win. Central Coast were hosting Perth in Round 9, and they continued their respectable form so far this season with a 1-0 win. I know it’s not the hardest of fixtures, but in previous seasons every fixture was hard for this side, so they fact that they’ve got three wins from their first nine matches this year is great for their fans. This is clear-cut; Melbourne City should just win this match. To be honest, I’m shocked that they’re $1.80, I thought they should be at the $1.55 range, they look a “better than bank interest” job.

 

Last 5 games:
Melbourne City           4

Central Coast              0

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Melbourne City           $1.55

Central Coast              $7.31

Draw                           $4.58

 

Market Price:
Melbourne City           $1.80 Everywhere

Central Coast              $4.75 Bet365

Draw                           $3.90 Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Melbourne City           $1.21

Central Coast              $5.71

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne City           $1.36 Ladbrokes

Central Coast              $3.30 Sportsbet, Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under                          $2.36

Over                            $1.73

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.30 Luxbet

Over                            $1.63 Ubet

 

Value:             Melbourne City – head to Head – $1.80

                        Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.36

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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