A-League 2017/18 – Round 12

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Wellington/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74

The best value of the weekend comes around on Saturday afternoon when Sydney head across the pond to take on Wellington. The value isn’t in Sydney though, it’s in the Over/Under market. You can currently get $1.74 for over 2.5 goals, which is an absolute steal. There’s every chance that Sydney cover that by themselves, let alone any goals that Wellington bang in.

Next Best Value

Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.91

The next best is Adelaide who are up against Central Coast. Adelaide are fourth on the table, and are playing at home, so I really don’t understand how there is $1.91 available. This should be a walk in the park for them, and there easiest $1.90 shot I’ve put my money on in a while.

1st:       Wellington/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74

2nd:       Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.91

3rd      Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.20

4th:       Brisbane/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

 

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Thursday 21 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  Suncorp Stadium

It’s the Christmas round, and it kicks-off on Thursday night with a match between Brisbane and Perth. Last week Brisbane disappointed fans when they hosted Melbourne Victory, but came away with nothing from the game. Melbourne Victory scored twice within the first 20 minutes, so from that point on it was always going to be very difficult for them. They dragged back a goal through Maccarone, but that was it, leaving them on the wrong end of a 2-1 score line. Perth weren’t the most impressive, but did what they had to do to get the three points against Wellington at home in Round 11. They only got one shot on target for the whole match, thankfully for them though it hit the back of the net, securing them the 1-0 win. This isn’t a clear-cut game, but Brisbane should be able to get over their opponents here. They’re currently a little short for my liking though so I’m going to stick with the Over 2.5 Goals option at $1.64.

 

Last 5 games: 

Brisbane                      1

Perth                           3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Brisbane                      $2.26

Perth                           $3.53

Draw                           $3.63

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $2.14 Unibet

Perth                           $3.35 Ubet

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Brisbane                      $1.64

Perth                           $2.56

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $1.57 Unibet

Perth                           $2.50 Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $3.06

Over                            $1.48

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.64 Bet365

 

Value:             Brisbane/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

 

           

Newcastle Jets v Western Sydney Wanderers

Friday 22 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  Hunter Stadium

Friday night sees another interesting match-up, this one is between Newcastle and Western Sydney. Newcastle chalked up another win last week when they faced Adelaide at Hindmarsh Stadium. They may have got a little lucky as the score was 1-1 very late in the game but then they were awarded a penalty. Petratos stepped up to the spot and made sure that it was never in doubt. They’re now clearly holding down second position on the ladder, and the only team that’s near Sydney at this stage. Western Sydney were strong last week, they were up against Central Coast on the road but they never looked like losing. They went into the break 1-0 up, then banged in another shortly into the second period to give themselves some breathing room. The match finished at that 2-0 score line. While Western Sydney have a chance, this is Newcastle’s match to lose. These are the type of matches that they need to win to prove themselves as a real contender. While they’re currently not a bet at the $2.23, if they do drift out to $2.30+ that’s the time to get on.

 

Last 5 games: 

Newcastle                   0

Western Sydney          3

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Newcastle                   $2.09

Western Sydney          $3.83

Draw                           $3.86

 

Market Price:

Newcastle                   $2.23 Unibet

Western Sydney          $3.20 Ladbrokes

Draw                           $3.65 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Newcastle                   $1.55

Western Sydney          $2.83

 

Market Price:

Newcastle                   $1.64 Unibet

Western Sydney          $2.30 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.25

Over                            $1.80

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.05 William Hill, Ubet

Over                            $1.78 Sportsbet

 

Value:             No value

 

           

Wellington Phoenix v Sydney FC

Saturday 23 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Saturday afternoon we have top of the table playing against the bottom of the table in what will most likely be a one-sided affair. Wellington travelled to Perth (the toughest road trip on the A-League calendar) in Round 11 and unsurprisingly couldn’t get anything out of the match. It was a tight game throughout though, and they did only go down 1-0, so not the worst performance by any means. How good is Sydney looking, I know they were at home, but when they went down 1-0 to Melbourne City serious questions were being asked of them, but boy did they answer those questions. By the time the final whistle was blown they had put on three goals, giving them a comfortable 3-1 win. They’re clearly the best side going around again this season, and I’d be surprised if anyone could knock them off at the pointy end of the season. The Over 2.5 Goals at $1.74 is clearly the play in this one, I could be tempted into Wellington in the Draw No Bet market at the big price, but will probably stay out.

 

Last 5 games: 

Wellington                  1

Sydney                         3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Wellington                  $4.97

Sydney                         $1.79

Draw                           $4.16

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $5.75 Bet365

Sydney                         $1.62 Sportsbet

Draw                           $4.20 William Hill, Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Wellington                  $3.77

Sydney                         $1.36

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $4.20 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.25 Ladbrokes

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $3.62

Over                            $1.38

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.35 William Hill

Over                            $1.74 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Wellington/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $5.75

                        Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.20

 

           

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 23 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  AAMI Park

It’s the annual Christmas Melbourne Derby, for anyone that doesn’t know this will be a big one. Melbourne City had to face Sydney away last week, so you don’t really need to look at the scores to see what the result was. They did put in some fight and scored the first goal of the match, but from that point on it was all Sydney. In the end, they lost 3-1, but one of the goals was scored very late in injury time, so that probably exaggerated the result a little. Melbourne Victory got another win last week when they travelled up to Queensland to face Brisbane. They came out of the box firing with Williams and Barbarouses both scoring in the first 20 minutes. Brisbane managed to drag one goal back in the second half, but Melbourne Victory clearly had their measure throughout. This will be a cracker of a match, I have less than $0.50 between these two sides, and the market is even tighter! Melbourne City is close to a bet, but I want $2.75 to entice me in. As it stands I’ll just be watching on without a financial interest in the match.

 

Last 5 games:

Melbourne City           2

Melbourne Victory      3

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Melbourne City           $2.50

Melbourne Victory      $2.99

Draw                           $3.76

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne City           $2.63 Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $2.60 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.60 Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Melbourne City           $1.84

Melbourne Victory      $2.19

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City           $1.95 Ladbrokes

Melbourne Victory      $1.97 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.38

Over                            $1.73

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.07 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

           

Adelaide United v Central Coast Mariners

Tuesday 26 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Last game of the round and we skip Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to Boxing Day, where Adelaide and Central Coast go head to head at Hindmarsh Stadium. Adelaide had the tough task of facing Newcastle away last Saturday, and although they put in a solid effort, they just got picked at the post. It was 0-0 through the first half, but then shortly into the second they fell a goal behind. Not long after the levelled up through Blackwood and things were looking good again. The scores were still tied with only minutes remaining, but then an error down back cost them a penalty. Petratos had no trouble burying the spot kick for Newcastle, leaving Adelaide empty handed for a solid games performance. Central Coast hosted Western Sydney last round and just never really got into the match. About half an hour in Western Sydney broke through with the first goal of the match, there after you just couldn’t see Central Coast ever breaking down their defense. They only managed 36% of the possession, which is one of the lowest I’ve seen, so unfortunately after a solid enough start to the season, things might be on the downhill again for Central Coast. Adelaide should just be winning this, they’re fourth on the ladder, and you don’t get there by luck. Add in the home ground advantage, and I don’t know how they lose. $1.91 is more than a reasonable price too, I expect them to start a lot shorter at kick-off.

 

Last 5 games:

Adelaide                      3

Central Coast              2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.71

Central Coast              $5.52

Draw                           $4.28

 

Market Price:

Adelaide                      $1.91 Sportsbet

Central Coast              $4.00 William Hill

Draw                           $3.79 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.31

Central Coast              $4.23

 

Market Price:

Adelaide                      $1.44 Bet365

Central Coast              $2.95 Sportsbet, Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.27

Over                            $1.79

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.10 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.75 Ubet

 

Value:             Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.91

                        Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.44

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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