A-League 2017/18 – Round 13

Best Value

Western Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90

Lately I much prefer the Over/Under markets to the Head to Head markets, so my two best value bets of the week are those bet types. The best of the round comes up on New Years Day in what will probably be a cracking match between Western Sydney and Melbourne City. $1.90 for Over 2.5 Goals is pretty rare in the A-League, and I know Western Sydney have one of the lowest scoring rates in the competition, but Overs should still be the clear favourite.

 

Next Best Value

Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

Another game, another Overs bet, and this time it’s in the Melbourne Victory/Newcastle fixture. You have to go back nine weeks to the last time a Newcastle game didn’t go over 2.5 goals, that pretty much says it all. Get on, $1.82 is a luxury.

 

1st:        Western Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90

2nd:       Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

3rd:        Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.75

4th       Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.70

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets

Friday 29 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Round 13 kicks off with a big match between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle. Melbourne Victory had the big Melbourne Derby last week and to say that they got lucky is an understatement. After a hard fought, back and forth battle for the entire game the result looked certain to end in 0-0. But in the dying seconds of injury time they won a penalty (deserved, but wasn’t a goal scoring opportunity). Milligan stepped up to the spot and converted, as you’d expect, giving them the most unlikely of wins. Newcastle, how good are these guys going, they’re now seven points clear of third on the table. Their latest three points came at the hand of Western Sydney. On paper you’d think this would be a decent sort of match, but Newcastle had other ideas. From the get go they poured on the pressure, by the time the final whistle was blown they had fired in 21 shots, 4 of which hit the back of the net, giving them the easy 4-0 win. At home you’ve got to give the nod to Melbourne Victory, but by no means can you write off Newcastle, they’ve been deadly lately. The head to head prices are just not there for me, so I’m heading to the Over/Under market. I think Overs is an incredible price here and that’s what I’ll be playing.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne Victory      3

Newcastle                       1

Draw                                 1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Melbourne Victory      $2.11

Newcastle                      $3.72

Draw                                $3.89

 

Market Price:

Melbourne Victory      $2.10 Ubet

Newcastle                       $3.55 Unibet

Draw                                $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.57

Newcastle                      $2.77

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.52 Ubet

Newcastle                       $2.65 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $3.29

Over                                 $1.44

 

Market Price:  

Under                               $2.11 Sportsbet

Over                                  $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:                Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

             

Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 30 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Saturday afternoon we head across to Hindmarsh Stadium for Adelaide and Brisbane. This is a bit of a quick backup for Adelaide as they only played on Tuesday, it shouldn’t be too much of a struggle though as that was at home too, so no travel for them. It was against Central Coast, and as you’d expect they got the result they were looking for. It wasn’t as easy as you might think, but after scoring an early goal they managed to hold that 1-0 score line for the rest of the match. Even though they don’t seem to have been too impressive thus far, they’ve worked their way up to fourth on the table, which is incredible compared to last year’s efforts. Brisbane was utterly disappointing when at home to Perth in Round 12. They went into the match as a heavy favourite, and after leading at halftime that looked justified. A couple goals in quick succession to Perth put an end to that though, leaving Brisbane with a 2-1 loss. Adelaide are the clear pick here, I think they’re a flip of the coin chance. Market has them pretty similar ($2.05) though; I’d need $2.20 before I jump in so at this stage it’s a sit out for me.

 

Last 5 games:  

Adelaide                          3

Brisbane                          1

Draw                                 1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Adelaide                          $1.99

Brisbane                          $4.17

Draw                                $3.88

 

Market Price:

Adelaide                          $2.05 William Hill

Brisbane                          $3.75 Ubet

Draw                                $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Adelaide                          $1.48

Brisbane                          $3.09

 

Market Price:  

Adelaide                          $1.50 Ladbrokes

Brisbane                          $2.70 Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                               $2.43

Over                                  $1.70

 

Market Price: 

Under                               $2.08 Sportsbet

Over                                  $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:                No value

             

Sydney FC v Perth Glory

Saturday 30 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

Saturday night will surely we a one-sided affair when Sydney host Perth. Sydney, what more can I say, they are so damn good. Last week they were playing over in New Zealand against Wellington, which is not the easiest of road trips. Do you think that stopped them for a second though, nope. Once again they piled on the goals, running away with a 4-1 victory, headlined by Bobo who bagged a hat trick. They’re now five points clear at the top of the table, and back-to-back premierships is looking like a certainty. Perth was actually pretty impressive last week, they were on the road to Brisbane, and we all know how bad they are away. But even after falling behind in the first half they fought back with a pair of goals in the last 15 minutes to take the honours. Sydney probably just wins, they’re going to slip up one day, but who knows when that will be. At $1.47 Sydney is too short for me, I’d suggest either staying out or maybe a tiny bet on Perth in the Draw No Bet market at around $6.40.

 

Last 5 games: 

Sydney                              5

Perth                                 0

Draw                                 0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Sydney                              $1.53

Perth                                 $7.06

Draw                                $4.88

 

Market Price:

Sydney                             $1.47 Ubet

Perth                                 $8.00 Bet365

Draw                                $5.00 TopBetta, Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Sydney                             $1.22

Perth                                 $5.62

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                             $1.15 Ladbrokes

Perth                                 $6.40 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $2.72

Over                                  $1.58

 

Market Price:  

Under                               $2.40 Ubet

Over                                  $1.63 Sportsbet

 

Value:                Perth – Draw No Bet – $6.40

                             Perth – Head to Head – $8.00

              

Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix

Sunday 31 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

I think most people will spend their New Years Eve doing things other than watching this football match, but hopefully we can make some money out of it anyway. Central Coast were away to Adelaide last week, and while competitive, after going down 1-0 early in the piece, they could never quite muster that equalizing goal, leaving the final score at 1-0. To be honest that’s pretty much the result you’d expect from that fixture, a one-goal loss, so you can’t really take too much away from them. Wellington had the dreaded task of Sydney last week, and as you can imagine it wasn’t pretty for them. Sydney scored four goals on them, while they could only find the net once. That result wouldn’t of surprised anyone I’m sure. A tough game to split the teams, but I think Central Coast have a little advantage over Wellington. At $3.70 Wellington actually looks a good shout, as I mentioned above this is an open match, so an upset wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. Overs at $1.70 looks a solid play too.

 

Last 5 games: 

Central Coast                 2

Wellington                     3

Draw                                 0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Central Coast                 $2.43

Wellington                     $3.17

Draw                                $3.67

 

Market Price:  

Central Coast                 $2.00 Everywhere

Wellington                     $3.70 Ubet

Draw                                $3.75 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Central Coast                 $1.77

Wellington                     $2.31

 

Market Price:  

Central Coast                 $1.50 Ladbrokes

Wellington                     $2.70 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $2.92

Over                                  $1.52

 

Market Price:

Under                               $2.18 Sportsbet

Over                                  $1.70 Bet365, Ubet

 

Value:                Wellington – Head to Head – $3.70

                             Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.70

                             Central Coast/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70

             

Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne City

Monday 1 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium

The last game of the round comes on the first day of 2018, and it’s a cracker of a game to kick off the New Year, Western Sydney and Melbourne City at ANZ Stadium. Western Sydney got absolutely trounced last week against Newcastle. I thought they’d be up against it, but the final score of 4-0 looks to be well below their real ability. I know Newcastle is on the upward spiral but just the week before Western Sydney won 2-0 on the road. I think you’ve got to forgive them one last time, but then you see that they’ve still only won two games this season you start to worry about them. Melbourne City was a little hard done by last week, it was the big Derby and after a cracker ninety minutes the teams were going to share the spoils. But a silly foul from Bouzanis on the edge of the box, from a non-goal threating position, cost them the game. The penalty was awarded, and converted, giving Melbourne Victory the 1-0 win. I think Western Sydney could bounce back, but this is the last time I trust them against a top side. I’m happy with the $2.75 available, but I think the $1.90 for Over 2.5 goals is the real play in the match; I have that as the best value of the whole round.

 

Last 5 games: 

Western Sydney           1

Melbourne City            2

Draw                                 2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Western Sydney           $2.37

Melbourne City            $3.27

Draw                                $3.67

 

Market Price: 

Western Sydney           $2.75 Ubet

Melbourne City            $2.60 Everywhere

Draw                                $3.40 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Western Sydney           $1.73

Melbourne City            $2.38

 

Market Price: 

Western Sydney           $1.98 Ubet

Melbourne City            $1.86 Sportsbet, Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $3.04

Over                                  $1.49

 

Market Price:  

Under                               $2.00 William Hill

Over                                  $1.90 Ubet

 

Value:                Western Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90

                             Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.75

                             Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.98

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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