A-League 2017/18 – Round 14

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $2.37

This is the only Head to Head bet I like all week, and I really like it! I think because of Perth’s thumping by Sydney last week bookies have gone a bit crazy with their price. I rated Perth $1.62 and a massive $2.37 is available. Off the top of my head this is one of the better-looking bets over the past couple months.

Next Best Value

Melbourne City/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.40

Going the “Unders” in the Melbourne City/Wellington game. The average goals by both teams is quite low, and although I had “Overs” as a slight favourite, there should be nowhere near this much of a difference in their prices.

 

1st:        Perth – Head to Head – $2.37

2nd:       Melbourne City/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.40

3rd:        Melbourne Victory/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.25

4th:        Sydney/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70

 

Sydney FC v Newcastle jets

Wednesday 3 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

We get our first match of Round 14 very early in the week on Wednesday, and boy oh boy should it be a cracker, it’s between Sydney and Newcastle, the two clearly best sides so far this season. Sydney did a demolition job on Perth at home last week. They were only up 1-0 at halftime, but by the time the ref blew the final whistle the score line was 6-0, namely due to Bobo who scored a second half hat-trick. Newcastle lost their first game in a while when they travelled down south to take on Melbourne Victory last week. They were very competitive but could only manage to muster a 2-1 loss. While Melbourne Victory hasn’t been on song this season, we know they’ve got the team to pull off big wins, so I’m happy to forgive Newcastle for that one. Have no doubt that Sydney should really win this game, but I’d love to see Newcastle take it right up to them, although being played at Sydney Football Stadium probably gives the home side too big of an advantage. At $1.53 Sydney is too short for me, Over 2.5 Goals should easily lob and at $1.70 it’s better value.

 

Last 5 games:  

Sydney                             5

Newcastle                       0

Draw                                 0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Sydney                             $1.56

Newcastle                      $7.04

Draw                                $4.61

 

Market Price:  

Sydney                             $1.53 Bet365

Newcastle                       $6.20 Crownbet

Draw                                $4.40 Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Sydney                             $1.22

Newcastle                       $5.52

 

Market Price:  

Sydney                             $1.20 Ladbrokes

Newcastle                       $4.80 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                               $2.86

Over                                  $1.54

 

Market Price: 

Under                               $2.26 Sportsbet

Over                                  $1.70 Ubet

 

Value:                Sydney/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70

 

 

Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers

Friday 5 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

This Friday we’ve got a double header, can’t remember the last time that happened. It’s between Brisbane and Western Sydney, two teams that have both severely underperformed this season and are still trying to break into the Top 6. In Round 13 Brisbane got a much-needed win when on the road to Adelaide. They started the game well and got 2-0 ahead at the break, but after a red card was shown they were reduced to 10 players late in the half. They conceded one goal in the second half, but clung onto their 2-1 lead till the end of the match. Western Sydney also got a win last week, and there’s was equally as impressive. Although they were at home it was against a superior side in Melbourne City. After going behind early, they buried a couple within minutes of each other to take the lead. This all happened in the first half, but that was to be the end of the scoring, giving them a 2-1 victory. Tough game, but advantage must be given to the home side, Brisbane. No value at all in this one, more than happy to sit out.

 

Last 5 games:  

Brisbane                          2

Western Sydney              0

Draw                                 3

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Brisbane                          $2.41

Western Sydney              $3.26

Draw                                $3.59

 

Market Price:  

Brisbane                          $2.55 Unibet

Western Sydney           $2.80 William Hill, Ladbrokes

Draw                                $3.55 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Brisbane                          $1.74

Western Sydney              $2.35

 

Market Price:  

Brisbane                          $1.88 Unibet

Western Sydney             $1.95 Everywhere

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                               $2.21

Over                                  $1.83

 

Market Price:  

Under                                $2.08 Sportsbet

Over                                  $1.75 Ubet

 

Value:                No value

 

 

Perth Glory v Adelaide United

Friday 5 January, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

A late game on Friday night for the eastern states with Perth and Adelaide getting underway at 10:00pm at NIB Stadium. Perth were on the receiving end of one of the biggest beltings you’ll see in the A-League last week. They were playing Sydney away, so a loss was inevitable, but they got hammered. They finally existed the pitch losing 6-0. They were only down 1-0 at the break, but the second half from Sydney really buried them. Hopefully they can put that behind them and bounce back this week. Adelaide hosted Brisbane, and even after their opposition went a man down, they still couldn’t even manage a draw. The final score was 2-1, and another disappointing loss for Adelaide. Perth should just get the job done here, as long as they’ve got last week’s match out of their head, I don’t see how they lose. Very keen on Perth here, don’t think I’ve seen a better $2.30 chance in recently.

 

Last 5 games:  

Perth                                 3

Adelaide                           1

Draw                                 1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Perth                                 $1.62

Adelaide                           $6.05

Draw                                 $4.56

 

Market Price:  

Perth                                 $2.37 Sportsbet

Adelaide                           $2.95 Unibet

Draw                                $3.60 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

\Perth                                 $1.27

Adelaide                            $4.72

 

Market Price: 

Perth                                 $1.73 Ladbrokes

Adelaide                           $2.16 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                                $2.45

Over                                  $1.69

 

Market Price:  

Under                               $2.08 Sportsbet

Over                                  $1.80 Bet365

 

Value:                  Perth – Head to Head – $2.37

                             Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.73

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 6 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – GMHBA Stadium (Geelong)

Saturday, we have Melbourne Victory playing their annual home game at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong, their opponents this time around is Central Coast. With last week’s win against Newcastle, Melbourne Victory have crept up to third positon on the table, which shocks me because it doesn’t feel like they’ve been playing very well thus far. Newcastle was a big scalp for them and now they’ve knocked them over they might be able to go on a decent run of wins over this summer period. As you well know Newcastle is a formidable opponent, and although Melbourne Victory only won 2-1, they always looked like they would get all three points throughout. Central Coast hosted Wellington last week and after 90 long minutes the final score was 0-0. They dominated possession, but as per usual they couldn’t do much with it in that final third. Obviously, this looks a lock for Melbourne Victory, the only possible question mark might be the game being played in Geelong rather than Melbourne. Under 2.5 Goals looks an ok play here, I had the Over/Under flip of the coin odds, so the $2.25 for “Unders” appears to be value.

 

Last 5 games:  

Melbourne Victory            4

Central Coast                   0

Draw                                 1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Melbourne Victory           $1.56

Central Coast                  $7.01

Draw                                $4.60

 

Market Price:

Melbourne Victory            $1.66 William Hill

Central Coast                  $5.25 Bet365, Ubet

Draw                                $4.33 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Melbourne Victory      $1.22

Central Coast                 $5.49

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory          $1.26 Unibet

Central Coast                 $4.10 Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                               $2.01

Over                                  $1.99

 

Market Price:  

Under                               $2.25 William Hill

Over                                  $1.70 Ubet

 

Value:                Melbourne Victory/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.25

 

 

Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 6 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  AAMI Park

Last game of the round is at AAMI Park on Saturday night between Melbourne City and Wellington. Melbourne City struggled last week when they went up against Western Sydney. They took the lead early in the game, but shortly after that Western Sydney took over. They ended up going down 2-1, which dropped them down to fourth on the ladder. Wellington travelled to Central Coast for what ended up being quite an uneventful match. They did struggle throughout, only holding the ball for 35% of the match, so the fact that they came away with a 0-0 draw was not that bad a result for them in hindsight. Melbourne City will win this match with little trouble, unfortunately the market price is bang on with my rated price, leaving us very little wriggle room. Happier to go with the $2.40 for the Under 2.5 Goals and hope for another low scoring game from Wellington.

 

Last 5 games:  

Melbourne City                 5

Wellington                        0

Draw                                 0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Melbourne City               $1.63

Wellington                       $6.02

Draw                                $4.52

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City               $1.61 William Hill

Wellington                      $5.50 Sportsbet

Draw                                $4.33 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Melbourne City            $1.27

Wellington                     $4.69

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City             $1.25 Ladbrokes, Bet365

Wellington                     $4.30 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $2.04

Over                                  $1.96

 

Market Price: 

Under                               $2.40 Ubet

Over                                  $1.64 Sportsbet

 

Value:                Melbourne City/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.40

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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