A-League 2017/18 – Round 16

A-League Football

Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $6.50

The biggest overs of the week has to be Perth doesn’t it? Melbourne Victory was very ordinary on Wednesday, and now they’re backing up a few days later, after a trip to New Zealand, I don’t know how anyone could back them. It would probably make more sense to take Perth in the Draw No Bet market, but at $6.50 I can’t resist a tiny bet on them Head to Head.

Next Best Value

Wellington/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67

I think we’re getting the $1.67 for Overs in this match because Western Sydney is playing, but Wellington home games are prone to huge goal tallies. Wellington scored a couple of goals themselves during the week at home so they’ve got their eye in too. Overs should sail through nice and easy on this one.

 

1st:       Perth – Head to Head – $6.50

2nd      Wellington/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67

3rd:       Central Coast/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

4th:       Wellington – Head to Head – $2.80

 

Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar

Friday 12 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Seems like it’s non-stop A-League with a third round of matches within about 10 days. First cab off the rank is Newcastle and Brisbane on Friday night at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle hosted Central Coast on Tuesday and as expected came away with a painless win. The final score was 2-0, but you feel they could of put more away if they really wanted to. Wow Brisbane were average on Monday. They were hosting Sydney, so they were always going to be up against it, but they didn’t put up any fight. For the whole game they only managed one shot on target and when your opposition gets seven the result is never going to go your way. By the time the match was done and dusted Sydney had won 3-0, leaving Brisbane only one spot off the bottom of the table. Newcastle is by far the superior team, plus the fact that they’ve got the advantage of back to back home games means this should be a walk in the park for them. At this stage I can’t back either side, but if Newcastle gets out to $1.80, which they aren’t too far off, they’ll be a get on.

 

Last 5 games: 

Newcastle                   3

Brisbane                      2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.64

Brisbane                      $5.99

Draw                           $4.48

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.75 Everywhere

Brisbane                      $4.75 Bet365

Draw                           $4.00 Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.27

Brisbane                      $4.65

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.36 Ladbrokes

Brisbane                      $3.55 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.84

Over                            $1.54

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.64 Bet365

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Wellington Phoenix v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 13 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Saturday afternoon sees an interesting affair between Wellington and Western Sydney, a match that I think should be a close one. Wellington impressed me last week when they hosted Melbourne Victory, going into the match as the underdog. They started the match off slow and actually went into the break a goal down, but they fired up in the second half. Firstly scoring an equaliser through the reliable Krishna. Later in the game their pressure caused Melbourne Victory to concede an own goal, giving Wellington all three points. It was a ho-hum performance from Western Sydney on Wednesday. They hosted Adelaide, so not a walkover, but I did expect that they would win. At the break it was 0-0 and anyone’s game. After Clisby scored for them I thought they’d lock the game down and get the victory, but late in the match Adelaide found an equaliser, leaving the sides to share the points. After last weeks efforts Wellington should be the fav in this fixture, although as I mentioned above it should be close. The market is having trouble splitting these two, so that means that Wellington is value to my eye. The best value of the match looks to be the Overs though, $1.67 is too high.

 

Last 5 games: 

Wellington                  4

Western Sydney          0

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Wellington                  $2.39

Western Sydney          $3.27

Draw                           $3.62

 

Market Price:

Wellington                  $2.80 Ladbrokes

Western Sydney          $2.60 Unibet

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Wellington                  $1.73

Western Sydney          $2.37

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $1.95 Ladbrokes

Western Sydney          $1.92 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $4.13

Over                            $1.32

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.67 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Wellington/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $2.80

                        Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.95

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory

Saturday 13 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

On Saturday night Melbourne Victory will try and rally themselves after a couple of poor performances when they come up against Perth at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory had to travel to New Zealand on Wednesday and disappointed once again. They took a 1-0 lead in the first half, but couldn’t play the full 90 minutes out, and ended up losing 2-1. For the majority of this season they’ve been below par you’d have to say. To put things into perspective, Sydney, who they played in the Grand Final last season, has nearly twice the amount of points that Melbourne Victory has so far. Perth didn’t do much either when they hosted Melbourne City last week. It’s hard to make too many excuses for them; they were simply outplayed throughout the majority of the match. While they did get some chances, they could never convert them. Obviously Melbourne Victory should be winning this on paper, but the three-day back up from playing in New Zealand is a huge concern for me. For that reason I have to have a nibble at Perth at the $6.50, it just seems a crazy price.

 

Last 5 games:

Melbourne Victory      2

Perth                           2

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Melbourne Victory      $1.97

Perth                           $4.14

Draw                           $3.98

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.61 William Hill

Perth                           $6.50 Bet365

Draw                           $4.50 Sportsbet, Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Melbourne Victory      $1.48

Perth                           $3.10

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.20 Ladbrokes

Perth                           $4.60 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.98

Over                            $1.50

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.60 Bet365

Over                            $1.58 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Perth – Head to Head – $6.50

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $4.60

 

 

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City

Sunday 14 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Sunday arvo at Bluetongue Stadium sees Central Coast and Melbourne City fighting it out in a match were I’m giving the underdog a bit of a sniff. On Tuesday Central Coast played Newcastle at Hunter Stadium. Unsurprisingly they went down, the final score being 2-0. I don’t think you can take too much out of their performance though, Newcastle is a clear class above, and at home, they were never going to be touched. Their previous match was a draw against Melbourne Victory on the road, which is good enough to be competitive here. Melbourne City looked strong in their 2-0 win away to Perth. It’s never an easy road trip that one, but went across and did it with ease. They now look to be the clear third best team so far this season, and I’m sure they’ll now be hunting for Newcastle. Back to back away matches is never easy, but Melbourne City has the class to get all three points again this week. The real value of the match looks to be in the Over/Under market though. I’m pretty confident on the Overs, and at $1.75 I think you’re getting way over the true odds.

 

Last 5 games: 

Central Coast              0

Melbourne City           4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Central Coast              $3.47

Melbourne City           $2.21

Draw                           $3.86

 

Market Price:

Central Coast              $3.80 Unibet, Ubet

Melbourne City           $2.00 William Hill

Draw                           $3.65 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Central Coast              $2.57

Melbourne City           $1.64

 

Market Price: 

Central Coast              $2.85 Unibet

Melbourne City           $1.46 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $3.22

Over                            $1.45

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.20 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.75 Ubet

 

Value:             Central Coast/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

                        Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.85

                        Central Coast – Head to Head – $3.80

 

 

Adelaide United v Sydney FC

Sunday 14 January, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Last game of Round 16 is Adelaide vs Sydney, a match that might not be as straightforward as it first seems. On Wednesday Adelaide travelled to Western Sydney, and while they definitely had a chance going into the match, they were the clear underdog. After going behind in the second half I thought it was all over for them, but to their credit they fought back and Stamatelopoulos scored, tying things up for them. A draw from that fixture isn’t too bad in my books. Sydney, I get sick of writing the same things every week, but they are just consistently dominate. In Round 15 they travelled to Brisbane and easily disposed of them 3-0. Sydney probably should be winning this without too much of a sweat, but big back to back road trips is of some concern. I think everyone keeps forgetting how good Adelaide have been playing this season; they’re fourth on the table and they deserve it. I think they could be worth a little throw at the stumps here, will stick to the Draw No Bet market though to play it safe.

 

Last 5 games:

Adelaide                      0

Sydney                         4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Adelaide                      $4.51

Sydney                         $1.93

Draw                           $3.86

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $4.80 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.83 Sportsbet

Draw                           $3.85 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Adelaide                      $3.34

Sydney                         $1.43

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $3.65 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.36 Ladbrokes

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.05

Over                            $1.95

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.10 William Hill

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $3.65

 

 

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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