A-League 2017/18 – Round 17

A-League Football

Best Value

Western Sydney – Head to Head – $3.29

Western Sydney is a huge price! When I first comparing the market, I had to double check them, I thought that bookies got the market back to front, but apparently, they think Melbourne Victory should be a clear favourite. I couldn’t possibly have them as favourite myself and am very keen Western Sydney.

 

Next Best Value

Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.62

I think the first game of the round will be a competitive one as I found it tough to split the two sides. I ended up leaning towards Brisbane until I seen the prices, the fact that you can get $2.62 for Perth in the Draw No Bet market makes no sense and is too good to be true for me.

 

1st:       Western Sydney – Head to Head – $3.29

2nd      Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.62

3rd:       Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.04

4th:       Brisbane/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.66

 

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Thursday 18 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Round 17 gets underway on Thursday night with Brisbane and Perth going at it in what should be a tight match. Last week Brisbane had Newcastle away, obviously going into the match as a pretty big underdog. While they remained competitive for the 90 minutes, Newcastle got the better of them on the scoreboard, winning 1-0. Brisbane did dominate possession, but just struggled to get the ball into any real dangerous spots. Perth put up a hell of a fight when they travelled east to take on Melbourne Victory. Through Neville they managed to take the lead minutes into the game. But for a long portion of the game they were 2-1 down, but when Castro scored late it looked likely that they would share the points with Melbourne Victory. Unfortunately for them though they allowed an injury time goal, leaving them empty handed. As mentioned above this is a tough one, but the slight edge goes to Brisbane. Shocked about the prices of these sides, I’m now keen on Perth at the current quote. The $2.62 for them in the Draw No Bet market looks the safest play to me.

 

Last 5 games:

Brisbane                      1

Perth                           3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Brisbane                      $2.59

Perth                           $2.97

Draw                           $3.60

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $2.05 William Hill, Ubet

Perth                           $3.75 Bet365

Draw                           $3.70 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Brisbane                      $1.87

Perth                           $2.14

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $1.50 Everywhere

Perth                           $2.62 Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $3.06

Over                            $1.48

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.40 Ubet

Over                            $1.66 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Perth – Head to Head – $3.75

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.62

                        Brisbane/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.66

 

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne Victory

Friday 19 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium

Another match that isn’t clear cut is this Friday’s fixture between Western Sydney and Melbourne Victory. Western Sydney is coming off a draw to Wellington over in New Zealand last Saturday. Wellington are a pretty average side, and bottom of the table, but a New Zealand road trip is never easy, so I’m not completely chastising Western Sydney. They haven’t lost a game for nearly a month now, so they’re starting to have some more consistent form, they just need to convert some of these draws into wins. Melbourne Victory somehow came away with the win Saturday night when they hosted Perth. After falling behind early they fought back to take the lead. Some average defense caused them to give up a goal late in the game leveling things up for Perth. Barbarouses came through for them though with an injury time goal, it wasn’t the way you want to win a match, but they’ll take it. Western Sydney is the clear favourite here for me, I think if they continue the current form trajectory they’ll be winning. The market is completely opposite to me here for some reason, which means I think Western Sydney is value in all markets.

 

Last 5 games: 

Western Sydney          0

Melbourne Victory      3

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Western Sydney          $2.11

Melbourne Victory      $3.80

Draw                           $3.82

 

Market Price:  Western Sydney          $3.29 Bet365

Melbourne Victory      $2.25 William Hill

Draw                           $3.55 Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Western Sydney          $1.55

Melbourne Victory      $2.81

 

Market Price: 

Western Sydney          $2.30 Ubet, Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $1.66 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.22

Over                            $1.82

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.05 Ubet

Over                            $1.81 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Western Sydney – Head to Head – $3.29

                        Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $2.30

 

 

Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 20 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

We’ve got an odds-on double header on Saturday night, the first is Newcastle who is hosting Wellington in what should really be a walk in the park for the home side. Last week Newcastle continued their winning ways with a 1-0 victory over Brisbane. They were obviously expected to win, and even though they struggled to control the ball for large portions of the game, they made good use of the ball when they had it. They’re now looking like a serious competitor to Sydney and are only two games behind them. Wellington hosted Western Sydney in Round 16 and after a bit of back and forth had to settle for a 1-1 draw. They don’t look that bad when playing, but they’re still on the bottom of the table, but not that far off a finals spot really (only 8 points). Newcastle obviously win this; only bad luck gets them beat. Market is close to bang on, so I’ll be sitting this one out.

 

Last 5 games: 

Newcastle                   2

Wellington                  2

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.70

Wellington                  $5.49

Draw                           $4.34

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.67 Ubet

Wellington                  $5.00 Everywhere

Draw                           $4.20 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:    Newcastle                   $1.31

Wellington                  $4.22

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.30 Ladbrokes

Wellington                  $3.85 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.37

Over                            $1.72

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.40 Ubet

Over                            $1.61 Sportsbet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 20 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

The second of the short-priced favourites on Saturday is Sydney, who will start very short when they line-up against Central Coast. Sydney dominated their match against Adelaide last week, but for all their trying they could never find the back of the net. They had 61% of possession and fired off 12 shots, but everything just wasn’t clicking for them. In the end, it was a 0-0 result, and even though they were on the road they’d be very disappointed they couldn’t find a goal for the entire 90 minutes. Central Coast were decent last week against Melbourne City. They led on two separate points throughout the match, but a late goal for Melbourne City tied things up at 2-2, forcing the teams to share the points. Even though Central Coast looked the winner, a draw from that fixture is still reasonable for them. Don’t have to be a genius to know that Sydney will be incredibly tough to beat here, the only possible chink is their performance last week. because I’m a masochist I think Central Coast in the Draw No Bet is worth a minuscule bet, $8.00 just seems too big to me. The safer option looks to be the Under 2.5 Goals at $2.55.

 

Last 5 games: 

Sydney                         3

Central Coast              1

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Sydney                         $1.46

Central Coast              $8.61

Draw                           $5.03

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.35 William Hill

Central Coast              $9.00 Unibet, TopBetta

Draw                           $5.50 Ladbrokes

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Sydney                         $1.17

Central Coast              $6.89

 

Market Price:

Sydney                         $1.11 Ladbrokes, Sportsbet

Central Coast              $8.00 Unibet, Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.28

Over                            $1.78

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.55 Ubet

Over                            $1.57 Bet365

 

Value:             Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $8.00

                        Sydney/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.55

 

 

Melbourne City v Adelaide United

Sunday 21 January, 7:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The last game of Round 17 is on Sunday afternoon at AAMI Park between Melbourne City and Adelaide. Melbourne City underperformed to my eyes when they drew with Central Coast last week. The game was on the road, but a team who is third on the ladder should be beating teams like that, home or away. To be honest, they were probably a little lucky to get a draw out of the match too as Budzinski managed to sneak a late goal for them to tie things up at 2-2. If they want to be able to keep up with Sydney and Newcastle at the top of the table they won’t be able to drop many more points in games like that. Adelaide somehow held Sydney to a 0-0 draw last Sunday. While they never looked threatening themselves, so a win was very unlikely, keeping Sydney scoreless is still some effort. If their defense can continue to play like that for the rest of the season they’ll easily hold that finals place that the currently sit in, and maybe jump up a spot or two. Melbourne City should have too much fire power for Adelaide here, especially after last week’s draw they’ll be out for blood. I’m shocked that better than even money is on offer for Melbourne City, I’ll eat that up any day of the week. Also, keen on the “Unders” at $2.12.

 

Last 5 games:

Melbourne City           3

Adelaide                      2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Melbourne City           $1.71

Adelaide                      $5.59

Draw                           $4.26

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne City           $2.04 Bet365

Adelaide                      $3.80 William Hill

Draw                           $3.60 Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Melbourne City           $1.31

Adelaide                      $4.28

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City           $1.46 Unibet

Adelaide                      $2.75 Sportsbet, Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $1.91

Over                            $2.10

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.12 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.90 William Hill

 

Value:             Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.04

                        Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.46

                        Melbourne City/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.12

 

 

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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