A-League 2017/18 – Round 18

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

Very keen on the “Overs” in the New Zealand game. If you look at both teams’ games in Round 17 you’ll see that both games had a total of 5 goals each scored in them, if this week’s game is anything like those the $1.75 is money for jam.

Next Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $1.97

Perth should be tough to beat back at home this week against an out of form Western Sydney. Even though they lost last week, Perth were admiral in defeat, and a similar performance will likely get them the chocolates here.

1st:       Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

2nd:       Perth – Head to Head – $1.97

3rd:       Wellington – Head to Head – $2.75

4th      Central Coast/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

 

Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets

Thursday 25 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

This will be the second biggest game of the round to the Big Blue on Australia Day, but as far as current form is concerned this is the highlight of Round 18. We’ve got Newcastle heading down south to take on Melbourne City who is off the quick backup after playing on Sunday. In that match Melbourne City hosted Adelaide, a match that they were always expected to win. They didn’t just win though, they gave Adelaide an absolute drubbing, beating them 5-0. That win will have them on a high, and now that they’re within two games on Newcastle on the table, they’ll be out for blood. Newcastle was probably the shock performance of the round last week when they lost to Wellington at home. They never looked like winning either, with the final score being 3-2, but they’re last goal was a late consolidation goal to make the score look not quite as bad as it really was. They’ve been so consistent lately, so this was a real shock, they’ll be wanting to make sure they bounce straight back to their best this week. At home Melbourne City holds all the aces, and should be able to get the win over Newcastle, putting pressure on them for second on the table. $2.10 will do me as well for Melbourne City, I expected to see odds-on. Nothing wrong with the Over 2.5 Goals here either with both teams coming off five goal games.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne City           3

Newcastle                   2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Melbourne City           $1.88

Newcastle                   $4.51

Draw                           $4.08

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City           $2.10 Ladbrokes, Bet365

Newcastle                   $3.45 Ubet

Draw                           $3.60 William Hill, Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Melbourne City           $1.42

Newcastle                   $3.40

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne City           $1.52 Everywhere

Newcastle                   $2.55 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.55

Over                            $1.64

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.08 Unibet

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.10

                        Melbourne City/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

Friday 26 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  AAMI Park

We have one of the biggest games of the year as Melbourne Victory and Sydney clash in the annual Big Blue on Australia Day. Last week Melbourne Victory had to take on Western Sydney at ANZ Stadium, and even though they have started to pick up their form, I doubted them. Boy, was I wrong, a solid 90-minute effort gave them all three points in a relative breeze. 3-0 was the final goal difference, and I think they deserved every bit of it. Barbarouses scored two of the goals, continuing his brilliant recent form which is going a long way to Melbourne Victory’s great overall form. Anyone know where Sydney were last Saturday, because they didn’t appear to be at the Sydney Football Stadium where they were meant to be playing Central Coast. They went into the match as an unbackable favourite, but only managed a draw. They fell behind very early in the game, from then it took them an hour to level up. They couldn’t score again though, leaving them with a draw from one of the most winnable fixtures on the calendar. I think Sydney bounce back, they’ll be extremely filthy about their effort last week and will come out firing. $2.60 looks nearly good enough, but I’d want just a bit better before I jumped into Sydney. Sit out and enjoy match for me.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne Victory      0

Sydney                         4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Melbourne Victory      $3.18

Sydney                         $2.41

Draw                           $3.70

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $2.80 Everywhere

Sydney                         $2.60 Bet365

Draw                           $3.45 Unibet, Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Melbourne Victory      $2.32

Sydney                         $1.76

 

Market Price:

Melbourne Victory      $2.04 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.80 Everywhere

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $1.94

Over                            $2.06

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.00 Bet365, Unibet

Over                            $1.90 Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Saturday 27 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) –  Westpac Stadium

The first of Saturday’s games is over in New Zealand between Wellington and Adelaide, a match where the market is struggling to find a favourite. Wellington were incredible last week, they played Newcastle at Hunter Stadium and beat them 3-2. If you watched the match it didn’t look like a fluke either, they played quality football, which they have been consistently doing lately. Newcastle was probably lucky to get their second goal too, it was in the last 5 minutes of the game. Adelaide were on the other end of the spectrum when they got an absolute hosing from Melbourne City. It was ugly at AAMI Park with the final score being 5-0. Adelaide never really looked all that dangerous either, which is something they need to change going forward. Based off last week’s efforts I’d be surprised if Wellington were to lose here, they’ve got the stronger form, and they’re at home, it looks a winning formula to me. $2.75 looks a steal too, can’t see why they’re that type of price. The best value for the match appears to be the Overs though with both teams coming off five goal matches, it’s hard to think that there won’t be least three goals scored here.

 

Last 5 games: 

Wellington                  0

Adelaide                      2

Draw                           3

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Wellington                  $2.22

Adelaide                      $3.41

Draw                           $3.91

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $2.75 Unibet

Adelaide                      $2.50 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.60 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Wellington                  $1.65

Adelaide                      $2.54

 

Market Price:

Wellington                  $1.98 Unibet

Adelaide                      $1.83 Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $3.91

Over                            $1.34

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.15 William Hill

Over                            $1.75 Ubet

 

Value:             Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $2.75

                        Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.98

 

 

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 27 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Saturday night’s a bit more lack-luster than we’re used to, but Central Coast and Brisbane fans will be excited to see their teams go at it in prime time. Central Coast pulled of a miraculous draw against Sydney last week, they were the longest of priced underdogs, but that didn’t faze them. They came flying out of the barriers and put away a goal within the first 10 minutes. Everyone expected Sydney to run over them throughout the game but they couldn’t. They managed to tie things up, but that’s as far as they got. That will be a point that Central Coast wouldn’t have been expecting when looking at their fixtures. Brisbane got the job done against Perth in Round 17 when they hosted them. It took them until the third time they led the match to hold on and get the win, not the most convincing, but you’ll take it every day of the week. They’re now only one win from the bottom of the finals positions, so they’ll have to keep grinding more wins like that. I’ve got Central Coast marked at $2.14, surely that’s one of their shortest rated prices in quite some time. It’s hard to ignore their recent form, and if they play like that again they should get the victory. Their price is a little tight for me to get too excited, but Over 2.5 Goals is juicy enough for me. Brisbane games are generally high scoring, hopefully this is no different.

 

Last 5 games: 

Central Coast              0

Brisbane                      4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Central Coast              $2.14

Brisbane                      $3.70

Draw                           $3.82

 

Market Price:

Central Coast              $2.20 Everywhere

Brisbane                      $3.40 Unibet

Draw                           $3.50 Palmerbet, Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Central Coast              $1.58

Brisbane                      $2.73

 

Market Price:

Central Coast              $1.57 William Hill

Brisbane                      $2.45 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.60

Over                            $1.62

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.00 Everywhere

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             Central Coast/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

 

 

Perth Glory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 28 January, 8:30pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

The final game of Round 18 is at NIB Stadium as Perth and Western Sydney go head to head. Perth were “ok” last Thursday. They were playing Brisbane away, so it was always an uphill battle. The first two times Brisbane scored Perth levelled things up quickly, but when Holman scored Brisbane’s third they couldn’t find an answer, and ended leaving them with a 3-2 loss. The silver lining was Harold scoring both of Perth’s goals, it’s always good to see your midfielders getting involved like that. Western Sydney were embarrassed at home last week when they hosted Melbourne Victory. While their opponents had been in good form, the home ground advantage should on been enough for Western Sydney to at least be competitive, if not get the win, but that was far from the end result. The final score was 3-0 in Melbourne Victory’s favour, leaving Western Sydney with a lot of disappointed fans. I couldn’t touch Western Sydney after last week, so I’ve got to be with Perth, back at home they’ll improve further. $2.50 will do me, I marked them just into odds-on.

 

Last 5 games:

Perth                           1

Western Sydney          2

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Perth                           $1.97

Western Sydney          $4.21

Draw                           $3.94

 

Market Price:

Perth                           $2.50 William Hill

Western Sydney          $2.80 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.60 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Perth                           $1.47

Western Sydney          $3.14

 

Market Price: 

Perth                           $1.80 William Hill

Western Sydney          $2.06 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.60

Over                            $1.62

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Palmerbet, Ubet

Over                            $1.66 Unibet

 

Value:             Perth – Head to Head – $1.97

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.80

 

 

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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