A-League 2017/18 – Round 19

A-League Football

Best Value

Brisbane/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

Best bet of the weekend is the “Overs” in the last game of the round. $1.82 for over 2.5 goals in this fixture is a luxury, and it should be a lot shorter. Both teams’ games over the past two weeks have gone over 2.5 goals, no reason why this won’t too.

Next Best Value

Wellington – Draw No Bet – $10.00

I know this is a long shot, so this is only for the real thrill seekers, but at $10 I could have a tiny dabble at Wellington in the Draw No Bet market. Sydney proved they can be vulnerable a couple of weeks back, and at double figures in the Draw No Bet market I’m prepared to risk it.

 

1st:       Brisbane/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

2nd:       Wellington – Draw No Bet – $10.00

3rd:       Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.50

4th:       Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.45

 

Sydney FC v Wellington Phoenix

Friday 2 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

Round 19 kicks-off with one of the most one-sided looking matches you’ll see, it’s Sydney and Wellington going at it at the Sydney Football Stadium. After a hiccup a couple weeks back Sydney bounced back with a great away win to Melbourne Victory. It started off a quiet affair with the game still scoreless at the break, but when the lads got back onto the pitch is when things started to fire up. Melbourne Victory drew first blood, but Sydney equalized within minutes. Sydney continued on their way then and put another couple goals away, leaving them with what was a comfortable 3-1 win in the end. Wellington struggled when at home last week to Adelaide in a 1-0 loss. They only managed to get two shots on goal for the match, and neither of them really worried the keeper. After such a good performance the week before this was a bit disappointing, I’m hoping they can bounce back to the form they showed against Newcastle this week. No reason why Sydney won’t win this, they are the far superior side, and last week tells me they’re back to their best form. That being said, $1.33 is a stupid price for any team in the A-League, and as crazy as it is I think I’ll have a nibble at Wellington at $10 in the Draw No Bet market, off both teams’ form from two weeks ago Wellington would be right in this.

 

Last 5 games:

Sydney                         4

Wellington                  0

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Sydney                         $1.51

Wellington                  $7.66

Draw                           $4.83

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.33 William Hill

Wellington                  $11.00 Bet365

Draw                           $5.50 TopBetta, Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Sydney                         $1.20

Wellington                  $6.07

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.10 Ladbrokes

Wellington                  $10.00 Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.70

Over                            $1.59

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.60 Ubet

Over                            $1.50 William Hill, Bet365

 

Value:             Wellington – Draw No Bet – $10.00

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $11.00

 

 

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 3 February, 5:35pm (AEDT) – hunter Stadium

This looks to be a mouth-watering match between Newcastle and Melbourne Victory on Saturday afternoon. Newcastle were playing away to Melbourne City last Thursday, which always looked a tough fixture for them, and although they didn’t get the win, they performed admirably. They struggled to hold possession for extended periods of time, but did some good things with the ball when they had it. The result was a 2-2 draw in the end, which is satisfactory for them in my books. Melbourne Victory hosted the league leaders in Sydney on Friday night, and while they put in a great showing for much of the match Sydney over-ran them in the final half an hour. Melbourne Victory had a 1-0 lead for a short period, but after Sydney’s firepower came to the fore they found themselves on the receiving end of a 3-1 loss. After only taking one point from their past two games I think Newcastle can snag all three this week. Back at home is ideal for them, along with Melbourne Victory coming off a loss, everything points to a win. More than happy to take the $2.50 currently available too, I marked them evens, so that’s big overs.

 

Last 5 games:

Newcastle                   1

Melbourne Victory      3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Newcastle                   $2.00

Melbourne Victory      $4.16

Draw                           $3.86

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $2.50 William Hill

Melbourne Victory      $2.75 Bet365

Draw                           $3.60 William Hill, TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Newcastle              $1.48

Melbourne Victory      $3.09

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.83 Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $1.98 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.14

Over                            $1.88

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.73 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.50

                        Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.83

 

 

Adelaide United v Perth Glory

Saturday 3 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Saturday night we’ve got Adelaide and Perth fighting it out at Hindmarsh Stadium. In Round 18 Adelaide got a cheeky road win against Wellington that they might not have been expecting. It was a game with little scoring chances from both sides, so they may have been a little lucky to get the win, but whether it was lucky or not they won’t care. That win now has them comfortably in the top 6 which is a big for this team of last year’s efforts. Perth had a nice easy win against Western Sydney when at home on Sunday. I always expected them to win, but they must go out onto the pitch and get the job done, so it was nice to see them do just that. It was a 3-1 victory, with all four goals coming in the first half strangely enough. Maybe they parked the bus a little after the break, but hey, they got the three points with little sweat. I’ve mentioned it many times, Perth has a real issue with playing away games, it has been the case for seasons now, so that alone should be enough for Adelaide to get the win here. Add in their solid form and they should have the winning formula. Alas, the bookies seem to be having a laugh with the prices they’ve put up, $1.80 for Adelaide is absurd, I’m more than happy to have a dab at Perth with money back for the draw at $3.45. Overs looks the safest bet in the match though.

 

Last 5 games:

Adelaide                      1

Perth                           3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Adelaide                      $2.10

Perth                           $3.77

Draw                           $3.89

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.80 Ladbrokes, TopBetta

Perth                           $4.50 Bet365

Draw                           $3.80 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.56

Perth                           $2.80

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.36 Ladbrokes

Perth                           $3.45 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                          $2.94

Over                            $1.52

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.68 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.45

                        Perth – Head to Head – $4.50

                        Adelaide/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

 

 

Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 4 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

The first match of the Sunday double-header is Central Coast vs Western Sydney, a match in which I struggled to split the two sides. Central Coast were a little disappointing when losing to Brisbane 2-1 at home. Previously you would have expected it, but after their huge draw against Sydney the week before I had high hopes for them. They’re still struggling in that final third of the pitch, only managing one shot on target for the whole match. Western Sydney were on the receiving end of a 3-1 loss when they travelled east to take on Perth. I don’t think many expected them to perform all that much better than a 3-1 loss suggests though, it’s a tough road trip, and Perth are always tough to beat over there. As much as I tried, I couldn’t split these sides, and had to rate them the exact same quote. The market seen the match similarly, not giving us any real edge, think I’ll be sitting this one out.

 

Last 5 games: 

Central Coast              1

Western Sydney          2

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Central Coast              $2.76

Western Sydney          $2.76

Draw                           $3.63

 

Market Price:

Central Coast              $2.68 Ladbrokes

Western Sydney          $2.87 Bet365

Draw                           $3.50 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Central Coast              $2.00

Western Sydney          $2.00

 

Market Price:

Central Coast              $1.82 Unibet

Western Sydney          $2.00 Bet365, Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.43

Over                            $1.70

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.05 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City

Sunday 4 February, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

The final game of Round 19 is at Suncorp Stadium, as Melbourne City pay Brisbane a visit. Brisbane did what they had to when travelling down the coast to face Central Coast. No road trip is easy, but Central Coast should be one of the least stressful on the calendar. They won the match 2-1, but the result didn’t ever really look in doubt with Central Coast rarely getting into many dangerous positions. Melbourne City came up short when hosting Newcastle last week. They had a chance to cut into the lead Newcastle has on them on the table but they had to settle for a draw. They might count themselves lucky to get a draw after trailing on two separate occasions, 2-2 might not be the worst for them. Tight one, but Melbourne City should be able to get the better of Brisbane, they need too as Newcastle and Sydney could quickly get away from them at the top of the ladder. Only decent prices appear to be in the Over/Under markets, with Over 2.5 Goals the best option.

 

Last 5 games: 

Brisbane                      2

Melbourne City           1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Brisbane                      $3.17

Melbourne City           $2.42

Draw                           $3.68

 

Market Price:

Brisbane                      $2.90 Everywhere

Melbourne City           $2.35 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.60 TopBetta, Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Brisbane                      $2.31

Melbourne City           $1.76

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $2.15 Ubet

Melbourne City           $1.73 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $3.41

Over                            $1.42

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.00 William Hill, Bet365

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             Brisbane/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82

 

 

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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