A-League 2017/18 – Round 21

Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $3.25

In a weekend of minimal chances to secure value, Perth looks the real stand-out in their match against Melbourne City. They’ve been a little average the last couple of weeks, but if you go back to their last game at home they easily took care of Western Sydney without much effort at all. NIB Stadium is the key to these guys, and I’m expecting another big performance.

Next Best Value

Brisbane/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

This looks the best Overs bet for the weekend. Both teams coming off Over 2.5 goal games, that ticks the right boxes for me, and at $1.68 I think you’re shopping well, I’ve got it marked at $1.47.

1st:       Perth – Head to Head – $3.25

2nd      Brisbane/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

3rd      Perth/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53

4th      Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.33

 

Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix

Friday 23 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

First game of Round 21 is Central Coast vs Wellington at Bluetongue Stadium. Last week Central Coast had to travel to Hindmarsh Stadium to take on Adelaide, and they went into the match as a big underdog. They wouldn’t have believed their luck when they were sitting 2-0 up in the second half, but somehow, they managed to throw it all away. Two goals in the last thirty minutes for Adelaide left Central Coast with only a draw. They’d be awfully disappointed throwing away a chance of a win like that, but pre-game, a draw from this fixture would have been a positive for them. Wellington impressed on Saturday when they hosted Perth, albeit it was their match to lose. Perth had to make the longest road trip in the A-League, so it was no surprise to see Wellington get the win. They may have got a little lucky though, it took them to injury time to get the winner, and that came in the form of an own-goal. Even with that win, Wellington still haven’t got off the bottom of the table, they’ll be hoping to change that this week. Tough task to split these, but Central Coast have the home ground advantage, which is enough for me to lean that way. Prices don’t look great though, and everything is pretty much lined up with my ratings, so I’ll be sitting out.

 

Last 5 games:

Central Coast              1

Wellington                  3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Central Coast              $2.42

Wellington                  $3.22

Draw                           $3.63

 

Market Price: 

Central Coast              $2.20 William Hill, TopBetta

Wellington                  $3.25 Unibet

Draw                           $3.65 Ladbrokes

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Central Coast              $1.75

Wellington                  $2.33

 

Market Price:

Central Coast              $1.62 Ladbrokes

Wellington                  $2.40 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.54

Over                            $1.65

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.15 William Hill

Over                            $1.70 Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 24 February, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

There’s a big A-League triple header on Saturday with the first of the three being Brisbane and Newcastle. Brisbane has had a week off after a huge away win to Melbourne Victory. They were the clear outsider in the match, but their 2-1 win didn’t suggest that. They did struggle to hold possession, but they got the job done where they needed to. Melbourne Victory’s goal was quite late too, almost a consolation goal. The week off should do wonders for them, so they should be right in this match against quality opposition. Newcastle were a slight let down for me last week, yet most would consider their draw against Western Sydney away a fair enough result. They were behind on two separate occasions during the match and fought back each time, so that was good to see. I really like this Newcastle side, but they are starting to drop too many points to be considered a threat to Sydney now I think. Slight lean to Newcastle here, but much like last week, they might not quite have the fire power to get the job done. Another match where the prices are pretty much bang on with my ratings, but the “Overs” looks great, and one of the better value bets of the weekend.

 

Last 5 games: 

Brisbane                      1

Newcastle                   4

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Brisbane                      $3.00

Newcastle                   $2.58

Draw                           $3.58

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $2.88 Sportsbet

Newcastle                   $2.40 Ubet, TopBetta

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Brisbane                      $2.16

Newcastle                   $1.86

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $2.11 Sportsbet

Newcastle                   $1.78 Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $3.13

Over                            $1.47

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.68 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Brisbane/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United

Saturday 24 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  AAMI Park

This is one of big two matches this round, we’ve got the Sydney Derby on Sunday, but on prime-time Saturday night we’ve got one of the original big rivalries, Melbourne Victory and Adelaide. Melbourne Victory had the week off, but boy did they need it after their extremely lack-luster performance to Brisbane the week prior. The game was played at AAMI Park, and they were playing a side that isn’t in the top six, so this was a 100% must win match for Melbourne Victory. While they dominated possession and shots at goal, that’s not what wins you points, it’s goals in the back of the net. Within the first half hour they were 2-0 down, and from there they could never quite fight back. They got a late goal through Troisi, but that was too little, too late for them. Adelaide let their fans down on Saturday when they hosted Central Coast, by only managing a draw. Early in the second half they were 2-0 down, but with some strong attacking late in the game they reeled in that lead to tie things up. They didn’t have enough time to break the deadlock though, and had to settle for just the one point. It’s getting tough to trust Melbourne Victory, but they should really be winning this match, they might just need to focus a bit more compared to their game against Adelaide. And yet again, it’s another game where there’s not much value to play with, looks like we’ll have to be pretty picky with any bets this weekend. On the plus side this should be a great game with plenty of fire between the sides.

 

Last 5 games:

Melbourne Victory      2

Adelaide                      2

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.97

Adelaide                      $4.14

Draw                           $3.98

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $2.10 TopBetta

Adelaide                      $3.60 Unibet

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Melbourne Victory      $1.48

Adelaide                      $3.10

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.48 Ubet

Adelaide                      $2.70 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                          $2.13

Over                            $1.89

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.15 William Hill

Over                            $1.75 Sportsbet, Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

Perth Glory v Melbourne City

Saturday 24 February, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

The late game Saturday night is between Perth and Melbourne City, and while it’s not a big rivalry like some games this weekend, this could be one of the best matches. Last week Perth made the dreaded road trip to New Zealand to face Wellington. Now I don’t know how long that flight it, but it’s long enough to make it difficult for any team to perform at their peak after that kind of travel. Needless to say they didn’t, and fell short losing the game 2-1. It wasn’t that bad of an effort really considering they only thing that cost them snaring a point from the match was an injury time own goal. They’ll be very keen to get back to winning ways this week now that they’re back at home. Melbourne City was demoralised two weeks ago when they hosted Sydney. I know Sydney is the best team going around, and Melbourne City class themselves as one of the top sides too, but a top side doesn’t get beaten 4-0 at home. Sydney had their measure all over the pitch, which was strange to see from this Melbourne City side. They’ve now had a week off to recuperate, it will be interesting to see if that loss had a positive or a negative effect on them going forward. I like Perth here, they’re always so strong at home, and after an away loss, you usually get a decent price about them too. And a decent price we do get, very happy with the $3.25 on offer, that will do me just fine.

 

Last 5 games: 

Perth                           3

Melbourne City           1

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Perth                           $2.43

Melbourne City           $3.12

Draw                           $3.73

 

Market Price: 

Perth                           $3.25 William Hill

Melbourne City           $2.15 Ubet

Draw                           $3.80 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Perth                           $1.78

Melbourne City           $2.28

 

Market Price: 

Perth                           $2.33 Unibet

Melbourne City           $1.62 Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $3.56

Over                            $1.39

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.55 Ubet

Over                            $1.53 Bet365, Sportsbet

 

Value:             Perth – Head to Head – $3.25

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.33

                        Perth/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53

 

 

Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 25 February, 6:30pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

Final match of Round 21 is the “Battle Of The Bridge”, the worst named derby of all time. Sydney is coming off what shouldn’t have been, but turned out to be, an absolute cake walk for them a couple weeks back. They had to travel south to take on Melbourne City away, no easy feat, but they sure made it look like one. After 90 minutes of pain for their opposition, Sydney walked out of AAMI Park with a 4-0 win. They’re now just clearing out from the rest of the teams at the top of the table, and are clearly the team to beat this season. Western Sydney hosted Newcastle last week and had to settle for a 2-2 draw. I don’t really know what to make of this, I’m usually expecting home teams in these situations to get all three points, but I do have a big opinion of Newcastle, so I might let them off the hook here. They were pretty good, and led on two separate occasions, but could never hold that lead and extend on it, leaving them with the draw. No surprises here, if Sydney turns up, they win. The prices on offer aren’t doing anything to excite me, so I’ll just be watching this one, investment free.

 

Last 5 games: 

Sydney                         2

Western Sydney          1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Sydney                         $1.49

Western Sydney          $7.41

Draw                           $5.17

 

Market Price:

Sydney                         $1.55 William Hill

Western Sydney          $6.00 Everywhere

Draw                           $4.50 TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Sydney                         $1.20

Western Sydney          $5.97

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.22 Ladbrokes

Western Sydney          $4.70 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.52

Over                            $1.66

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.50 William Hill

Over                            $1.57 Bet365

 

Value:             No value

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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