A-League 2017/18 – Round 22

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Western Sydney/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.50

This is a no brainer, anyone who has watched these teams this season knows this game is going 3 goals plus. $1.50 seems short enough, but I rated the Overs at $1.24, so it’s still massive value for mine.

Next Best Value

Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.55

Tough round to find value, but I think Newcastle has a sniff here, with the money back insurance anyway. Yes Sydney will be awfully hard to beat, but if they were ever going to lose a game, it’s most likely going to be against Newcastle away.

 

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Friday 2 March,7:50pm (AEDT) –  AAMI Park

Round 22 kicks-off on Friday night with the big Melbourne Derby down at AAMI Park. Melbourne City will be keen to bounce back after a lackluster performance against Perth last week. The game was played at NIB Stadium, which is always a tough road trip, but if Melbourne City want to be competitive at the very top level this season, they need to be at least drawing games like that, if not winning. They actually had the lead in the match with only 10 minutes to go, but two late goals for Perth left Melbourne City empty handed. Melbourne Victory were back to their winning ways with an easy kill against Adelaide at home. On paper they looked the better side going into the match, and the 3-0 score line after the 90 minutes suggested that they clearly were. The Melbourne sides are sitting in third and fourth positions on the ladder at the moment, so this is a big Derby. Should be cracking match, but if I had to pick a team I’d lean towards Melbourne City. Bookmakers aren’t offering anything to entice me into a bet though, would need to see a major drift to either side to get involved.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne City           2

Melbourne Victory      3

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Melbourne City           $2.58

Melbourne Victory      $2.93

Draw                           $3.70

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City           $2.40 William Hill, TopBetta

Melbourne Victory      $2.88 Unibet

Draw                           $3.60 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Melbourne City           $1.88

Melbourne Victory      $2.14

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne City           $1.75 Ubet

Melbourne Victory      $2.12 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.13

Over                            $1.89

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.12 Ubet

Over                            $1.70 Bet365, Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Newcastle Jets v Sydney FC

Saturday 3 March, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Another huge match is this belter on Saturday afternoon. It’s between the best two teams so far this season, Sydney and Newcastle, and while Sydney will be the deserved favourite, the game being played  at Hunter Stadium definitely evens things up a bit. In Round 21 Newcastle were on the road to Brisbane, and although it was a hard fought match, they came through with the goods. After both teams went goalless for the majority of the match it looked like it was going to be a draw, but thankfully for Newcastle, Champness came to their rescue, scoring the decider late in the game. Sydney hosted Western Sydney last week, and as you’d expect came away with the three points. They fell behind early in the game, but everyone knew Sydney would fight back. By the time the final whistle was blown Sydney had a 3-1 lead, continuing their dominance at the top of the table. While Newcastle gets a chance to cut into Sydney lead on the ladder, Sydney should be able to get the better of them still. At the prices, I’m inclined to lean towards Newcastle, especially in the Draw No Bet market, the $2.55 there will do me.

 

Last 5 games: 

Newcastle                   0

Sydney                         4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Newcastle                   $3.22

Sydney                         $2.41

Draw                           $3.64

 

Market Price:

Newcastle                   $3.50 Ladbrokes, Unibet

Sydney                         $2.15 William Hill

Draw                           $3.60 TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Newcastle                   $2.33

Sydney                         $1.75

 

Market Price:

Newcastle                   $2.55 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.53 Ladbrokes

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.45

Over                            $1.69

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.10 Everywhere

Over                            $1.75 Ubet

 

Value:             Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.55

                        Newcastle – Head to Head – $3.50

 

 

Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United

Saturday 3 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Saturday night Brisbane and Adelaide go head to head at Suncorp Stadium. Brisbane hosted Newcastle last week, not the easiest fixture, but for a side that intends on playing finals football, they should be getting at least a draw out of these kinds of matches, that wasn’t to be though. The game was stuck at 0-0 for nearly 80 minutes, surely leaving these teams to split the points, but a lapse in defense cost Brisbane as they let Newcastle sneak in a late goal. Adelaide travelled to AAMI Park to take on Melbourne Victory last week, but they didn’t bring their A-game. They were outclassed around the pitch, and never really looked likely to score. They only managed one shot on target all game, which is a telling stat. The final score was 3-0 to Melbourne Victory, and that’s pretty indicative of the game. Brisbane are the go here, at home they should have enough to take care of Adelaide who aren’t the best road team. Once again there doesn’t look to be much value around, if Brisbane drifted to $2.60 I’d entertain them, but other than that it might be another sit out match.

 

Last 5 games: 

Brisbane                      2

Adelaide                      2

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Brisbane                      $2.37

Adelaide                      $3.17

Draw                           $3.82

 

Market Price:

Brisbane                      $2.40 Everywhere

Adelaide                      $2.95 Unibet

Draw                           $3.50 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Brisbane                      $1.75

Adelaide                      $2.34

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                      $1.72 Bet365, Ubet

Adelaide                      $2.12 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $1.98

Over                            $2.02

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.10 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory

Sunday 4 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium

Western Sydney host Perth on Sunday at Spotless Stadium, and in a wide open round, they’ll start the shortest priced favourite this weekend. Western Sydney had Sydney away last Sunday, the fixture every team dreads, and as expected, they came away with a loss. They started the game flying with Riera giving them a 1-0 lead only 10 minutes into the game, but from then on it was all one way traffic for Sydney. The final score was 3-1 to Sydney, which to be honest, was pretty much as expected. Perth played Melbourne City last week, and in a strong performance took out all three points. Things weren’t looking great for them as they trailed 1-0 late in the game, but a couple of late goals through Kilkenny and Taggart turned things around for them, netting them the 2-1 victory. Perth are a pretty atrocious away side, so have to go with Western Sydney here, be surprised if they lost. The only value in this fixture looks to be the $1.50 for Over 2.5 Goals, I know it’s a short price, but this game looks one of the biggest locks ever to have 3+ goals scored.

 

Last 5 games: 

Western Sydney          1

Perth                           2

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Western Sydney          $2.14

Perth                           $3.71

Draw                           $3.79

 

Market Price: 

Western Sydney          $1.98 Ubet

Perth                           $3.75 Bet365

Draw                           $3.80 William Hill, TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Western Sydney          $1.58

Perth                           $2.74

 

Market Price:

Western Sydney          $1.44 Bet365, Unibet

Perth                           $2.80 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $5.15

Over                            $1.24

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.60 William Hill

Over                            $1.50 Bet365, Sportsbet

 

Value:             Western Sydney/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.50

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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