A-League 2017/18 – Round 23

A-League

Best Value

Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.25

It looks a pretty quiet weekend of value, so I’ll have to dive in where I can. This looks one of the only bets of the round, and I know Newcastle is in great form, but $3.25 with money back for a draw is just too big for Wellington. It’s a tough road match for any team, and Wellington have a knack of popping up when you don’t expect them to. Can get a better price Head to Head obviously, but I’d prefer the safer option.

Next Best Value

Adelaide/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

This looks a nice safe bet for the Friday night punters. $1.75 is more than a fair price for Overs in this game. Both team have solid goal scoring ability, and they shouldn’t have any trouble burying a few between them here.

1st:       Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.25

2nd:       Adelaide/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

3rd:       Wellington/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53

4th:       Wellington – Head to Head – $3.80

 

Adelaide United v Melbourne City

Friday 16 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Friday night’s match is Adelaide vs Melbourne City at Hindmarsh Stadium. Adelaide’s coming off a 1-0 loss to Brisbane last Saturday, but it was up in Queensland so I think you have to give them some slack. They were competitive for the majority of the 90 minutes, but could never link up attacking plays well enough to find the back of the net. Despite the loss they still hold a finals position, but they need to start getting better results from matches like that. Melbourne City hosted their across town rivals last week, but Melbourne Victory got the better of them. After falling a goal behind very early in the match, they managed to level things up in the second half. That wasn’t enough though as Melbourne Victory came back with a second goal, giving them all three points, and leaving Melbourne City empty handed. This is a nice tough game to start the round off, but Adelaide should be able to bounce back this week with a win. Head to head prices are pretty spot on with my ratings, so I’ll go with the Over 2.5 Goals at the $1.75 as the value.

 

Last 5 games: 

Adelaide                      1

Melbourne City           4

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Adelaide                      $2.57

Melbourne City           $2.93

Draw                           $3.72

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $2.55 Unibet

Melbourne City           $2.80 TopBetta

Draw                           $3.50 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Adelaide                      $1.88

Melbourne City           $2.14

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.83 Unibet

Melbourne City           $2.00 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.72

Over                            $1.58

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.05 William Hill, Ubet

Over                            $1.75 Bet365, Ubet

 

Value:             Adelaide/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

 

 

Wellington Phoenix v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 17 Marsh, 5:35pm (AEDT) – QBE Stadium

We head over to New Zealand on Saturday to see Wellington and Newcastle go head to head. Wellington are coming off a bit of a hammering in Round 22 when they travelled to Spotless Stadium to take on Western Sydney. They went into the match as a decent underdog, but I don’t think many were expecting the 4-1 score that they faced. Their defense was pretty poor throughout, and just couldn’t stop what Western Sydney threw at them. Newcastle were uber impressive when hosting Sydney last week. There’s no doubt that they are the second best team in the league, and when they got a chance to match up against Sydney on their home turf, they got to show what they were made of.  They would have been extremely relieved when the final whistle was blown though, and they were 2-1 up. There was so many shots fired off through the match from Sydney, but Newcastle’s tight defense did enough to hold them off. It’s no lock, but Newcastle should be able to beat Wellington, even if they do have to travel to New Zealand. I’ve actually got to go with the underdog here, I think at $3.25 in the Draw No Bet market, Wellington is worth a throw at the stumps. If you’re less of a thrill seeker than $1.53 for Over 2.5 Goals is solid too.

 

Last 5 games: 

Wellington                  3

Newcastle                   1

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Wellington                  $3.19

Newcastle                   $2.40

Draw                           $3.70

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $3.80 Everywhere

Newcastle                   $1.91 Sportsbet

Draw                           $3.80 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Wellington                  $2.33

Newcastle                   $1.75

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $3.25 Bet365

Newcastle                   $1.40 Everywhere

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $3.97

Over                            $1.34

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.62 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.53 Bet365

 

Value:             Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.25

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $3.80

                        Wellington/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53

 

 

Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 17 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

Sydney should have no trouble racking up another win when they host Brisbane on Saturday. They surprising had a loss last week when the travelled to Newcastle for their Round 22 fixture, only their second loss of the season. This was always going to be the hardest match on the calendar for them, Newcastle is obviously the second best team in the competition, and playing them away, it was always a danger match for them. Other than the fact that they went down 2-1, they actually dominated the match with huge amounts of possession, and shots taken. They won’t be worrying just yet, they’re still 8 points clear at the top of the table, but they’ll want to make sure there’s not too many more occurrences like that. Brisbane got the job done when they hosted Adelaide last week. It was only a 1-0 victory, and the match looked like it could go either way throughout the 90 minutes, but they got the three points, and that’s all that matters for a team in their position. They’re still outside the top 6, but they’re getting closer, so finals is still a reality for them. No surprises here, Sydney just wins. Would love to have a bet on them too, but at the prices I can’t, if they were to drift a little further, say $1.65, I’d be interested, but until then I’m sitting out.

 

Last 5 games: 

Sydney                         3

Brisbane                      0

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Sydney                         $1.50

Brisbane                      $7.60

Draw                           $5.00

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.55 William Hill

Brisbane                      $6.50 TopBetta, Bet365

Draw                           $4.35 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Sydney                         $1.20

Brisbane                      $6.08

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.20 Ladbrokes

Brisbane                      $5.10 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.92

Over                            $1.52

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Sportsbet, Ubet

Over                            $1.64 Bet365

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday 18 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The last game of Round 23 is another very one-sided affair, this one is Melbourne Victory hosting Central Coast. Melbourne Victory will be high on life after taking the honours in the most recent Melbourne Derby. It was a hard fought match, Victory scored first, then City levelled it up, but it was George who scored Melbourne Victory’s second goal, and in turn the game winner. Third to fifth on the ladder is currently getting very crowded, and a win like that goes a long way to pushing yourself towards that lucrative third position, making the finals task slightly easier. Melbourne Victory needs to make sure they continue to play their best football against the other tops teams to continue moving up. Central Coast travelled over west last week for their matchup against Perth. Perth is an extremely tricky team to face when they’re at home, and Central Coast felt the brunt of that last week. It was a tough match for them, and after the 90 minutes was run they found themselves on the receiving end of a 3-1 loss. The starting odds suggested that a result like that was probably to be expected though, so I guess they didn’t really underperform, it was just always going to be huge task for them. Another game where the clear favourite should have no trouble securing the win. And another game where the value just isn’t there to have a financial play. $1.70 is what I’d need to have a bet on Melbourne Victory, but most likely they won’t get there so it will be a quiet finish to Round 23.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne Victory      3

Central Coast              0

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Melbourne Victory      $1.56

Central Coast              $7.01

Draw                           $4.60

 

Market Price:

Melbourne Victory      $1.62 Sportsbet

Central Coast              $5.75 Unibet, Bet365

Draw                           $4.25 Ubet, TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Melbourne Victory      $1.22

Central Coast              $5.49

 

Market Price:

Melbourne Victory      $1.22 Everywhere

Central Coast              $4.50 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                          $2.14

Over                            $1.88

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.64 Bet365

 

Value:             No value

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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