A-League 2017/18 – Round 26

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Sydney – Head to Head – $2.10

I know Sydney has the Premiership wrapped up, and they don’t have much to play for, but I’m shocked that you can get better than even money for them. They are so much superior to Adelaide, and playing at home, this looks like a massive lock to me.

Next Best Value

Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.20

Another team who I’m surprised is $2.00+ is Newcastle. They’re at home to Perth, which you’d think would be a gimme for them. I rated them $1.64, so obviously think they should have no issues with securing all three points this week.

 

1st:       Sydney – Head to Head – $2.10

2nd      Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.20

3rd:       Melbourne City/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.70

4th:       Melbourne Victory/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $3.10

 

Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory

Friday 6 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

The round kicks off on Friday night when Newcastle host Perth at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle were very underwhelming in their 3-0 loss to Melbourne City last week. There is the defense that they have locked away second spot on the table, and can’t move to first, so the match was a “dead rubber”, but it was still disappointing to see. Perth gave away too big of a head start to Sydney when they faced each other last Thursday. At the half-time break they were 3-0 down, and basically all hope was lost. Taggart came through for them in the second half with a brace, but that’s all they could muster, leaving them with a 3-2 loss. That loss has now made making the finals very difficult for Perth. Even though they don’t need to, Newcastle should be winning this match, they’ve got the far better side, and the home ground advantage is massive against Perth. Newcastle look to be a great price too, as well as the “Overs”.

 

Last 5 games: 

Newcastle                   2

Perth                           1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Newcastle                   $1.64

Perth                           $5.99

Draw                           $4.48

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $2.20 William Hill

Perth                           $3.50 Bet365

Draw                           $3.75 Ubet, TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.27

Perth                           $4.65

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.58 Ubet, Unibet

Perth                           $2.50 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                          $3.26

Over                            $1.44

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.55 Ubet

Over                            $1.57 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.20

                        Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.58

                        Newcastle/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

 

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 7 April, 5:35pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium

Western Sydney will be looking to take that last finals position back from Brisbane when they face them on Saturday afternoon. Last week Western Sydney dropped all three points when they faced Melbourne Victory. The game was at AAMI Park, so a loss was pretty much expected, but they would be disappointed none the less. They went down 3-1, but that score line is a little harsher than maybe it should have been as they were dominate in possession. Brisbane nudged themselves up to sixth spot on the table with their 1-0 win over Central Coast on Saturday. To be honest, I actually expected them to win easier, but a win is a win, and at this time of the year you’ll take the points however you can get them. In fairness Central Coast rarely looked like breaking through their defense, so maybe once they took the lead they “parked the bus” a little. This looks the toughest game of the round to tip, but I’m leaning towards Western Sydney, back at home, and off that poor performance, I can see them bouncing back strongly. The market looks bang on with my rated prices so think I’ll be sitting this one out.

 

Last 5 games:

Western Sydney          1

Brisbane                      2

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Western Sydney          $2.25

Brisbane                      $3.54

Draw                           $3.66

 

Market Price:

Western Sydney          $2.40 William Hill

Brisbane                      $2.90 TopBetta

Draw                           $3.63 Pointsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Western Sydney          $1.64

Brisbane                      $2.57

 

Market Price:

Western Sydney          $1.74 Unibet

Brisbane                      $2.20 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.51

Over                            $1.66

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.12 Ubet

Over                            $1.70 Bet365, Ubet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Melbourne City v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 7 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Not much of a blockbuster for prime-time this Saturday with Melbourne City most likely getting an easy kill by hosting Central Coast. Last week Melbourne City was uber impressive when they gave Newcastle a 3-0 thumping at Hunter Stadium. Yes, Newcastle had nothing to play for with their fate already determined, but 3-0 away to a top side, no matter the situation is always impressive to see. Central Coast weren’t terrible on their road trip to Brisbane. They lost 1-0, but most would of thought they take more of a beating, so that’s something. Once again Central Coast won’t be playing finals this year, but hopefully they can still put forward some decent efforts. Melbourne City should just be winning this, I’ve rated them very low at $1.51. Unfortunately bookies have marked them even lower, so I can’t be backing Melbourne City, I could possibly have a tiny nibble at Central Coast at the price, but Under 2.5 Goals or the “Draw” are the more enticing options.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne City           3

Central Coast              0

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Melbourne City           $1.51

Central Coast              $7.33

Draw                           $4.93

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City           $1.40 Sportsbet

Central Coast              $9.50 Bet365

Draw                           $5.50 Ubet, TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Melbourne City           $1.21

Central Coast              $5.84

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City           $1.14 Sportsbet

Central Coast              $8.00 Bet365, Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.06

Over                            $1.94

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.70 Bet356, Ubet

Over                            $1.45 Ubet

 

Value:             Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $8.00

                        Central Coast – Head to Head – $9.50

                        Melbourne City/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.70

                        Draw – Head to Head – $5.50

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix

Sunday 8 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

On Sunday we have another short priced Victorian side when Melbourne Victory host Wellington at AAMI Park. As expected Melbourne Victory got the job done in Round 25 when hosting Western Sydney, as they went into the match as a short priced favourite, and they didn’t let backers down. They seemed to struggle holding possession for long periods of time, but that didn’t stop them scoring, especially an absolute worldie from Deng. The score at the final whistle was 3-1, which I think was well deserved. They’re still in a head to head battle with their rivals Melbourne City for the third spot on the table, so every match is vital to them. Wellington lost when on the road to Adelaide last Friday. A loss from that fixture was always going to be the result realistically. Best case scenario for them for this season is that they get themselves off the bottom of the table, but at this stage even that is looking unlikely. If Melbourne Victory turn up fit, they should win this match comfortably. Absolutely no value in Melbourne Victory though, so I’m looking at the “Draw” as possibly some sneaky value at the $5.50 mark.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne Victory      3

Wellington                  2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.56

Wellington                  $7.01

Draw                           $4.60

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.37 Pointsbet

Wellington                  $9.00 Bet365

Draw                           $5.50 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.22

Wellington                  $5.49

 

Market Price:

Melbourne Victory      $1.13 Ladbrokes

Wellington                  $7.00 Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.54

Over                            $1.65

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $3.10 Ubet

Over                            $1.53 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Wellington – Head to Head – $9.00

                        Wellington – Draw No Bet – $7.00

                        Melbourne Victory/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $3.10

                        Draw – Head to Head – $5.50

 

 

Sydney FC v Adelaide United

Sunday 8 April, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

Last game of the round looks to be yet another wipeout as league leaders (and unofficial Premiers) Sydney take on Adelaide at the Sydney Football Stadium. Sydney had a nice win over west last week when they played Perth away. Perth are a notoriously tough team to face on the road, but that didn’t stop Sydney dominating. The match was all over at half time when they lead 3-0. They did take the foot off the pedal in the second half, allowing Perth to score two goals to make things interesting, but they never looked like losing really. Adelaide got a relatively easy win on Friday when they hosted Wellington. It was a match that they were always going to win, but it was god to see them get it done, whereas other times throughout the season they might have not. They’re right in the thick of the finals positions, so every point they can manage in these last few games will go a long way to their final position on the table. If Sydney want to win, they will, they’ve got the best team in the league by some margin, and at Sydney Football Stadium they’re near untouchable. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw $2.10 is on offer, how is that possible. You’re not going to find much better value than that all season long in my books.

 

Last 5 games: 

Sydney                         4

Adelaide                      0

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Sydney                         $1.56

Adelaide                      $6.49

Draw                           $4.84

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $2.10 Unibet, TopBetta

Adelaide                      $3.60 Bet365

Draw                           $3.62 Pointsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Sydney                         $1.24

Adelaide                      $5.14

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.57 Ladbrokes

Adelaide                      $2.75 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.54

Over                            $1.65

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.10 William Hill, Bet365

Over                            $1.80 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Sydney – Head to Head – $2.10

                        Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.57

                        Sydney/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80

 

 

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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