A-League 2017/18 – Round 27

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Sydney – Head to Head – $2.05

They were the best bet of the round last week and they’ve come up again at $2.05, I don’t know what bookies are doing with Sydney, but I’m happy to take advantage of it. Granted Melbourne Victory is a better team than Adelaide, but evens or better is highway robbery in my books.

Next Best Value

Wellington/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

Overs looks a certainty here, I know $1.57 seems short enough, but I think it’s a “better than bank interest” job here. These teams are both prone to high scoring games, and this will be very similar.

 

1st:       Sydney – Head to Head – $2.05

2nd:       Wellington/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

3rd:       Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.75

4th:       Perth/Brisbane – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.75

 

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Friday 13 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

It’s the last round of the regular season and we kick it off with a cracking match between Sydney and Melbourne Victory. Sydney was super impressive last week when they hosted Adelaide. I thought they were the best bet of the week and they didn’t let me down with a comfortable 3-0 win. They’re already the premiers, and are a short priced favourite to win the championship too, so they’ll be keen to head into the first week of finals in winning form following this match. Melbourne Victory played Wellington at home last Sunday, and as you’d expect they got the three points. After falling behind early in the match thanks to an own goal, they looked a little lucky as they managed to slot two goals in the last ten minutes to take the honours. This is an important match for Melbourne Victory, as they need to win this match to move into third place on the table. Even if they get the win, Melbourne City can still jump above them on the table, but they’ve got to give themselves the best chance. Sydney shouldn’t have issues racking up their final three points of the season. $2.05 seems like a huge price to me as well, once again they look the best value of the round.

 

Last 5 games: 

Sydney                         4

Melbourne Victory      0

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Sydney                         $1.72

Melbourne Victory      $5.36

Draw                           $4.32

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $2.05 Everywhere

Melbourne Victory      $3.50 Bet365

Draw                           $3.75 TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Sydney                         $1.32

Melbourne Victory      $4.12

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.50 Everywhere

Melbourne Victory      $2.50 Everywhere

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   

Under                          $2.67

Over                            $1.60

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.20 Sportsbet, Bet365

Over                            $1.64 Bet365

 

Value:             Sydney – Head to Head – $2.05

                        Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.50

 

 

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City

Saturday 14 April, 5:35pm (AEDT) – QBE Stadium

Saturday afternoon Melbourne City head across the ditch to take on Wellington in what could be a must win match for them depending on the result of the Friday night match. Wellington played the other Melbourne side last week at AAMI Park, but unfortunately came away with a loss. Through an own goal they hit the lead early in the match, and they held that 1-0 advantage for a long time. Coming into the last ten minutes they were still in the lead, but a couple of lapses in defense late in the piece cost them two goals, leading to their 2-1 loss. The season is all over for them, their only incentive is winning this match might get them off the bottom of the table. Melbourne City was far from impressive last week, but they squeezed out a 1-0 win against Central Coast, which is all they needed to do. If Melbourne Victory win their match on Friday night, City will need to win this to hold their third spot on the ladder. Melbourne City has won the last five fixtures between these sides, and they should be able to make it six in a row. The prices aren’t there to have a bet in this match, but I’m happy to have the Over 2.5 Goals in my corner, as there should be plenty of attacking.

 

Last 5 games: 

Wellington                  0

Melbourne City           5

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Wellington                  $3.76

Melbourne City           $2.11

Draw                           $3.83

 

Market Price:

Wellington                  $3.95 Unibet

Melbourne City           $1.91 Ladbrokes

Draw                           $3.80 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Wellington                  $2.78

Melbourne City           $1.56

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $2.90 Unibet

Melbourne City           $1.50 Ladbrokes

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $3.97

Over                            $1.34

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.37 Bet365

Over                            $1.57 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Wellington/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

 

 

Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 14 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

The second of three Saturday match is between Central Coast and Newcastle at Bluetongue Stadium. Central Coast fought hard last week when on the road to Melbourne City, but they couldn’t hold them out for the whole match. When the final whistle was blown the scoreboard showed 1-0 in Melbourne City’s favour. A win or draw here will guarantee that they don’t finish bottom of the table, so that’s something for them to strive for. Newcastle’s form has really dropped off lately, and they showed it in all its glory when they went down 2-0 to Perth last Friday at Hunter Stadium. Now I know the match meant nothing to them, just like this one doesn’t, they’ve secured their second spot on the table and nothing can change that. But they’d want to chalk up a win before finals though I’m sure. Newcastle will be very keen to bounce back after the last couple of weeks and shouldn’t have much trouble knocking off Central Coast here. The value isn’t really there to have a bet for me, plus it’s hard to trust Newcastle off last week’s match.

 

Last 5 games: 

Central Coast              2

Newcastle                   1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Central Coast              $3.43

Newcastle                   $2.27

Draw                           $3.73

 

Market Price: 

Central Coast              $3.30 Ladbrokes

Newcastle                   $2.25 TopBetta, Unibet

Draw                           $3.75 TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Central Coast              $2.51

Newcastle                   $1.66

 

Market Price: 

Central Coast              $2.50 Ladbrokes

Newcastle                   $1.63 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.52

Over                            $1.66

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.37 Bet365

Over                            $1.57 Sportsbet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 14 April, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

Late Saturday night we have Perth at home to Brisbane in one of the most crucial matches of this final round. Perth is coming off a great win on the road to Newcastle last week. They’re never been known as a great road team, but they were very strong throughout the 90 minutes. They’ve been in pretty solid form over the past month or so, and winning here could secure them a slot in the finals. Brisbane really struggled last week when they played Western Sydney on the road. Their defense kept on getting caught out, giving Western Sydney a huge 28 shots at goal. Unfortunately for Brisbane three of them hit the back of the net, and that was the match. Like Perth, a win here for Brisbane gives them a good chance of snagging that last finals spot so they’ll be throwing everything they have at the match. Tough match to actually split these two, but leaning towards Perth, I think. Best value in the match for mine is the under 2.5 Goals, I actually don’t see all that many goals being scored here with both teams playing hard defense throughout the match.

 

Last 5 games: 

Perth                           2

Brisbane                      2

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Perth                           $2.43

Brisbane                      $3.14

Draw                           $3.70

 

Market Price: 

Perth                           $2.10 William Hill

Brisbane                      $3.40 Unibet, TopBetta

Draw                           $4.00 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Perth                           $1.78

Brisbane                      $2.29

 

Market Price: 

Perth                           $1.50 Everywhere

Brisbane                      $2.50 Everywhere

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.48

Over                            $1.68

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.75 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.50 Bet365

 

Value:             Perth/Brisbane – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.75

                       Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.50

 

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United

Sunday 15 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium

Final match of the regular season is between Western Sydney and Adelaide. Western Sydney had a dominant win over Brisbane at home last Saturday. They owned them for the entire 90 minutes, firing off 28 shots at goal throughout the match. They buried three of those opportunities in the first half, and from there it was game over. No more goals were scored by either side, in the second half, giving them the 3-0 victory. If either Brisbane or Perth win the match the night before (just not a draw), then Western Sydney will need to take all three points from this fixture to hold onto their finals spot, so it could be a very important match for them. Adelaide lost 3-0 to Sydney last week when on the road, which is pretty much the result you’d expect. Their place on the table is locked down, but they’ll want to get back into decent form for the post season after last week’s efforts. Western Sydney should be able to get the win here, and the added pressure of playing finals should be enough incentive to get them over the line. At the odds I’ve got to be with Adelaide, especially if the Perth/Brisbane match ends in a draw, but it’s far from a confident play.

 

Last 5 games:

Western Sydney          0

Adelaide                      2

Draw                           3

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Western Sydney          $2.35

Adelaide                      $3.26

Draw                           $3.73

 

Market Price:

Western Sydney          $2.12 William Hill

Adelaide                      $3.75 Bet365

Draw                           $3.65 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Western Sydney          $1.72

Adelaide                      $2.38

 

Market Price:

Western Sydney          $1.45 Unibet

Adelaide                      $2.75 Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.12

Over                            $1.90

 

Market Price:

Under                          $2.10 Sportsbet, Bet365

Over                            $1.70 Bet365

 

Value:             Adelaide – Head to Head – $3.75

                        Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.75

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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