A-League 2017/18 – Round 8

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Wellington – Head to Head – $2.10

In a round of very little value Wellington looks the clear standout. $2.10 is a luxury in my books and I have no doubt that they’ll start an odds-on favourite. Central Coast have shown little so far this season, and a long road trip like this makes it even tougher for them.

Next Best Value

Wellington/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals $1.56

Same match as the best value of the round is the next best of the round, this time it’s in the Over/Under market. The defenses of both sides are average at best, and it doesn’t take much to pull them apart. A 3-1 score line to Wellington would not surprise me in the slightest, so Over 2.5 Goals appears to be a great look.

Best Value:

1st:       Wellington – Head to Head – $2.10

2nd:       Wellington/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals $1.56

3rd:       Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.50

4th:       Adelaide/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Thursday 23 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

We’ve got another Thursday night game this round, this time around it’s Newcastle hosting Melbourne Victory who are having a quick back-up after playing just four days ago on Sunday. While Newcastle lost their game against Sydney last week, it was only 2-1, and it was away, so I don’t think you can take much away from their performance. They’ve been the surprise packet of the 2017/18 season so far, and after that performance they’ve proved to me they can compete with the big boys this season. They’re second place on the table, even after that loss, and I think they deserve it. It was only a few days ago that Melbourne Victory got their first win of the season. It was away to Perth, so I didn’t expect them to breakthrough there, but you always knew it was coming. It was Berisha and their new young gun George who put goals on the scoreboard which I think will be important for both of their confidences going forward. Melbourne Victory could go on a run after getting that first win out of the way, but this Newcastle side is in good form, and will be extremely tough to knock over at home. It should be a great match, and a pretty close one for mine, but I can’t ignore what Newcastle has down so far this season, so I’ve got to be with them. As you can see below the bookie prices and my rated prices are near identical, so no play for me, I’d need $2.80+ about Newcastle before I got involved.

 

Last 5 games:
Newcastle                   0

Melbourne Victory      3

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Newcastle                   $2.57

Melbourne Victory      $3.00

Draw                           $3.60

 

Market Price:
Newcastle                   $2.55 Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $2.70 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.60 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Newcastle                   $1.86

Melbourne Victory      $2.17

 

Market Price: 
Newcastle                   $1.85 Sportsbet

Melbourne Victory      $2.05 William Hill

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $2.31

Over                            $1.76

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.10 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.80 Bet365

 

Value:             No value

 

Melbourne City v Perth Glory

Friday 24 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Friday night see’s Melbourne City hosting Perth at AAMI Park for what will most likely be a one-sided affair. Melbourne City is coming off a 3-1 loss last week to Brisbane. It was a little surprising to see them get beat like that, but on the road, you can always forgive them. They had a lot more shots than their opposition, but they just didn’t have the finishing touches they needed. Back to Victoria is a huge advantage for them along with the added cherry of keeping in touch with the top two sides on the table. Perth were disappointing last week, they played at home to Melbourne Victory, who at the time still hadn’t won their first game of the season. They lost 2-0, and while their kept the scores even through the first half, after the break they just couldn’t keep up with Melbourne Victory. They’re a poor away side that they need to make the most of every game they play at NIB Stadium. No shockers here, Melbourne City should just be winning. Unfortunately, another game were the market is bang on with my ratings, I’d only entertain them if they got out to $1.85+ which you’d imagine would be pretty unlikely.

 

Last 5 games:
Melbourne City           1

Perth                           3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Melbourne City           $1.70

Perth                           $5.49

Draw                           $4.34

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne City           $1.67 Sportsbet, Palmerbet

Perth                           $5.00 William Hill, Palmerbet

Draw                           $4.30 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Melbourne City           $1.31

Perth                           $4.22

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne City           $1.30 William Hill

Perth                           $3.75 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.90

Over                            $1.53

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.50 William Hill

Over                            $1.58 Sportsbet

 

Value:             No value

 

           

Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 25 November, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

It’s the “bottom of the table battle” as Wellington and Central Coast go head to head in what I’m sure will be an enthralling match. Wellington was scheduled to play Western Sydney last week but due to weather the game was postponed. The week prior they managed to get their season underway in a massive way. They were hosting Perth and absolutely blew them out of the water, beating them 5-2. If they bring another performance like that I’m sure they’ll be more than competitive again. Early days I thought Central Coast might have a bit of a better season this year, but it looks like they’re back to their old tricks. They were hosting Adelaide and after taking a lead in the first half things were looking good. The second half was one to forget though, they let in two goals, one of which was deep in injury time, leaving them with nothing out of the match. I think Wellington are just about morals, if Central Coast can’t beat Adelaide at home, how are they meant to travel to New Zealand and beat Wellington. I’m shocked that better than even money is available for them too, I have them deep in the red. In a round that looks light on as far as value is concerned, this looks like the play of the week.

 

Last 5 games:
Wellington                  3

Central Coast              2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Wellington                  $1.66

Central Coast              $6.00

Draw                           $4.34

 

Market Price:
Wellington                  $2.10 Sportsbet

Central Coast              $3.60 Bet365

Draw                           $3.75 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Wellington                  $1.28

Central Coast              $4.61

 

Market Price:
Wellington                  $1.50 Unibet

Central Coast              $2.62 Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $3.49

Over                            $1.40

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.55 Unibet

Over                            $1.56 Palmerbet

 

Value:             Wellington – Head to Head – $2.10

                        Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.50

                        Wellington/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals $1.56

 

           

Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 25 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

Sydney will start as the shortest priced favourite of the round when they host Brisbane on Saturday night. Sydney impressed me last week with their win against Newcastle who I have a big opinion of. After taking a 2-0 lead Newcastle pulled back a goal which could have been dangerous for Sydney, but they fought all the way to the line. They dominated possession and pumped plenty of shots in at goals, which they seem to be doing most matches, which is a great sign for them, they might not of dropped off at all from last season. Brisbane got their maiden win of the season out of the way last week when they hosted Melbourne City. I was a little shocked to see them win, and win quite easily, 3-1. It will be interesting to see if they can continue to hold that form, or if it was a bit of a fluke, I’m thinking the latter to be honest. This is the almighty test for Brisbane too, if they can keep within a goal of Sydney I’d be very surprised. Obviously, Sydney is the selection here, they won’t have any trouble winning this, I’m thinking 2-0 the likely score. Even though Sydney looks a lock, you’d have to give me at least $1.70 before I dive into the tomato sauce odds.

 

Last 5 games:
Sydney                         1

Brisbane                      2

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Sydney                         $1.53

Brisbane                      $6.80

Draw                           $5.00

 

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.55 William Hill

Brisbane                      $6.10 Unibet

Draw                           $4.33 Bet365, Palmerbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  
Sydney                         $1.23

Brisbane                      $5.44

 

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.19 Bet365, Palmerbet

Brisbane                      $4.80 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.14

Over                            $1.88

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.25 William Hill

Over                            $1.75 Bet365

 

Value:             No value

 

           

Adelaide United v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 26 November, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Round 8 finishes up over at Hindmarsh Stadium with Adelaide and Western Sydney going at it. Adelaide somehow managed to come away with the three points from their trip to Bluetongue Stadium last week. After going a goal down they levelled things up through Adlung. As the minutes rolled by the game looked certain to end in a draw, but deep in injury time Kitto made a hero of himself by scoring a second goal for Adelaide, giving them the 2-1 win over Central Coast. Western Sydney was scheduled to play Wellington last week but due to weather the game was postponed. In Round 6 they had a 1-1 draw with Melbourne City, down in Victoria, so it was a decent result, and as good as they could have hoped for. They played a good match too, dominating the possession throughout the 90 minutes. They are having a bit of trouble finishing off in the final third, but as the games go on that should change quickly. Very tough match to pick a winner, and off my ratings I marked the sides equal $2.74 favourites, couldn’t split them. Again the market is right on and leaving no value what so ever in the head to head prices, thankfully Over 2.5 Goals looks a play in this match though so I’ll be jumping on there.

 

Last 5 games:
Adelaide                      2

Western Sydney          1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Adelaide                      $2.74

Western Sydney          $2.74

Draw                           $3.71

 

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $2.65 Everywhere

Western Sydney          $2.60 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.50 Bet365, Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  
Adelaide                      $2.00

Western Sydney          $2.00

 

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $1.95 William Hill

Western Sydney          $1.88 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $2.43

Over                            $1.70

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.02 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.85 Bet365

 

Value:             Adelaide/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

Leave a Reply