A-League 2017/18 – Round 9

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Sydney – Head to Head – $2.15

Best bet of the weekend is easy, we’re getting better than even money for the best team in the league, and against Adelaide, it’s that simple. Sydney are looking as good as ever to me, and can see them taking care of Adelaide rather easily.

Next Best Value

Newcastle/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals –  $1.73

Both teams’ last two games have gone overs, why wouldn’t this game have 3, 4 or 5 goals scored. There’s a few games where Overs looks the play in the match, but I think this one takes the cake.

Best Value:

1st:       Sydney – Head to Head – $2.15

2nd:       Newcastle/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals –  $1.73

3rd:       Wellington/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

4th:       Wellington – Head to Head – $3.10

 

Adelaide United v Sydney FC

Friday 1 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  Hindmarsh Stadium

Round 9 kicks-off with a Top 4 battle between Adelaide and Sydney at Hindmarsh. Last week Adelaide had one of their more impressive performances of the season when they beat Western Sydney 2-0. Now Western Sydney haven’t been in the best form, but that doesn’t take away from Adelaide’s win. The star of the show was Kitto who buried both of their goals from limited opportunities. Sydney had Brisbane at home, so as you’d expect they came away with a very easy win. The final score line was 3-1, but Brisbane scored their consolidation goal deep in injury time, Sydney really dominated. Other than the fact that Sydney is on the road, I think they’re just about a moral here. If they were at home I’d home them in the $1.50 range, but away I have them $1.88. $2.15 is on offer and I think that is like taking candy from a baby personally, it’s the best bet of the round.

Last 5 games:
Adelaide                      1

Sydney                         3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Adelaide                      $4.60

Sydney                         $1.88

Draw                           $3.99

 

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $3.60 Bet365

Sydney                         $2.15 William Hill

Draw                           $3.55 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  
Adelaide                      $3.44

Sydney                         $1.41

 

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $2.50 Bet365

Sydney                         $1.53 Ladbrokes, Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.27

Over                            $1.79

 

Market Price:
Under                          $1.95 Bet365

Over                            $1.90 Crownbet

 

Value:             Sydney – Head to Head – $2.15

 

           

Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 2 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) –  ANZ Stadium

The Saturday afternoon game is Western Sydney vs Brisbane, and there looks to be a little bit of value in it for us. Western Sydney were disappointing when they lost 2-0 to Adelaide. I don’t overly rate Adelaide, I think they’ve had a pretty easy draw so far, so to lose 2-0 to them, and not really put up any kind of fight is just poor in my books. Brisbane got spanked by Sydney last week, but when the game was played at Sydney Football Stadium you couldn’t expect any other result. Sydney are the class side of the league in my opinion so I take the result with a grain of salt. Western Sydney look the obvious pick, being at home you’d think they should be able to pull out a win. Even though “tipping” wise I’m leaning to Western Sydney, I’m happy to have a small nibble at Brisbane at the price, $4.50 looks juicy enough to me.

Last 5 games:
Western Sydney          1

Brisbane                      1

Draw                           3

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Western Sydney          $2.00

Brisbane                      $4.14

Draw                           $3.88

 

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.83 William Hill, Sportsbet

Brisbane                      $4.50 Bet365

Draw                           $3.85 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:    Western Sydney          $1.48

Brisbane                      $3.07

 

Market Price:
Western Sydney          $1.36 William Hill

Brisbane                      $3.30 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.22

Over                            $1.82

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.08 Unibet

Over                            $1.80 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Brisbane – Head to Head – $4.50

 

           

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City

Saturday 2 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) –  Hunter Stadium

This is a juicy game, Newcastle and Melbourne City, second vs third on the table. Newcastle just keep surprising everyone, and last week was no exception. I thought they’d beat Melbourne Victory, but I didn’t expect to see a 4-1 score line. Melbourne Victory took the lead minutes into the game, but from that point onwards Newcastle took over the game. Ironically three of Newcastle’s goals came from ex-Melbourne Victory players just to stick the knife in that little bit further. Newcastle are deserving of their place near the top of the table with the football they’ve been playing, hopefully they keep it up all season. Melbourne City were probably the most disappointing team of Round 8. They were hosting Perth, who is a renowned poor road team, and even though they dominated possession with 64% they only scored 1 goal, compared to the three that they let in. They’re a top-quality team, and they can’t afford many performances like that throughout the season if they want to be a contender. Tough game, but Newcastle should continue on their winning ways. Market isn’t too bad, but not quite enough value for me, I’ll be waiting to see in Newcastle hits $2.60, then I’ll be getting involved. Overs at $1.73 looks the play in this game for me though, should be no issues with goals in this.

Last 5 games: 
Newcastle                   2

Melbourne City           3

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Newcastle                   $2.36

Melbourne City           $3.23

Draw                           $3.74

 

Market Price:
Newcastle                   $2.43 Unibet

Melbourne City           $2.80 William Hill, TopBetta

Draw                           $3.60 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Newcastle                   $1.73

Melbourne City           $2.37

 

Market Price: 
Newcastle                   $1.78 Unibet

Melbourne City           $2.09 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $3.65

Over                            $1.38

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.14 Unibet

Over                            $1.73 Palmerbet

 

Value:             Newcastle/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals –  $1.73

 

           

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 3 December, 2:30pm (AEDT) –  Westpac Stadium

Even though the market doesn’t suggest it, I’m saying this is the toughest game of the weekend to pick the winner. Wellington left a lot to be desired with their 4-1 loss to Central Coast last week at home. It’s hard to forgive them after that but I guess every team has a terrible performance from time to time. They’re starting to worry me though with only one win to their name thus far. A team who is no better on the win count is Melbourne Victory who are still surprisingly on just the one win. Last week they travelled north to play Newcastle and were never a match for them. They ended up going down 4-1, which is just something you wouldn’t have seen from this team last year, it’s worrying times for them as well. I couldn’t split these teams in anyway, I rated them both $2.74 and give them equal chances of winning. The market is favouring Melbourne Victory, so in turn I’m favouring Wellington at the price. I’m obviously not too confident with Wellington though, and Over 2.5 Goals is the best action for this match I think, both sides defenses have been atrocious of late.

Last 5 games: 
Wellington                  3

Melbourne Victory      2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Wellington                  $2.74

Melbourne Victory      $2.74

Draw                           $3.71

 

Market Price:
Wellington                  $3.10 William Hill

Melbourne Victory      $2.25 Palmerbet

Draw                           $3.75 Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Wellington                  $2.00

Melbourne Victory      $2.00

 

Market Price:
Wellington                  $2.25 William Hill, Sportsbet

Melbourne Victory      $1.65 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under                          $4.20

Over                            $1.31

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.33 Unibet

Over                            $1.64 Palmerbet

 

Value:             Wellington/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $3.10

                        Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.25

 

           

Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory

Sunday 3 December, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Last game of the round is yet another tricky affair, this one is between Central Coast and Perth. Central Coast shocked me with their 4-1 win away to Wellington in Round 8. Without going back through their record I’d think it would have been sometime since they netted four goals in an away match. That was only their second win of the season, so I’m not getting too carried away, but it’s a move in the right direction for them. Perth were equally impressive in their trip to Melbourne to face Melbourne City. Everyone knows how bad a road record they have, but that didn’t stop them winning 3-1 on this occasion. They only had 36% of possession, so the result is a bit of a worry, was it a fluke, or were they just deadly when they had the ball, I’m leaning to the former. They’ve now crept into fifth place on the table and are going about things the right way. They’ve always got that huge advantage when they play at home in WA, so they should rake up plenty more wins this season too. Giving the nod to Perth, just. I’m worried that they can’t reproduce a result like last week, but you’ve got to give them their chance. Once again Overs looks the best play, but at $3.60 you don’t need to twist my arm to get invested with Perth either.

Last 5 games:
Central Coast              2

Perth                           2

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Central Coast              $2.85

Perth                           $2.59

Draw                           $3.81

 

Market Price: 
Central Coast              $2.10 Palmerbet

Perth                           $3.60 Bet366

Draw                           $3.80 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Central Coast              $2.10

Perth                           $1.91

 

Market Price: 
Central Coast              $1.54 Sportsbet

Perth                           $2.55 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under                          $4.17

Over                            $1.32

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.50 William Hill

Over                            $1.54 Unibet, Palmerbet

 

Value:             Central Coast/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.54

                        Perth – Head to Head – $3.60

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.55

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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