A-League 2017/18 – Semi Finals

A-League

Best Value

Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.96

Newcastle are great value at $1.96 in the Draw No Bet market. They’re the better side, had a weeks break, and are coming off one of the most impressive performances by any team all season, how they are not favourite blows my mind. I’m also keen on them Head to head if you want a bit more value.

 

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City

Friday 27 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

The first of the Semi Finals is on Friday night and it sees Newcastle hosting Melbourne City at Hunter Stadium. After finishing second on the ladder Newcastle got a well-earned break last week, not that they really needed it as Round 27 was an absolute walk in the park for them. In that match they travelled to Bluetongue Stadium to face Central Coast, not the hardest of tasks, but they had nothing to play for, so you could understand if they took it easy, but that is not what happened. In one of the great offensive performances in an A-League game, Newcastle managed to slot a massive 8 goals past the Central Coast keeper, unbelievable scenes. They also let a couple of goals in themselves, but that paled in comparison to what they did on the scoreboard. That win was the perfect springboard for them to play a great Semi Final here, they should have no excuses. Melbourne City earned their way into this Semi Final by convincingly beating Brisbane 2-0 last week in the Elimination Final. Their second goal came at the very end of the game, in injury time, but that doesn’t mean the win was every really in doubt. Not only did they dominate possession throughout the match, they kept Brisbane to 0 shots on target for the whole game, an incredible defensive performance. Melbourne City definitely have the ability to win this match-up, but with their inconsistency you just don’t know which team will turn up on the day. This looks to be the tighter of the two Semi Finals, but I’m giving a big push towards Newcastle, that 8-2 win is just not something you see every day. I think they’ve been clearly the second best team all season in the A-League, and deserve their spot in the Grand Final. $2.70 is a massive price for Newcastle too in my opinion. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that Melbourne City is the slightest of favourites, I had Newcastle marked an even money chance. $1.96 in the Draw No Bet market is obviously huge too, if you want the safer option.

 

Last 10 games:

Newcastle                   3

Melbourne City           6

Draw                            4

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Newcastle                   $1.99

Melbourne City           $4.08

Draw                            $3.96

 

Market Price:  

Newcastle                   $2.70 Bet365

Melbourne City           $2.65 Sportsbet

Draw                            $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Newcastle                   $1.49

Melbourne City           $3.05

 

Market Price:  

Newcastle                   $1.96 Unibet

Melbourne City           $1.85 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.65

Over                            $1.61

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Everywhere

Over                            $1.63 Ubet

 

Value:              Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.70

                        Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.96

 

 

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 28 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

The second Semi Final should be a cracker as it’s one of the biggest rivalries in the A-League, the Big Blue, between Sydney and Melbourne Victory. After an incredible regular season from Sydney, earning them another Premiers Plate, they got the week off last week to recuperate. Their last match coincidently was against the same opposition they face here. The final score was a far from impressive 1-0 win against Melbourne Victory. They struggled holding possession for long periods of time and didn’t get that many shots off, but hey, they still got the win and that’s what’s important. What is also important to take note of was that that match meant nothing to Sydney, they had already won the Premiership, so maybe they won the match without even trying?? Melbourne Victory played in the tougher of the two Elimination Finals last week when they hosted Adelaide. The match was scoreless going into halftime, but things opened right up after the break. Shortly into the second half they fell a goal behind, but thankfully for them they quickly levelled up, making the score 1-1. The score sat like that until the last minutes of the game, when Berisha scored one of the best goals you’ll ever see in an A-League match, an astonishing bicycle kick, giving them the win and sending them through to this Semi Final, which made it even more special. I’d love to see this be a tight match that goes to extra time, but I really think Sydney are going to step out, take the match by the horns, and really dominate Melbourne Victory. They’ve been so much more impressive than any other team again this year, there’s no reason why they won’t win here. To put things into perspective they finished the season with a goal difference of +42, the next closest team (Newcastle) was on +20, Melbourne Victory ended up with +6. I really wanted to be backing Sydney too, but I need just a touch more value to be diving in, $1.80 and they’re a bet in my book.

 

Last 10 games:  

Sydney                         6

Melbourne Victory      2

Draw                            2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Sydney                         $1.63

Melbourne Victory      $6.04

Draw                            $4.56

 

Market Price: 

Sydney                         $1.75 Everywhere

Melbourne Victory      $4.60 Unibet

Draw                            $4.00 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Sydney                         $1.27

Melbourne Victory      $4.71

 

Market Price:  

Sydney                         $1.33 Ladbrokes

Melbourne Victory      $3.55 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                          $2.67

Over                            $1.60

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Ubet

Over                            $1.67 Sportsbet

 

Value:              No value

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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