A-League 2017/18 – Round 2

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $3.20

I’m very keen on Perth on Sunday afternoon at over $3.00. I think the market has severely over-reacted to Newcastle’s demolition job of Central Coast last week. Perth did more than enough when away to Western Sydney, and this is a much easier task. If they were at home it would be an unload job, but even on the road I think they can get the chocolates.

Next Best Value

Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.25

This is an easy tip; actually pretty surprised Brisbane didn’t come up odds-on. They weren’t the best when on the road to Melbourne City last week, but back at Suncorp Stadium I expect them to have no trouble with Adelaide. Anything in the $1.80 and up range looks the goods to me.

Best Value:

1st:       Perth – Head to Head – $3.20

2nd:       Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.25

3rd      Western Sydney/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.75

4th:       Melbourne Victory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.65

 

Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United

Friday 13 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

This is a great game to start off the round, and one I’m very interested to have a play in. We’ve got Brisbane playing their first game at home for the season, up against Adelaide. Last week Brisbane lost to Melbourne City in somewhat of a predictable result. They ended up going down 2-0, which was a little disappointing, thought they’d fight harder, but they played good enough for me to think they’ve still got it, just a slightly off day. Adelaide managed to squeeze a draw out of their road match to New Zealand last week. They’ve got a long way to come from their poor season last year, but they are looking like they might be back going in the right direction. I have little doubt that Brisbane will get their first win of the 2017/18 season this weekend, a 2+ goal margin wouldn’t surprise me at all. All over Brisbane at $2.25, I priced them at $1.55, so think that price is just too good to be true, best of the weekend.

 

Last 5 games: 
Brisbane                      1

Adelaide                      3

Draw                            1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Brisbane                      $1.55

Adelaide                      $7.12

Draw                            $4.68

 

Market Price:
Brisbane                      $2.25 Everywhere

Adelaide                      $3.20 Unibet

Draw                            $3.70 Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Brisbane                      $1.22

Adelaide                      $5.60

 

Market Price: 
Brisbane                      $1.67 Bet365

Adelaide                      $2.33 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $2.17

Over                            $1.85

 

Market Price:  
Under                          $2.02 Unibet

Over                            $1.85 Palmer

 

Value:              Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.25

                        Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.67

 

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 14 October, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium

Western Sydney will be looking to make it two wins from two matches when they host Central Coast on Saturday. Western Sydney had little trouble taking care of Perth last week. They won their match 2-1, and Perth’s goal came late in the game from an own goal. It’s hard to see them not just as competitive this week against an easier opponent. Central Coast started off against Newcastle flying, dominating the first 10 minutes, after that point the match turned into a nightmare for them. It seemed likely they barely touched the ball, other than the keeper kicking it up out of the back of the net. They went down 5-1 at the final whistle; I hope this isn’t a sign of things to come. This is as straightforward as it gets, Western Sydney just wins. There’s no value in their price, but I’m happy to go with the Under 2.5 Goals market at $2.75.

 

Last 5 games: 
Western Sydney          3

Central Coast              1

Draw                            1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Western Sydney          $1.50

Central Coast              $7.60

Draw                            $5.00

 

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.41 Unibet

Central Coast              $7.50 Bet365, Palmerbet

Draw                            $5.00 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:     Western Sydney          $1.20

Central Coast              $6.08

 

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.14 Bet365

Central Coast              $6.00 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $1.95

Over                            $2.05

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.75 Unibet

Over                            $1.47 Palmerbet

 

Value:              Western Sydney/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.75

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Saturday 14 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium

Here’s the big match for the weekend, the Melbourne Derby, one of the most anticipated fixtures of the season. Melbourne Victory played really well last week against the reigning champions Sydney, and I think they had a few chances which they blew (namely from Berisha) that could of given them at least a point, if not the win. They’re up and about and look likely to have another strong team with a similar lineup to last year. Melbourne City won 2-0 at home to Brisbane last week, as you’d expect from them. Like their rivals they’re another team that looks set to have a pretty nice campaign ahead of them. While this should be a cracking match, I think Melbourne Victory will get the better of Melbourne City. Both Melbourne Victory at $2.30 and Over 2.5 Goals at $1.65 look really good plays to me.

 

Last 5 games: 
Melbourne Victory      2

Melbourne City           2

Draw                            1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory      $2.08

Melbourne City           $3.72

Draw                            $4.01

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory      $2.30 Everywhere

Melbourne City           $3.00 Bet365

Draw                            $3.70 Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Melbourne Victory      $1.56

Melbourne City           $2.79

 

Market Price:  
Melbourne Victory      $1.73 Sportsbet

Melbourne City           $2.18 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under                          $3.15

Over                            $1.46

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.33 Unibet

Over                            $1.65 Bet365, Palmerbet

 

Value:              Melbourne Victory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.65

                        Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.30

                        Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.73

 

 

Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory

Sunday 15 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Newcastle will be hoping for a similar performance to last week when they host Perth on Sunday. Last week they were up against Central Coast, and they made a real mess of them winning the game 5-1. At the very start of the game they took a little time to find their footing, but once they got going they were very impressive. An individual highlight was O’Donovan managing a first half hat trick, not something that you see every day. I don’t know if they’ll be able to replicate that performance, but fans will certainly be hoping.  Perth went down 2-1 to Western Sydney on Sunday. Their only goal was from an own goal too, so it wasn’t the greatest game they’ve ever played, but I’m expecting sharp improvement from them this week. This looks one of the tighter games of the round, but I’m happy to stick with Perth to bounce back after last week. Very happy with the price available about Perth too, $3.20 seems great, or even the $2.30 with money back for the draw.

 

Last 5 games: 
Newcastle                   1

Perth                            3

Draw                            1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Newcastle                   $3.46

Perth                            $2.26

Draw                            $3.72

 

Market Price:  
Newcastle                   $2.20 Everywhere

Perth                            $3.20 Sportsbet

Draw                            $3.75 Palmerbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Newcastle                   $2.53

Perth                            $1.65

 

Market Price:
Newcastle                   $1.64 Palmerbet

Perth                            $2.30 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.94

Over                            $1.52

 

Market Price:  
Under                          $2.55 Unibet

Over                            $1.57 Sportsbet

 

Value:              Perth – Head to Head – $3.20

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.30

 

 

Sydney FC v Wellington Phoenix

Sunday 15 October, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

The last game of Round 2 looks like it could be another whitewash with last years Champions Sydney hosting Wellington. Sydney is coming off a very strong win against Melbourne Victory away last Saturday, so they appear to have picked up where they finished last season. Although Melbourne Victory probably should of scored during the match, they didn’t, and Sydney ended up with a tight 1-0 win. Wellington was at home to Adelaide in Round 1 and was expected to win, but unfortunately they just couldn’t get the job done and only managed a draw. I think they will have a better season this year, but games like that are ones they need to start putting away. No surprises here either, I think Sydney should win without too much trouble, back at home is a big bonus for them as well. In saying all that, I couldn’t touch Sydney at $1.38 with a ten-foot pole. I have to have a little cheeky bet on Wellington in the Draw No Bet market at $7.00, that price has to be to big for a team of their ability.

 

Last 5 games: 
Sydney                         2

Wellington                  1

Draw                            2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Sydney                         $1.55

Wellington                  $7.22

Draw                            $4.63

 

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.38 William Hill

Wellington                  $8.50 Everywhere

Draw                            $5.00 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:     Sydney                         $1.21

Wellington                  $5.66

 

Market Price:
Sydney                         $1.11 Everywhere

Wellington                  $7.00 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $2.62

Over                            $1.62

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.54 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.55 Palmerbet, Unibet

 

Value:              Wellington – Draw No Bet – $7.00

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $8.50

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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