Best Value
Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.25
After a disappointing effort last week by Brisbane I have little doubt they’ll bounce back with a dominant performance this round. They’re at home to Newcastle, which is one of the easier games on the calendar, so I’m surprised that we’re currently getting as much as $2.25 about them, should be well into odds-on for mine.
Next Best Value
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.95
Another team who I think can bounce back after a Round 2 loss is Melbourne Victory. They were competitive in the Melbourne Derby and this match-up against Adelaide looks a lot easier. They’re now sitting on 0 and 2, so a win is a must for them.
Best Value:
1st: Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.25
2nd: Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.95
3rd: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.70
4th: Sydney – Head to Head – $1.85
Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory
Friday 20 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Adelaide Oval
Still one of the biggest rivalries in the A-League, Adelaide and Melbourne Victory go head to head in a match that the bookies are finding it difficult to split. Last Friday Adelaide travelled to Brisbane and went into the match as a big underdog. After they went down 1-0 in the first ten minutes there long price looked justified, but somehow, I still don’t know how, they scored two goals in the last five minutes to steal the win from Brisbane. That’s a big scalp and should give them some confidence going forward. Melbourne Victory had the spotlight on them after they lost the opening match to Sydney, and last week they had the Melbourne Derby, which they were expected to win. Once again they couldn’t manage a point as Melbourne City got the better of them, winning 2-1. Melbourne Victory have been a little slow to kick the season off, but this looks an ideal match for them to get their first win of the 2017/18 season. Shocked that the bookies have Adelaide as the slightest of favourites, I had the match heavily in Melbourne Victory’s favour, and the $1.95 money back for the draw looks too good to be true.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $3.78
Melbourne Victory $2.09
Draw $3.89
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.63 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $2.65 TopBetta
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.81
Melbourne Victory $1.55
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.90 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $1.95 William Hill, Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.42
Over $1.70
Market Price:
Under $1.98 Unibet
Over $1.85 Bet365, Palmerbet
Value: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.65
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.95
Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 21 October, 5:35m (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Melbourne City host Wellington on Saturday afternoon in the first of a few very one-sided matches. Last week Melbourne City took care of their across town rivals Melbourne Victory with what looked to be relative ease. They won 2-1, and while they didn’t dominate the possession, they kept Melbourne Victory to only a couple of shots on target for the whole match. They’re now top of the table, and probably enjoying it up there. Wellington played really well last week, although they lost, they didn’t lose any fans going down 3-2 to last years champions Sydney, it was away too. They still haven’t got a win this season, and this doesn’t look much easier, but they are showing the signs you’d like to see going forward. There should be no excuses here for Melbourne City, hard seeing them not taking the three points here and holding their place at the top of the ladder. After looking through the bookmakers Melbourne City has come up extremely short, I didn’t see that coming. After last week’s performance I have to give Wellington a little hope at the $6.00, or at least in the Draw No Bet market.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 4
Wellington 1
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.89
Wellington $4.50
Draw $4.04
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.50 Everywhere
Wellington $6.00 Everywhere
Draw $4.60 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.42
Wellington $3.39
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.20 William Hill
Wellington $4.70 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.76
Over $1.36
Market Price:
Under $2.50 Unibet
Over $1.56 Palmerbet
Value: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.70
Wellington – Head to Head – $6.00
Melbourne City/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.56
Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 21 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium
As we come to expect most weeks, the rounds big blockbuster fixture comes on Saturday night, and it’s the Sydney Derby. Sydney is coming off another win last week, this time it was against Wellington. I must say it wasn’t as easy as I expected it to be, but after a hard fought battle the came away with a 3-2 victory. They didn’t really dominate any of the main stats, so they’d want to improve if there is to be as good as they were last season, but it’s hard to knock winning form. Western Sydney shocked me last week by only getting a draw against Central Coast when at home. They are a better team than that as shown by their week 1 win over Perth. To their credit they did trail Central Coast on two separate occasions, and fought back each time, but only enough to secure one point. Sydney won’t have any trouble taking care of Western Sydney; they haven’t been playing great football, but are still 2 and 0. I feel like I’m robbing the bookies at $1.85 for Sydney, but I’ll take that any day of the week.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Western Sydney 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.51
Western Sydney $7.08
Draw $5.13
Market Price:
Sydney $1.85 William Hill, TopBetta
Western Sydney $4.33 Palmerbet
Draw $3.80 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.21
Western Sydney $5.70
Market Price:
Sydney $1.36 Bet365, William Hill
Western Sydney $3.25 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.09
Over $1.91
Market Price:
Under $2.06 Unibet
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value: Sydney – Head to Head – $1.85
Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.36
Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets
Sunday 22 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
I reckon we get the best look of the round in this match between Brisbane and Newcastle on Sunday arvo. Brisbane is coming off a disappointing loss to Adelaide last week after leading early in the match. They scored not long after kick-off, and then seemed to switch off for most of the match. With only a couple minutes left of regular time they would of thought they were home, but it wasn’t to be. Adelaide nabbed a late goal, then minutes later in injury time they somehow scored another, leaving Brisbane empty handed from a match they should of won. Newcastle hosted Perth last week and did enough in their 2-2 draw. After only two games in Newcastle has netted seven goals, so they don’t look to be having any issues up front, but I don’t know how strong their defense will be against a top side. Very keen on Brisbane here, think they should definitely be winning this if they have any thoughts of silverware this season. The $2.25 around for them looks the goods, I rated them as short as $1.71.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.71
Newcastle $5.42
Draw $4.34
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.25 Everywhere
Newcastle $3.10 William Hill
Draw $3.75 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.32
Newcastle $4.17
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.67 Sportsbet
Newcastle $2.30 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.02
Over $1.49
Market Price:
Under $2.35 William Hill, Unibet
Over $1.62 Palmerbet
Value: Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.25
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.67
Perth Glory v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 22 October, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
Final game of Round 3 looks another one-sided affair; this time it’s Perth playing their first home game of the season up against Central Coast. Perth travelled to Newcastle last week and could only manage a draw. I think they’re the far superior side of the two, but for seasons now they have really struggled on the road, but they’re a completely different team when playing at NIB Stadium. Central Coast finished up with a draw last week too, there’s being against Western Sydney away, which is quite impressive, I didn’t think they had it in them. They’re still yet to win a game this season, but that was a lot better than their 5-1 drumming they received week before. Perth just wins. I’ve rated them $1.51, but I feel like they’re a “better than bank interest” job here. Struggling to see how they get beat, but I guess nothing is a 100% lock.
Last 5 games:
Perth 2
Central Coast 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.51
Central Coast $7.96
Draw $4.71
Market Price:
Perth $1.67 Sportsbet
Central Coast $5.00 Bet365, TopBetta
Draw $4.50 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.19
Central Coast $6.27
Market Price:
Perth $1.30 William Hill
Central Coast $3.70 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.46
Over $1.41
Market Price:
Under $2.95 Unibet
Over $1.45 Palmerbet
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $1.67
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.30
