A-League 2017/18 – Round 4

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.68

I don’t think you can go wrong with the $1.68 about Wellington with money back if the game ends in a draw. Brisbane have been very underwhelming so far this season, and are not showing me anything to suggest that it’s going to change this week. Confident bet on Wellington.

Next Best Value

Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.75

So far Melbourne City has been the best team in the league this season, so their matchup against Adelaide looks like easy money to me. I rated them $2.43, and we can currently get $0.30 better than that.

 

1st:       Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.68

2nd:       Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.75

3rd:       Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.70

4th:       Wellington/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

 

Sydney FC v Perth Glory

Friday 27 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

The A-League action gets under way on Friday night with Sydney hosting Perth at the Sydney Football Stadium. Sydney had their local Derby last week but had to settle for a draw in a match they were probably expecting to win. Those thoughts all changed when they found themselves 2-0 down after half an hour had past. They fought their way back to level things up, but a third goal eluded them, leaving them with just the one point from the match. As expected Perth got the job done at home to Central Coast last week. This was an easy kill for them, but they had to make sure they put them away, before the season starts to get away from them. I’ve said it time and time again, Perth is a home side, as soon as they hit the road it’s like a different team lines up, and that being the case I give the nod easily to Sydney here. When it comes to betting though there isn’t much that takes my fancy, think the markets are spot on here, onto Saturday.

 

Last 5 games:
Sydney                         5

Perth                           0

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Sydney                         $1.53

Perth                           $7.30

Draw                           $4.76

 

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.50 Everywhere

Perth                           $6.10 Unibet

Draw                           $4.50 Sportsbet, TopBetta

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Sydney                         $1.21

Perth                           $5.76

 

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.20 William Hill

Perth                           $4.90 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.60

Over                            $1.62

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.55 Unibet

Over                            $1.56 Palmerbet

 

Value:             No value

 

           

Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 28 October, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

On Saturday afternoon two teams face off that are both yet to taste victory in this 2017/18 season, Wellington and Brisbane. Last Saturday Wellington was on the road to Melbourne City, so I didn’t think they’d get much out of the game, but they surprisingly played pretty well keeping the scores 0-0 as the hour mark ticked by. They couldn’t hold on forever though, and Melbourne City broke through soon after. Losing 1-0 to the topside so far isn’t too bad, so they can improve on that. Brisbane was extremely disappointing last week. They were playing Newcastle at home, a fixture you’d usually class as a lock for them, but it wasn’t to be. They couldn’t match it with Newcastle around the park, and finished up losing 2-1. Think Wellington should be able to get the better of Brisbane in this one and more than happy to take the $2.25 available about them. The $1.64 for Over 2.5 Goals looks good too.

 

Last 5 games: 
Wellington                  1

Brisbane                      3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $2.00

Brisbane                      $4.14

Draw                           $3.88

 

Market Price: 
Wellington                  $2.25 William Hill, Sportsbet

Brisbane                      $3.29 Bet365

Draw                           $3.65 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $1.48

Brisbane                      $3.07

 

Market Price:
Wellington                  $1.68 Sportsbet

Brisbane                      $2.30 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $3.11

Over                            $1.47

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.27 Palmerbet

Over                            $1.64 Palmerbet, Unibet

 

Value:             Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.68

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $2.25

                        Wellington/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

 

 

Adelaide United v Melbourne City

Saturday 28 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Saturday produces yet another great match for us this week as Adelaide host the league leaders Melbourne City. Adelaide played Melbourne Victory last week in a tough little match after falling 1-0 behind early in the game, they managed to fight back and hit the lead halfway through the second half. Their defense couldn’t holdout though, letting in a late equaliser meaning they had to share the points with Melbourne Victory. Melbourne City continued on their merry way with another win. It took them quite a while to find the back of the net, but McCormack did just that giving them their 1-0 win. I have little doubt Melbourne City will have any trouble dealing with Adelaide, even if they are on the road. There’s definitely enough room to squeeze some value out of Melbourne City at the current price too, wouldn’t want much shorter than the $2.75, but at that it is a bet.

 

Last 5 games: 
Adelaide                      3

Melbourne City           2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Adelaide                      $3.10

Melbourne City           $2.43

Draw                           $3.76

 

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $2.50 William Hill

Melbourne City           $2.75 Palmerbet, TopBetta

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Adelaide                      $2.28

Melbourne City           $1.78

 

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $1.81 Unibet

Melbourne City           $2.01 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.13

Over                            $1.89

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.28 Sportsbet, Unibet

Over                            $1.70 Bet365

 

Value:             Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.75

                        Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.01

 

 

Newcastle Jets v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 29 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Newcastle has gotten off to a flyer this season and will endeavor to continue their cracking form when they host Western Sydney on Sunday. Last week Newcastle proved that maybe they could be the real deal this season when they travelled to Brisbane, and gave them a beating on their home turf. They won the match 2-1, and the goal they conceded was actually an own goal, so they really did dominate the match. That win took them to two wins and a draw from the first three matches, which would have to be one of their best starts to a season. Western Sydney went into the Sydney Derby as the underdog, but definitely held their own throughout the match. They’re probably a little disappointed as they managed to get 2-0 up at one stage, but the raining premiers were having none of that and tied the match up 2-2. That’s where the scoring ended, which is a decent result for Western Sydney in my opinion. Tough game but I’m giving the edge to Western Sydney, think the short road trip shouldn’t be too much for them to overcome. Another game where I’m happy to take the current price about them too ($2.70) but I wouldn’t want it to tighten up much more as the value there is slim.

 

Last 5 games: 
Newcastle                   0

Western Sydney          4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Newcastle                   $3.26

Western Sydney          $2.38

Draw                           $3.66

 

Market Price:
Newcastle                   $2.60 Everywhere

Western Sydney          $2.70 Sportsbet

Draw                           $3.60 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  
Newcastle                   $2.37

Western Sydney          $1.73

 

Market Price:
Newcastle                   $1.90 William Hill

Western Sydney          $1.95 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $2.40

Over                            $1.71

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.23 Palmerbet

Over                            $1.71 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.70

                        Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.95

 

 

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 29 October, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

The final match of the weekend is a fascinating fixture between Central Coast and Melbourne Victory as both teams strive for their first three points of the season. Central Coast was decent last week. They were on the road to Perth, and I gave them zero hope to be honest, but with about twenty minutes left on the clock they were up 1-0. Perth showed their ability though and ended up sneaking two goals in the latter part of the match to steal the win away from them. Melbourne Victory travelled to Adelaide last week and went into the match desperate to get their season underway, but they had to settle for draw as the game finished 2-2. It’s only early days, but Melbourne Victory are already nearly three games off the top of the table, they won’t want to drop anymore easy points that they should be getting, and this looks like one of those occasions. If the real Melbourne Victory turns up to Bluetongue Stadium, this should be a walk in the park for them; they’ve got the superior side on paper, and amazing goal scoring ability when on song. $2.00 is almost enough for me to dive into Melbourne Victory, but I’m greedy, and want a little better, will be staying out unless the drift.

 

Last 5 games: 
Central Coast              0

Melbourne Victory      4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Central Coast              $4.41

Melbourne Victory      $1.93

Draw                           $3.92

 

Market Price:
Central Coast              $3.60 Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $2.00 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.80 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Central Coast              $3.28

Melbourne Victory      $1.44

 

Market Price: 
Central Coast              $2.70 Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $1.51 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $3.11

Over                            $1.47

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.38 Unibet

Over                            $1.60 Bet365, Palmerbet

 

Value:             No value

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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