A-League 2017/18 – Round 6

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.20

I can’t believe we’re getting better than even money for Melbourne City, they’re arguably (along with Sydney) the best team in the competition, and they’re at home, how do they get beat. For me this is a “chips in” job.

Next Best Value

Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

There should be no issues with this game going over 2.5 goals. Both teams defenses have a lot to be desired, and can see their being goals on both sides of the scoreboard in this one. The price is short, but it’s justified, I rated the Overs $1.29, so that says enough.

 

1st      Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.20

2nd:       Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

3rd:       Adelaide/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

4th:       Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.95

 

Central Coast Mariners v Sydney FC

Friday 10 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Round 6 kicks-0ff Friday night with what looks to be a very one-sided affair between Central Coast and Sydney. Last week Central Coast held their own when they travelled north to take on Brisbane. I thought it would be a tough task for them, but they stayed competitive for the full 90 minutes. Unfortunately their lack of strike power up front meant that they failed to score a goal the whole game, but they kept Brisbane scoreless too so they could take one point away from the match. It was a huge game from Sydney last Friday. They were playing the previously unbeaten Melbourne City, on the road, and they still came away with the win. It was a tight game throughout, but Wilkshire’s goal in the second half was enough to separate the sides, giving Sydney the 1-0 win. Although Central Coast have been playing well, they’re yet to get a win on the board, whereas Sydney have been dominant through the first five rounds having four wins and a draw. Sydney should be far too good and continue to hold the top place on the table. At $1.62 Sydney looks a little bit of value, not enough to make it a selection though, I would need at least $1.70 to step in. At this stage I’ll sit out.

 

Last 5 games:
Central Coast              0

Sydney                         4

Draw                            1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Central Coast              $7.31

Sydney                         $1.52

Draw                            $4.85

 

Market Price:
Central Coast              $5.50 Everywhere

Sydney                         $1.62 Sportsbet

Draw                            $4.20 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Central Coast              $5.80

Sydney                         $1.21

 

Market Price:
Central Coast              $4.20 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.29 Ladbrokes

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.74

Over                            $1.58

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.25 Ladbrokes

Over                            $1.67 Unibet

 

Value:              No value

 

Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 11 November, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

By this stage the Spring Carnival will be just about wrapped out, so A-League will be front and center on a lot of sports enthusiasts minds, unfortunately this isn’t the greatest match for it, but let’s still try and find the winner. Adelaide is coming off an expected loss to Perth when playing over at NIB Stadium. Perth is a very hard team to take on when they’re at home, so the fact that Adelaide only went down 1-0 is probably not all that bad. They fired off a hell of a lot of shots (18) throughout the match too, but they were mostly all wild attempts, and only one on target. I’m really starting to like the way Newcastle is playing, they posted another win last week, this time was against a relatively easy opponent in Wellington, but they well and truly put them to the sword winning 3-0. Other than Sydney, Newcastle is the only team to remain unbeaten through the first five rounds. Tough game, Adelaide really should be able to notch up their second win for the season here, but I want to keep Newcastle very safe. The standard markets looks pretty spot on, but more than happy to be on the Over 2.5 goals here.

 

Last 5 games:
Adelaide                      3

Newcastle                   1

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Adelaide                      $2.43

Newcastle                   $3.20

Draw                           $3.62

 

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $2.30 Everywhere

Newcastle                   $3.00 Bet365, Palmerbet

Draw                           $4.00 Bet365, Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Adelaide                      $1.76

Newcastle                   $2.32

 

Market Price:
Adelaide                      $1.70 Ladbrokes

Newcastle                   $2.20 Bet365. William Hill

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $3.17

Over                            $1.46

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.28 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.68 Palmerbet, Crownbet

 

Value:             Adelaide/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

 

 

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 11 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium

 

I think it’s D-Day for Melbourne Victory on Saturday night, they’re playing at home to Brisbane, if they can’t win this game, I’m prepared to say that they CAN’T win the premiership/championship. Melbourne Victory were lack-luster again last week in their 1-1 draw with Western Sydney. They were playing at home, so really expected to take the chocolates in that one. They really struggled to keep possession or get any good looks, to be honest they were probably lucky to get away with a draw. Brisbane is already written off for me, coming up with a 0-0 draw against Central Coast, at home, is just not good enough to make them contenders. Who would of thought through the first five rounds that neither Melbourne Victory or Brisbane would have landed their first win. Must must must win game for Melbourne Victory here, I have to tip them because they’ll be so desperate for the three points.

 

Last 5 games: 
Melbourne Victory      3

Brisbane                      1

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Melbourne Victory      $1.81

Brisbane                      $5.12

Draw                           $3.98

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory      $1.80 Sportsbet

Brisbane                      $4.50 Everywhere

Draw                           $4.00 Bet365, Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory      $1.35

Brisbane                      $3.83

 

Market Price:
Melbourne Victory      $1.35 William Hill

Brisbane                      $3.50 bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $2.72

Over                            $1.58

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.20 Unibet

Over                            $1.70 Bet365, Palmerbet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory

Sunday 12 November, 2:30pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

This Sunday game won’t grab too many headlines as it’s between Wellington and Perth, but I think it should be a nice close affair. Wellington is yet another team that is looking first that first elusive win of the 2017/18 season. Their effort (if you can call it that) last week was well below par. Granted Newcastle is in form, but they’re not a top-rated team, and they gave them a 3-0 drumming. This Wellington side plays ok at times, but then other times they just don’t turn up, it’s hard to know what to make of them. Perth has to make the dreaded road trip to New Zealand this week, which for them is a massive commute. They’re already a rubbish road team, and this extra travel will not help them one bit. I can’t take anything away from their win against Adelaide last week, it was a tight 1-0 victory, but that’s all you need. With Perth having to travel so far this fixture I have to be with Wellington, if it was on neutral turf it would be a different story, but it’s not. Overs and Wellington the go here, surprised we’re getting the price we are for Wellington considering Perth is a known poor travelling team.

 

Last 5 games: 
Wellington                  0

Perth                           4

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Wellington                  $2.37

Perth                           $3.17

Draw                           $3.82

 

Market Price:
Wellington                  $2.63 Unibet

Perth                           $2.60 Bet365

Draw                           $3.50 TopBetta, Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Wellington                  $1.75

Perth                           $2.34

 

Market Price:
Wellington                  $1.95 William Hill

Perth                           $1.89 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $4.49

Over                            $1.29

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.50 William Hill

Over                            $1.57 Bet365

 

Value:             Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

                        Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.95

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $2.37

 

 

Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 12 November, 7:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Last game of the week will be very one-sided for mine. Melbourne City host Western Sydney, and the home side will be very keen to bounce back in the best way possible way after losing their first match of the season last week. It’s hard to be too disappointed with that loss, it was only 1-0, and against Sydney who most consider the best team in the league (I know I do). Back to back home games is a big advantage too. Western Sydney is back down in Victoria again this week after playing Melbourne Victory away last round. They ended up coming away with a 1-1 draw form the match, but I almost think they were a little unlucky. They dominated all the important stats, but couldn’t take advantage of it. Melbourne City just win this in my opinion, playing two home games in a row compared to two away games in a row for Western Sydney makes a huge difference. This is the best bet of the round, can’t believe the price of Melbourne City, all-in for me.

Last 5 games: 
Melbourne City           2

Western Sydney          2

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Melbourne City           $1.72

Western Sydney          $5.34

Draw                           $4.33

 

Market Price:
Melbourne City           $2.20 Everywhere

Western Sydney          $2.75 Sportsbet

Draw                           $3.50 TopBetta, Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Melbourne City           $1.32

Western Sydney          $4.10

 

Market Price: 
Melbourne City           $1.61 Crownbet

Western Sydney          $2.36 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.32

Over                            $1.76

 

Market Price:
Under                          $2.05 William Hill, Palmerbet

Over                            $1.80 Bet365, Unibet

 

Value:             Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.20

                        Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.61

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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