A-League 2017/18 – Round 7

Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $2.50

I can’t believe Perth is $2.50 here. They have a great record at home, and Melbourne Victory still hasn’t even got their first win of the season. This should be a painless way to finish the round off.

Next Best Value

Brisbane/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85

In what looked a tough game on paper, thankfully it looks like they’ve gone up the wrong price in the totals market. This game is certain to be free-flowing, and Over 2.5 Goals looks extremely likely, was expecting the price to come up a lot shorter.

 

Best Value:

1st:       Perth – Head to Head – $2.50

2nd:       Brisbane/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85

3rd:       Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $1.90

4th:       Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.20

 

Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United

Thursday 16 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Round 7 gets underway early this week on Thursday night with a match between two teams on one win a piece, Central Coast, and Adelaide. Firstly, we have Central Coast who somehow, I still don’t know how, managed to get their first win of the season, against Sydney of all teams, last week. They were playing at home, but went into the game as a massive underdog, understandable. To make things even more impressive, they held onto their 2-0 lead until the final siren even after going down to ten men for the last ten minutes of the match. Adelaide’s form last week wasn’t as good, they hosted Newcastle in a match they should have been winning but could only muster a 2-1 loss. Newcastle has been in great form, but those fixtures at home need to be wins if you want to be playing finals. They even scored first to take an early lead but that wasn’t enough. I’m on the Central Coast bandwagon here, I think they can continue on their merry way and get another win, this time against a much easier opponent. They’re a great price in my opinion, take the $1.90 Draw No Bet if you want a safer option.

 

Last 5 games:
Central Coast              2

Adelaide                      3

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Central Coast              $2.15

Adelaide                      $3.76

Draw                           $3.73

 

Market Price: 
Central Coast              $2.60 Sportsbet

Adelaide                      $2.70 Bet365

Draw                           $3.55 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Central Coast              $1.57

Adelaide                      $2.75

 

Market Price: 
Central Coast              $1.90 William Hill

Adelaide                      $1.96 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.34

Over                            $1.75

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.25 Unibet

Over                            $1.66 Palmerbet

 

Value:             Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $1.90

                        Central Coast – Head to Head – $2.60

 

           

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City

Friday 17 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Friday night see’s Brisbane still trying to get their first win of the season when they host Melbourne City who have been slightly out of form the last couple of rounds, but I’m sure are ready to bounce back. Last week Brisbane had a hard-fought match against Melbourne Victory down at Etihad Stadium. The score sat at 0-0 for a long time, but with about 15 minutes on the clock Melbourne Victory broke through courtesy of Berisha. At that stage, Brisbane looked like going home empty handed but to their credit they didn’t drop their heads, they came back and Holman leveled it up for them. The game finished at 1-1 and the teams split the points, which was a good result for Brisbane. Melbourne City disappointed me last week when they only came away with a draw from their home fixture against Western Sydney. They were one of the more fancied chances of the week, so a 1-1 result didn’t really cut it. They’re still a really strong team, and are just holding onto second position on the ladder. A tight contest this one, but I’m going the way of Melbourne City, they should have just a bit too much zip for Brisbane. Over 2.5 Goals looks the best value in the match though with the Head to Head prices pretty much spot on.

 

Last 5 games: 
Brisbane                      1

Melbourne City           2

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Brisbane                      $3.00

Melbourne City           $2.58

Draw                           $3.58

 

Market Price:
Brisbane                      $3.20 Palmerbet

Melbourne City           $2.25 Everywhere

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  
Brisbane                      $2.16

Melbourne City           $1.86

 

Market Price: 
Brisbane                      $2.25 William Hill

Melbourne City           $1.66 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $3.26

Over                            $1.44

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.00 William Hill, Unibet

Over                            $1.85 Bet365, Palmerbet

 

Value:             Brisbane/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85

 

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 18 November, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium

Western Sydney look likely to notch up their second win of the season on Saturday afternoon when they host Wellington at Spotless Stadium. From Western Sydney’s perspective, their 1-1 draw with Melbourne City down in Victoria last week was a great result, and as good as they could have hoped for. They played a good match too, dominating the possession throughout the 90 minutes. They are having a bit of trouble finishing off in the final third, but as the games go on that should change quickly. Wellington is another team who got their season underway in a massive way last week. They were hosting Perth and absolutely blew them out of the water, beating them 5-2. If they bring another performance like that they will be competitive again, but the fact they must make the road trip to Australia always makes it that much harder for Wellington. All things being fare Western Sydney should get the job done here for me. The value though appears to be with the visitors, at around $4.20 with the “draw insurance”, you should get a good run for your money.

 

Last 5 games:
Western Sydney          3

Wellington                  2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Western Sydney          $1.86

Wellington                  $4.56

Draw                           $4.11

 

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.65 TopBetta, Unibet

Wellington                  $5.50 William Hill

Draw                           $4.20 Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.41

Wellington                  $3.45

 

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.26 Palmerbet

Wellington                  $4.20 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under                          $2.39

Over                            $1.72

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.38 Unibet

Over                            $1.59 Palmerbet

 

Value:             Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.20

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $5.50

 

 

Sydney FC v Newcastle jets

Saturday 17 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

Sydney will be bouncing back to their top form in this I think. Even though they were beaten 2-0 last week, they’re still near the top of the table, and we know the ability is there. They were playing Central Coast on the road, so I really don’t know how they went down 2-0, but it’s just one of those things. They would have got a fair talking to from the manager and they’ll come out guns blazing in this. Newcastle, who knows what is going on here, their form has been incredible, and their hard work has paid off as they’re now on the top of the table. They have had a relatively easy draw thus far, and this will be clearly their biggest task, but if they can be competitive here then we know they’re the real deal this season. Even though Newcastle is on the top of the table, I can’t see any result here other than a Sydney win. They’ll be fuming after last week, and unfortunately Newcastle will be in the firing line. The price is a little short for me to be diving in though, so this is a sit out and watch for me.

 

Last 5 games:
Sydney                         5

Newcastle                   0

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Sydney                         $1.56

Newcastle                   $7.01

Draw                           $4.60

 

Market Price:
Sydney                         $1.67 Sportsbet

Newcastle                   $5.40 Unibet

Draw                           $4.10 Unibet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Sydney                         $1.22

Newcastle                   $5.49

 

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.22 Everywhere

Newcastle                   $4.30 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.42

Over                            $1.70

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.24 Sportsbet

Over                            $1.70 Bet365

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 19 November, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

Final game of Round 7 is over west at NIB Stadium with Perth and Melbourne Victory going head to head. Perth played as they always do on the road last week, poorly. I don’t take anything away when they play bad in New Zealand, that is one heck of a road trip, something none of the Eastern state teams have to deal with. Wellington appeared to hit a rich vein of form that night as they banged five goals in against them. Perth managed a couple themselves but that left the score line at 5-2. They’ll love being back at home and should show their true ability this week. Melbourne Victory had yet another draw, this time against Brisbane, at home, which is a massive let down for them and their fans. I can’t remember a time when they had played through six rounds of football and still not managed a win. While they can turn their season around to make finals, that draw is enough for me to say that they won’t be a title contender this season, even at this early stage. Back at home I think Perth are clearly the team to beat, Melbourne Victory have struggled in easier games on their home pitch, they’ll struggle here. Perth’s price is an absolute luxury, VERY keen, best value of the round.

 

Last 5 games: 
Perth                           2

Melbourne Victory      1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Perth                           $1.88

Melbourne Victory      $4.62

Draw                           $3.98

 

Market Price: 
Perth                           $2.50 William Hill

Melbourne Victory      $2.80 TopBetta

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Perth                           $1.41

Melbourne Victory      $3.46

 

Market Price: 
Perth                           $1.78 Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $2.05 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under                          $3.17

Over                            $1.46

 

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.35 Everywhere

Over                            $1.63 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Perth – Head to Head – $2.50

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.78

                        Perth/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.63

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

Leave a Reply