So the AFL and NRL finished up last weekend, now the real football in Australia starts, the round ball kind!
For all those who haven’t seen my A-League previews over the last few years I’ll give you a quick run down. I’m basically a mad football (soccer) fan; have been since I was little. All started off with my beloved Manchester United, I was a big EPL fan, cause to be honest, Australian football wasn’t all that great 15 years ago. But then 10 years ago something happened that changed this nation for the better, the A-League was born.
Each week I’ll provide a preview of each game and which way I see the result going. I’ll then add in the best odds available for each team and the betting options I’m looking at, followed by my rated prices, then highlight where I think the best value in the match is.
Feel free to pass on any feedback that you have, I’m always looking for ways that I can improve the write-ups.
Hopefully you enjoy the weekly read and feel free to share it via a RT if you like, it’s always appreciated. Let’s make this a winning 2016/17 A-League season.
@AL_TheProfits
Round 1
Best Value:
1st: Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.73.
2nd: Perth/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
3rd: Brisbane/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
4th: Western Sydney/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory
Friday 7 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
The 2016/17 season starts off with what looks like a cracker of a match-up with two of the biggest clubs facing off. It’s Melbourne Victory heading up north to take on Brisbane. You don’t get that much more of a tougher first game than Melbourne Victory has here though. Brisbane are always incredibly competitive at home and they’ll be ready to start the season off with a bang. They’ve got a similar line-up to last year, and if they play up to their potential they should be winning this. While Melbourne Victory have two huge new recruits in Rojas and Troisi, i think it might take a little longer for that forward line-up to meld together in a way that they’d be hoping. I think Brisbane should be a short priced favourite and was pretty surprised when I seen that as much as $2.40 is available about them. To me, it looks like some of the best value going around this week.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Melbourne Victory 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.53
Melbourne Victory $7.30
Draw $4.76
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.40 Sportsbet, Palmerbet
Melbourne Victory $2.90 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.50 Bet365, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.21
Melbourne Victory $5.76
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.73 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $2.12 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.24
Over $1.45
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Sportsbet
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value:
Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.40.
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.73.
Brisbane/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City
Saturday 8 October, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
This looks the tightest match of the round. Melbourne City are definitely the stronger side, but travelling to New Zealand to take on Wellington in their opening game isn’t ideal. I like the inclusions of Barbarouses and Finkler to the Wellington line-up, but like Melbourne Victory, it’s hard to see a newly restructured forward line clicking from the word go. Melbourne City had one of the strongest line-ups going around last season, and while they have lost their key playmaker in Mooy, the inclusion of Australia’s favourite son, Cahill, will surely make up for that, and more. With a couple more interesting new recruits from the UK, I think this will be a side to be recon with. Melbourne City should get their chance to start the season off with a win, but their price doesn’t appear to be all that much value. I much prefer the Over 2.5 goals market, $1.62 for what looks a near moral seems good enough to me.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Melbourne City 4
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $3.46
Melbourne City $2.24
Draw $3.78
Market Price:
Wellington $3.25 Bet365
Melbourne City $2.20 Sportsbet, William Hill
Draw $3.70 Bet365, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.54
Melbourne City $1.65
Market Price:
Wellington $2.32 Unibet
Melbourne City $1.66 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.00
Over $1.33
Market Price:
Under $2.32 Unibet
Over $1.62 Bet365
Value:
Wellington/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.62.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC
Saturday 8 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium
How’s this for the first Saturday night of football for the season, a Sydney Derby, i can’t think of a better way to spend the night than watching this one. This has the potential to be a tight match, as these derby’s often are, but with Western Sydney’s new starting 11, they really should be getting the job done here. Sydney were very lacklustre last season, and they haven’t really done anything in the offseason to tell me that is going to be any different this year. Ibini could be the surprise packet for them, but he’ll need to be to keep the Sky Blues in this one. I definitely think Western Sydney is backable at their current mark, but the Over 2.5 Goals looks the safest way to go in this one for me, I’m pretty shocked that “Under” is the favourite in this market, definitely think it should be the other way around.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 0
Sydney 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.10
Sydney $3.78
Draw $3.86
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.55 Unibet
Sydney $2.90 Sportsbet
Draw $3.40 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.56
Sydney $2.80
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.83 Unibet
Sydney $2.00 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.83
Over $1.55
Market Price:
Under $1.91 Sportsbet
Over $1.95 Bet365
Value:
Western Sydney/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.55.
Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.83.
Perth Glory v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 8 October, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
This game has the potential to get really messy. I’m rating Perth as one of the best teams this season, especially at home, and they’re kicking off their campaign against the worst team in the competition, Central Coast. I really hope Central Coast can turn it around from last season, but I just don’t see it happening. They’ve only recruited A-League players, and none of them really knock your socks off. They’ll be up against it all season, but this could be one of their toughest tests. Perth just win in my option, and even at the skinny quote of $1.57, I still think they’re worth a bet. One of the best bets of the week is in this match though, the Over 2.5 Goals. I don’t think Perth will have trouble covering 3+ themselves, and if Central Coast can add to the goal tally, that will just be a bonus.
Last 5 games:
Perth 3
Central Coast 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.41
Central Coast $9.69
Draw $5.30
Market Price:
Perth $1.57 Bet365
Central Coast $6.00 Everywhere
Draw $4.20 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.15
Central Coast $7.86
Market Price:
Perth $1.22 Bet365, William Hill
Central Coast $4.65 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $5.01
Over $1.25
Market Price:
Under $2.26 Sportsbet
Over $1.71 Unibet
Value:
Perth/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
Perth – Head to Head – $1.57.
Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United
Sunday 9 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
We round week 1 out with last years premiers Adelaide, taking on Newcastle. Adelaide have hardly changed their team (why would you), the only real loss looks to be Djite, but I think they can be just as competitive without him. The only trouble for them could be a road trip first up, but they are more than equiped to deal with that. While Newcastle was disappointing last season, they’re sure to be a different team this year. They’ve brought in players from Croatia, Malaysia and Finland, so it will be intriguing how they all go playing together. I’d be surprised if Adelaide didn’t kick-off the season with a win here, it won’t be a walk in the park, but they’d be disappointed leaving without all three points. Alas the market looks bang on for this match, and there’s no real value to be had. Have to give this one a pass, hopefully we’ve already got the money after the first 4 matches.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 0
Adelaide 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $4.91
Adelaide $1.84
Draw $3.95
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.80 Bet365
Adelaide $2.00 Everywhere
Draw $3.65 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $3.66
Adelaide $1.38
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.75 William Hill, Unibet
Adelaide $1.46 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.25
Over $1.80
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Sportsbet, William Hill
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value:
No value.
