The wait is over, A League is back for it’s 9th season. Every year the league is growing with popularity and in credibility, as seen by players of the ilk of Rogic and Rojas being picked up by top European clubs over the past 12 months.
In sports it’s always advisable to go easy on the punting in the first few rounds of a new season and A League is no different. If anything A League is more volatile than most sports with the amount of trades most teams have made over the break. In saying that, there are still 5 games every week, and there’s a result to be found in each of them.
Each week I’ll try and give a brief outline of each match, any stats of significance, the results of the teams last 5 encounters, how I’ve priced the market and where I see the value in the match, coinciding with a suggested bet. Most suggested bets would usually be in the standard H2H market, but may also include o/u lines or prop bets from time to time.
I encourage any feedback, either positive or negative and feel free to contact me with any questions on twitter at @AL_TheProfits.
Now lets find some winners!
Best Bet: Melbourne Victory at $1.95 with Luxbet
Best Value: Brisbane at $2.50 with TAB
Sydney v Newcastle
Friday 11 October 7:30pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
The moment a lot of Australian soccer fans have been waiting for, the opening match of the 2013/14 season, but unfortunately this match is a little underwhelming to kick us off with. We’ve got the underachieving Sydney, who is again right in the market to feature in the pointy end of the season, and Newcastle, a team who’ll have to significantly improve to be competitive throughout the season. It will be interesting to see if many of Sydney’s highly regarded recruits get a run at this early stage of the season. Although I don’t rate Sydney as high as others, their better than average home record combined with Newcastle’s average road form makes them a pretty solid favourite here.
Last 5 games
Sydney 1
Draw 1
Newcastle 3
Rated Prices
Sydney $1.71
Draw $4.29
Newcastle $5.46
Market
Sydney $1.95 Tatts
Draw $3.50 Sportingbet/Sportsbet/Betsar
Newcastle $4.30 Betstar
Suggested Bet: Sydney at $1.95 with Tatts
Central Coast v Western Sydney
Saturday 12 October 5:30pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
With a couple of good matches in the opening week of A League this has to be the highlight, the grand final replay. Central Coast will be keen to start off the season the way they finished 12/13 and Western Sydney will be out for revenge. Western Sydney started slow last season, not managing to register their first win till round 4, it will be interesting if this was just due to it being their rookie season or if they start slow again. Central Coast won a staggering 86% of their home games last season, but not to be outdone Western Sydney managed to win an astonishing strike rate of 77% when on the road. I’m interested to see how Flores links up with the rest of the team, and if he can find his form of 2 years ago he could be what Central Coast needs to win back to back championships. This will be a tight match and you’d imagine the winner would become the premiership favourite. Both teams and the draw are all within 20c of their rated price, so I can’t really suggest a bet, but if you’re personally keen on either team you are taking a pretty fair price.
Last 4 games
Central Coast 2
Draw 1
Western Sydney 1
Rated Prices
Central Coast $2.55
Draw $3.59
Western Sydney $3.03
Market
Central Coast $2.45 Sportingbet
Draw $3.40 Sportingbet/Tatts
Western Sydney $3.15 Tatts
Suggested Bet: Nothing
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne Heart
Saturday 12 October 7:30pm (local) – Etihad Stadium
The Melbourne Derby! For a rivalry only a few years in the making, these fixtures are rapidly become a highlight of the A League season. 45,000+ fans are expected to pack into Etihad stadium this Saturday night for what should be a great game, with an electric atmosphere. The Melbourne Derby record couldn’t be tighter, currently sitting at 3 to Melbourne Victory, 3 to Melbourne Heart and 3 Draws, although the recent form stacks up for Melbourne Victory. Both teams have made some good pick-ups during the off-season and can both improve on last season’s efforts. On last seasons stats this looks the most one sided game of the round in favour of Melbourne Victory, hence the short quote I have them at, but being round one and the Derby, maybe tread a little lightly. In saying that, I am still very keen on Melbourne Victory and think they are good value.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Victory 2
Draw 1
Melbourne Heart 2
Rated Prices
Melbourne Victory $1.39
Draw $5.56
Melbourne Heart $9.78
Market
Melbourne Victory $1.95 Luxbet
Draw $3.50 Sportingbet/Betstar
Melbourne Heart $4.00 Sportingbet/Sportsbet/TAB
Suggested Bet: Melbourne Victory at $1.95 with Luxbet
Wellington v Brisbane
Sunday 13 October 5:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
Wellington had to do something after last season’s effort, and do something they did. They’ve recruited a handful of decent players including the gifted Cost Rican Hernandez. Hopefully him, along with some of the other recruits will make Wellington more competitive this season. Unfortunately we can only go off last season’s stats and everything points to Brisbane in this fixture. Wellington had the worst home record last season, combined with Brisbane winning 9 of the two’s 14 matches should make them heavy favourites for this match, I’m surprised there isn’t a larger gap between them in the market.
Last 5 games
Wellington 1
Draw 1
Brisbane 3
Rated Prices
Wellington $7.69
Draw $4.89
Brisbane $1.50
Market
Wellington $2.95 Tatts
Draw $3.40 Sportingbet/Betstar
Brisbane $2.50 TAB
Suggested Bet: Brisbane at $2.50 with TAB
Adelaide v Perth
Sunday 13 October 4:30pm (local) – Coopers Stadium
We finish the week over in Adelaide for one of the tighter matches of the round. This could be the breakout season for Adelaide I feel, they have recruited a few class players during the break and when at home should be able to serve it up to the top teams. Perth has gone with the approach of bringing in a lot of new blood to try and improve on their efforts last season. Unfortunately for Perth, they have the unenviable record of losing 64% of their games on the road, this being the case the improving Adelaide squad should be too strong for them and the $2.50 available represents good value.
Last 5 games
Adelaide 1
Draw 2
Perth 2
Rated Prices
Adelaide $1.81
Draw $4.20
Perth $4.80
Market
Adelaide $2.50 Sportingbet
Draw $3.40 Sportsbet/Betstar/TAB
Perth $3.00 Sportsbet
Suggested Bet: Adelaide at $2.50 with Sportingbet
*Market prices correct at time of writing
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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