A-League Round 11 2016/17 Preview

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value
Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.67
After a less than stellar performance last week, I’m keen to see Perth bounce back in this one. They’re usually fairly reliable at home and I can see them putting in a really strong performance against Sydney. I don’t mind them Head to Head, but I think getting $2.67 for money back the draw is great shopping.

Next Best Value
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.30
Newcastle is another underdog I’m keen on this week. They’ve got Adelaide who has been in average form all season, and that was highlighted by their 4-0 belting last week. Newcastle are at home, where they play their best football, and are coming off a huge away win against Perth, I’m quite shocked they’re not actually favourites for this fixture. Anyway, $2.30 in the Draw No Bet market is great.

Best Value: 
1st:    Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.67
2nd:    Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.30
3rd:    Perth/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68
4th:    Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.40   

Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United

Friday 16 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Round 11 gets underway on Friday night with a tight one between Newcastle and Adelaide. Newcastle is coming off a great win last week when they had to travel west to take on Perth. They fell a goal behind within the first 10 minutes, but that didn’t scare them. They kept fighting and found an equaliser through Hoole. Then, thanks to an own goal, they took they led themselves. They had to hold that 2-1 lead for quite some time, but they managed to do it, and got an unexpected three points. Adelaide continued their soft form with an absolute thumping up in Brisbane. They ended up going down 4-0, and there weren’t really many positives to take out of the game for them. While this does have the potential to be a close match, I think Newcastle can get the better of Adelaide. Their form has simply been superior this season, and at home, it’s a tick for me. I’m more than keen at the price too, how Adelaide have gone up clear favourite I’ll never know, the odds should be basically flipped if you ask me.

Last 5 games:    
Newcastle        0
Adelaide        2
Draw            3

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $2.59
Adelaide        $2.95
Draw            $3.64

Market Price:  
Newcastle        $3.20 Palmerbet
Adelaide        $2.25 Everywhere
Draw            $3.55 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $1.88
Adelaide        $2.14

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $2.30 Sportsbet
Adelaide        $1.64 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.14
Over            $1.88

Market Price:    
Under            $1.96 Sportsbet
Over            $1.90 Bet365

Value:         Newcastle – Head to Head – $3.20
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.30

Wellington Phoenix v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 17 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – MT Smart Stadium

Wellington is hoping to make it back-to-back wins when they host Western Sydney on Saturday afternoon. Wellington haven’t had a season to write home about thus far, but last weeks 3-0 win over Central Coast was hopefully a sign of what’s to come. They have got the ability when they put it all together; it’s just that it doesn’t happen all that often. Western Sydney was actually quite disappointing last week, they were hosting Melbourne Victory, who’s a topside, but they lost 3-0. I don’t think any team should be losing 3-0 when they’re at home. They just couldn’t keep a handle on Berisha who buried all three of Melbourne Victory’s goals. This is another tight one, like most games this week, but I have to give the edge to Western Sydney, although they struggled last week, they are the superior team in my books. The bookmakers have opened up Western Sydney too short though; it’s a tighter match than that. Think Wellington in the Draw No Bet market could be the way to go in this tricky affair.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington        1
Western Sydney    4
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $3.01
Western Sydney    $2.57
Draw            $3.60

Market Price:  
Wellington        $3.20 Bet365
Western Sydney    $2.28 Unibet
Draw            $3.20 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $2.17
Western Sydney    $1.85

Market Price:    
Wellington        $2.40 Sportsbet
Western Sydney    $1.66 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.35
Over            $1.74

Market Price:    
Under            $2.12 Palmerbet, Unibet
Over            $1.71 Unibet

Value:         Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.40

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 17 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

How’s this for a prime-time blockbuster, the Melbourne Derby, with both teams in peak form. While it wasn’t a win, Melbourne City efforts last week were commendable. They were playing away to league leaders Sydney and came into the match as the clear underdog. They didn’t let that worry them though, and they actually held a 1-0 lead for nearly an hour, but a late goal from Bobo undid their hard work and they had to settle for just a point. Melbourne Victory is coming off a cracking performance against Western Sydney last week. They were playing away, and never, ever looked like losing. Berisha had a day out bagging himself a hat trick in the process. They’re really starting to hit their straps, and no one would want to come up against this side at the moment. I like Melbourne City in the Derby, they’ve had the better of them in recent times, and I think they’re probably a better team now than they have had previously, it does look like we might get a nice close Melbourne Derby though. Unfortunately betting wise this is a sit out for me, all the prices look pretty spot on, so unless there’s some big market moves, I’ll just watch and enjoy this one.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    3
Melbourne Victory    1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.33
Melbourne Victory    $3.20
Draw            $3.87

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.25 Palmerbet
Melbourne Victory    $3.25 Unibet
Draw            $3.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.73
Melbourne Victory    $2.37

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.61 William Hill
Melbourne Victory    $2.35 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.48
Over            $1.68

Market Price:    
Under            $2.21 Sportsbet
Over            $1.70 Bet365

Value:         No value

Perth Glory v Sydney FC

Saturday 17 December, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

It’s a late one on Saturday night for east coast fans as Sydney head over to Perth for a 10:00pm match (of course that is 7:00pm local time). Perth was bitterly disappointing last week in their loss to Newcastle. They were at home, so I expected a forward showing from them, but it wasn’t to be. Things looked promising early as they took a 1-0 lead in the first 10 minutes, but that wasn’t a sign of things to come. They proceeded to let a couple of goals in and went down 2-1. Sydney hosted Melbourne City in a match were they started clear favourite. They could only manage a point, and even that was lucky as they were 1-0 heading into the 80th minute. A late goal got them something out of the game, but not what they would of hoped for. I think Perth can bounce back this week; they weren’t their regular selves last week, so hopefully the real Perth turn up. I’m keen on the price for Perth too, but think taking them in the Draw No Bet market is probably the wiser option.

Last 5 games:    
Perth            1
Sydney            3
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.23
Sydney            $3.46
Draw            $3.81

Market Price:    
Perth            $3.65 Unibet
Sydney            $2.00 Everywhere
Draw            $3.60 Palmerbet, Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $1.65
Sydney            $2.55

Market Price:  
Perth            $2.67 Unibet
Sydney            $1.47 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.56
Over            $1.39

Market Price:    
Under            $2.23 Unibet
Over            $1.68 Sportsbet, Palmerbet

Value:         Perth – Head to Head – $3.65
Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.67
Perth/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar

Sunday 18 December, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

The weekend finishes up at Bluetongue Stadium on Sunday afternoon with Central Coast and Brisbane doing battle. Central Coast had to head across the ditch to face Wellington last week, and it wasn’t a pretty site for their fans. They got ripped apart, and never really looked all that competitive in their 3-0 loss. It’s a shame as their recent form hasn’t been all that bad in my opinion. Brisbane had a day out last Sunday scoring no less than 4 goals when they hosted Adelaide. It was a walk in the park for them as they scored at ease. They’re starting to show that they could be a real contender this year. Brisbane really should get the job done here, on the road is never easy, but they are significantly the better side. Can’t believe I’m saying this but I think with the home ground advantage Central Coast is a touch of value. Taking them with money back for the draw would be the only option though. Over 2.5 goals looks to be good value too if you want something different.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        0
Brisbane        0
Draw            5

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $4.35
Brisbane        $1.91
Draw            $4.05

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $5.00 Bet365
Brisbane        $1.75 Sportsbet
Draw            $3.90 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $3.27
Brisbane        $1.44

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $3.65 Unibet
Brisbane        $1.20 Everywhere

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.94
Over            $1.52

Market Price:    
Under            $2.23 Unibet
Over            $1.68 Sportsbet

Value:         Central Coast – Head to Head – $5.00
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $3.65
Central Coast/Brisbane – $1.68

@AL_TheProfits
*Prices correct at time of writing

Author

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AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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