Best Value
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $13.00
First things first, I think Melbourne Victory deserve to be a clear favourite, there is not a doubt in the world about that. But I have to go by my figures, and $13.00 for a team in the “Draw No Bet” market is just too big of a price. On my ratings I have this as clearly the best value this season, and possibly since I’ve been doing the A-League ratings. In that market I thought Central Coast should be around $4.50, which is a pretty long price generally, but the $13.00 on offer here is out of this world, I can’t ignore it.
Next Best Value
Newcastle/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
In the last two rounds, any game involving Newcastle or Wellington has gone over 2.5 goals, and can’t see this doing any different. Both sides have generally pretty sloppy defenses that are prone to letting goals slip through. I think the “Over 2.5 Goals” odds should be substantially shorter from their current market value.
Best Value:
1st: Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $13.00
2nd: Newcastle/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
3rd: Brisbane/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73
4th: Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.00
Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 23 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
The Christmas round kicks off on Friday night with Brisbane hosting Western Sydney. Last week Brisbane made somewhat hard work of their “easy kill” against Central Coast. They scored midway through the first term, and it looked like they would go on to an easy win from there but Central Coast came back with an equaliser in the second half. Thankfully for Brisbane, Maclaren got them out of a sticky situation with a winning goal with about fifteen minutes left in the game. Western Sydney surely threw away three points last week when they travelled to Wellington. With half an hour left on the clock they led 2-0, and everything looked to be going smoothly, but ten minutes later suddenly it was 2-2. From that point the scores didn’t change for the rest of the match, and Western Sydney had to settle for just the one point. I think Brisbane should have no trouble dealing with Western Sydney this week, back at home will do them the world of good, and they look to have a better side on paper. I’m happy to take the even money that’s around everywhere for Brisbane too, I had them rated $1.71, so $2.00 looks good shopping.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Western Sydney 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.71
Western Sydney $5.47
Draw $4.30
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.00 Everywhere
Western Sydney $3.75 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.55 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.31
Western Sydney $4.20
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.46 William Hill
Western Sydney $2.75 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.41
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.17 Unibet
Over $1.73 Bet365, Sportsbet
Value: Brisbane/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73
Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.00
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.46
Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix
Monday 26 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
Newcastle host Wellington in the first match of the Boxing Day double header. Newcastle is coming off a nice 2-1 win against Adelaide. This win made in two on the trot for them, and pushed them up into a surprising fifth place on the ladder. While they are a bit off the top four, I think they now have the belief that they can play finals football, and if they keep playing they way they have been, I’d be surprised if they weren’t involved in the post-season. Wellington somehow came away with a point from their match against Western Sydney last week. While I expected them to perform decently, when they were 2-0 down, I lost all hope. After quickly bagging a couple of goals they were right back in it. The game ended up finishing 2-2, but I’m sure they’d be happy with a point considering the situation they were in. Newcastle should be able to make it three wins in a row here. Wellington really struggle when on the road, and Newcastle have simply been in superior form. I have them rated about evens, and a couple of bookmakers have Newcastle at $2.30, that will do me. I think the Over 2.5 Goals looks a really good show here too; both these teams have “iffy” defenses, so there should be no shortage of goals.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 3
Wellington 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.99
Wellington $4.17
Draw $3.88
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.30 Bet365, Sportsbet
Wellington $3.15 Unibet
Draw $3.50 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.48
Wellington $3.09
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.66 Sportsbet, William Hill
Wellington $2.30 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.56
Over $1.39
Market Price:
Under $2.17 Unibet
Over $1.75 William Hill
Value: Newcastle/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.30
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.66
Adelaide United v Sydney FC
Saturday 26 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Adelaide has the tough task of facing the league leaders this week, at least they are at home, and hopefully that will make things interesting. Adelaide travelled to Newcastle last week, which last season you would have said no problems, but this time around things have changed and it looked a tough task for them. Tough task it was and they struggled losing 2-1. Their team is just not playing the same way they were last season, and now after eleven games, they’ve still only managed just the one win. Sydney continued the dominance they’ve shown all season, this time is was a 4-1 win away to Perth, it doesn’t get much more impressive than that. That win sits them over two games clear at the top of the table, a far cry from where they were this time last year. I have this marked pretty close, but need to give the nod to the league leaders, it’s hard to tip against them, and they just keep winning. Unfortunately the market has Sydney far too short for my liking, so I need to lean towards Adelaide. Prefer them in the Draw No Bet market at $2.63, as that gives you a little “insurance” if it finishes all tied up.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Sydney 0
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.90
Sydney $2.62
Draw $3.65
Market Price:
Adelaide $3.50 Everywhere
Sydney $2.10 Bet365
Draw $3.55 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.10
Sydney $1.91
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.63 William Hill
Sydney $1.50 Bet365, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.77
Over $1.56
Market Price:
Under $2.01 Palmerbet
Over $1.80 Bet365, Unibet
Value: Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.63
Adelaide – Head to Head – $2.90
Adelaide/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80
Melbourne City v Perth Glory
Tuesday 27 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
We’ve got a match on the Tuesday following Christmas, and it’s between Melbourne City and Perth Glory down at AAMI Park. Melbourne City would have been gutted after the final whistle in the Melbourne Derby last week. Thanks to their star Cahill they took an early lead against their rival early on in the match, but shortly after Melbourne Victory leveled things up. The scores then sat at 1-1 for the majority of the match until a late goal from none other than Berisha separated the sides, leaving Melbourne City empty handed. Perth just continue to disappoint me this season, they had a tough matchup against Sydney, fair enough, but they were at home and I expected more from them than the 4-1 beating they received. At the start of the season I thought they would be right in the thick of it, but at this stage finals looks a stretch. Melbourne City should be able to bounce back this week with a win, as they’ve now dropped nine points behind the league leaders in Sydney. I hate saying this, but at $4.50 with money back for the draw, Perth actually does look value. I know it’s hard to back them, but they do have the side that can put it all together at times, fingers crossed this is one of those times.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Perth 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.79
Perth $5.05
Draw $4.13
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.55 Sportsbet
Perth $5.75 Everywhere
Draw $4.50 Bet365, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.35
Perth $3.82
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.21 Unibet
Perth $4.50 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.41
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.60 Unibet
Over $1.50 Bet365
Value: Perth – Draw No Bet – $4.50
Perth – Head to Head – $5.75
Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners
Wednesday 28 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Last game of the round and it’s on the Wednesday, quiet a late game, giving both of these teams a good break going into the match. The fixture is between Melbourne Victory and Central Coast, and it’s being playing down south so it should favour Melbourne Victory. The Melbourne Derby looked like the highlight of the round last week, and it lived up to every expectation. First Melbourne City scored early, but then Rojas evened it up for Melbourne Victory. From there they sat going back and forth, but no one could break through, until with about ten minutes left Berisha did just that, burying the ball in the back of the net like he’s done so many times before. They held that margin to run out 2-1 winners. Central Coast hosted Brisbane last week, and while competitive, they just couldn’t do what was required to get something out of the match. They ended up going down 2-1, which isn’t the worst result for them, but they’ll need to keep improving if they want to make something of this season. I’ve got Melbourne Victory rated one of the shortest prices of the season, $1.48, they really should be just winning this match, they’d already have the three points chalked down. How am I typing this, I don’t know, but I think Central Coast is the value here. And to be honest, on my ratings, at $13.00 in the Draw No Bet market, this is one of the biggest value selections I’ve seen in the four years I’ve been rating A-league fixtures. I know it’s crazy, but I just can’t fathom any team being $13.00 in that market, and Central Coast have been playing decent football lately.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 4
Central Coast 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.48
Central Coast $7.76
Draw $5.09
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.27 William Hill
Central Coast $15.00 Bet365
Draw $6.00 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.19
Central Coast $6.24
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.05 Sportsbet, William Hill
Central Coast $13.00 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.13
Over $1.47
Market Price:
Under $3.20 Unibet
Over $1.36 Bet365
Value: Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $13.00
Central Coast – Head to Head – $15.00
@AL_TheProfits
*Prices correct at time of writing
