Another OK round and turned a nice little profit, was looking great with first two selections landing but the next two fell short. The to non-bet matches also went the expected with both with rating both winners as odds-on chances, unfortunately the market wasn’t enough in our favour to have a bet.
Sydney was rather disappointing, without ADP organising their offense, they never looked comfortable and only had a few chances throughout the whole match. The other disappointing team was Central Coast, only scraping in against Wellington back on Thursday and then easily being taken care of by Western Sydney on Monday, maybe they struggled with the quick back-up.
Hard to make much of the Melbourne Derby with Melbourne Heart being reduced to 10 men early in the game, from that stage on they were always on the back foot, they did look good early, but once Melbourne Victory got the numerical advantage on the field the 3 points was always theirs.
We head into a strange round this week with the games being stretched across from Boxing Day (Thursday) all the way through to New Years Eve (Tuesday). There looks to be a couple of nice overs this week in games that I think are more open than the market sees them.
Best of luck in your last A League bets for 2013, have a great New Year.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value: Sydney at $3.35 with Betstar.
Sydney v Brisbane
Thursday 26 December 7:30pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
Round 12 kicks off on Boxing Day, and with nearly everyone off work, we are all looking to have a punt after Christmas Day. In this fixture we see Sydney hosting the top of the table Brisbane. Sydney is coming off a disappointing loss last week in New Zealand while Brisbane was equally disappointing last week last week at home against Newcastle. Both teams will desperate to get back to winning form this week and I think the game could go either way. Brisbane have been clearly the better side throughout the season but Sydney’s home ground advantage should take them a long way this week wining an impressive 5 of their 6 home games this season, the best percentage of any team in the league. I couldn’t split the two teams, rating them both $2.75 chances, but the market place see’s the game as being a lot more one-sided than that, having Brisbane near even money. At $3.35 Sydney look to be the best value of the round and I give them just as much chance of coming away with the 3 points as I give Brisbane. Another interesting little stat is that the last 5 times these teams have met there was a minimum of 3 goals scored, so the over 2.5 goal market might be another wagering option if that market interests you.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 1
Draw 0
Brisbane 4
Rated Prices:
Sydney $2.75
Draw $3.67
Brisbane $2.75
Market:
Sydney $3.35 Betstar
Draw $3.50 Sportingbet, Sportsbet
Brisbane $2.18 Sportingbet
Best Value: Sydney at $3.35 with Betstar.
Melbourne Heart v Wellington
Friday 27 December 7:30pm (local) – Aami Park
Melbourne Heart line up against Wellington at home this Friday and it looks like their best chance yet to record a win for the season. They have been relatively decent in recent weeks, you have to ignore their performance in the Derby when they were reduced to 10 men early in the game. For the first 15 minutes of the game they actually looked the more likely of the 2 teams to score, but when they lost a player the wheels fell off and they never looked a chance from then on. Wellington on the other hand are coming off an impressive performance last week when recording their first win of the season, their 1-0 loss to Central Coast a week ago was also pretty good. They have usually been very average on the road though, so far this season only recording 1 draw from their 6 away matches, they struggle when they head to Australia. I’m a little surprised in myself but I am pretty keen on Melbourne Heart this week, think they should be even money and $2.35 is around. It’s taken to round 12 but I’ve finally selected Melbourne Heart has value, I hope that doesn’t come back to bite me, but if they are ever going to win a game this season, this is the match to do it in.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Heart 0
Draw 2
Wellington 3
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Heart $2.00
Draw $3.82
Wellington $4.18
Market
Melbourne Heart $2.35 Sportingbet
Draw $3.40 Most bookmakers
Wellington $3.00 Sportsbet, Ladbrokes
Best Value: Melbourne Heart at $2.35 with Sportingbet.
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney
Saturday 28 October 7:45pm (local) – AAMI Park
Saturday night sees the two teams with the biggest followings in the A League clash, and with both teams performing well lately it well be a packed house at AAMI Park. Rumour is that 1500+ Western Sydney supporters are making the trek down to Victoria for this epic game. If that’s the case you won’t be able to hear yourself think at the game with both sets of supporter screaming their lungs out. While I’m not surprised the market is close for this match, I actually thought the odds would be the other way around. Western Sydney has clearly been the best team so far this season, and their 2-0 win against Central Coast last week was effortless. Melbourne Victory love playing at home and that definitely bolsters their chances, but still doubt they should come up favourite. They are also expected to start Finkler for the first time this season which I think is necessary for them to compete with the very best teams in this league, he is play making machine and barely a game goes by where he isn’t involved in a goal when he gets the minutes. Their win last week against a 10-men Melbourne Heart was good, but you wouldn’t expect anything less. This match could easily go either way (have both teams within $0.40 of each other, but Western Sydney look to be the clear value in the match at $2.80. I doubt they should be ever that long no matter whom they are playing while in this current form. In saying all that, the value is minimal and not as enticing as a couple have the other games this round.
Last 4 games
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 0
Western Sydney 3
Rated Prices
Melbourne Victory $2.93
Draw $3.73
Western Sydney $2.56
Market
Melbourne Victory $2.50 Most bookmakers
Draw $3.45 Sportingbet
Western Sydney $2.80 Betstar, TAB
Best Value: Minimal value Western Sydney at $2.80 with Betstar and TAB.
Adelaide v Newcastle
Sunday 29 December 4:30pm (local) – Coopers Stadium
It’s off to Adelaide on Sunday afternoon for what should be a pretty decent game. Adelaide are sort of starting to get back to the form that we know they possess and Newcastle, who have been flying all season highlighted by their 2-0 over Brisbane last week. After I did my market I was thinking that Newcastle would be shorter and Adelaide longer, which worried me cause I’ve been on Adelaide too many times for my liking this season, but the market has come up near identical to my pricings, with no value available whatsoever. Nonetheless it will be still a good game to watch and see exactly where both teams are at, before Newcastle’s win last week I would of said they struggle a little on the road but beating Brisbane away sort of shakes that theory a bit. If Adelaide can actually put it all together, like they did 2 weeks ago in their 4-0 demolition of Central Coast they could blow the visitors away, but if anyone knows which team is going to turn up please let me know, I haven’t been able to get a grasp on them all season.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 1
Draw 2
Newcastle 2
Rated Prices:
Adelaide $2.26
Draw $3.91
Newcastle $3.32
Market:
Adelaide $2.28 Betstar
Draw $3.40 Most Bookmakers
Newcastle $3.05 Tatts
Best Value: Nothing
Central Coast v Perth
Tuesday 31 December 6:00pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
So we head off to Bluetongue on New Years Eve to see Central Coast host Perth. We finish the round with the shortest price favourite of the round, and deservedly so. Perth has struggled making the trek east all season only managing 2 draws from the 6 away games they’ve played. These two teams faced each other just over a month ago and Central Coast managed to come away with the 3 points on that occasion in Perth, so they should have little trouble doing the same when they are back at home. Central Coast need to continue winning all the games they should be to claw their back up towards the top of the ladder, where on ability they realistically should be, and this is one of those games. Now we get to the price, you see that the best around is $1.65 and at first think it’s pretty short, but I actually think they are still value at that, I have them rated right down at $1.48. Let’s hope we can get this last, short but sweet, selection for 2013 home.
Last 5 games
Central Coast 3
Draw 1
Perth 1
Rated Prices
Central Coast $1.48
Draw $5.21
Perth $7.67
Market
Central Coast $1.68 Betstar, Sportingbet
Draw $3.75 Ladbrokes
Perth $5.00 Most bookmakers
Best Value: Central Coast at $1.68 with Betstar and Sportingbet.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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