A-League Round 13 2016/17 Preview

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $6.75
Even though I think Newcastle are up against it, the $6.75 with money back for the draw seems too big of a price to me to pass up. I know it’s foolish to take on Melbourne Victory (again), but I just don’t think they should be anywhere near as short as they are.

Next Best Value
Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.80
Second best of the round comes from the same game, but this time it’s in the Under/Over market. Melbourne Victory home games are typically low scoring affairs, and hopefully this one is no different. Getting $2.80 in this market is a massive price too.

Best Value: 
1st:    Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $6.75
2nd:    Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.80
3rd:    Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $5.10
4th:    Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.00

         
Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Friday 30 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

Round 13 gets under way on Friday night when the table-toppers Sydney host the third placed Brisbane. I’m getting tired of saying it but Sydney is coming off yet another incredibly impressive performance. They were playing away to Adelaide and absolutely tore them apart. By the time the final whistle came, they were 4-0 up, cruising to yet another win. Through twelve games, they are still yet to lose a match. Brisbane dropped a couple of points that they probably shouldn’t of last week. They were hosting Western Sydney, and although they are a strong side, if you want to be a title contender, you just about need to be winning every home game. The 1-1 draw caused them to drop a spot on the table too, which they’d be very disappointed about. While this is a great chance for Brisbane to cut into Sydney’s point lead, I don’t think they can. Sydney should be able to continue on their winning way this week, and extend their lead at the top of the table. Best value in the match looks to be the total goals market with Bet365 offering $1.80 for Over 2.5 Goals, I don’t think you can go wrong there.

Last 5 games:    
Sydney            1
Brisbane        2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
 
Sydney            $1.79
Brisbane        $4.88
Draw            $4.23

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.78 Unibet
Brisbane        $4.75 Bet365
Draw            $3.80 Bet365, Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    

Sydney            $1.37
Brisbane        $3.72

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.33 William Hill, Unibet
Brisbane        $3.40 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $2.79
Over            $1.56

Market Price:    
Under            $2.06 Unibet
Over            $1.80 Bet365

Value:         Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City

Saturday 31 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

The big New Years Eve match this year looks a little one sided as it is between Central Coast and Melbourne City. Central Coast hosted Melbourne Victory on Wednesday so they have the quick back up here. In the first half they looked pretty competitive, they went into the break 1-0 down, and that was due to an own goal, so things were looking ok. But the second half was all Melbourne Victory, and the home side ended up losing 4-1. They haven’t looked too bad recently, but that effort was disappointing. Melbourne City played Perth at AAMI Park was expected to come away with the three points. Although they probably should of, they had to settle for just the one point after they could only manage a draw. It was a high scoring affair with the game ending 3-3, but there should have been one more goal as they missed a penalty, which through the game away for them. Melbourne City should be able to bounce back and get the win this week, even though it is on the road. I can’t believe Melbourne City has gone up around $1.50, that’s got to be massive unders, unfortunately that leaves me looking at Central Coast. The only way to touch them is probably in the Draw No Bet market, and at $5.10 I think you’ll get a good run for your money.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        2
Melbourne City    3
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    

Central Coast        $4.58
Melbourne City    $1.90
Draw            $3.90

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $6.50 Bet365
Melbourne City    $1.53 William Hill
Draw            $4.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    

Central Coast        $3.41
Melbourne City    $1.42

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $5.10 Unibet
Melbourne City    $1.20 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $3.29
Over            $1.44

Market Price:    
Under            $2.60 Bet365
Over            $1.52 Unibet

Value:         Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $5.10
                   Central Coast – Head to Head – $6.50

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Sunday 1 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

The first A-League game of 2017 is a slightly lackluster affair with Adelaide heading across the ditch to face Wellington at Westpac Stadium. Wellington was on the road last week when they took on Newcastle. They led on two separate occasions but they couldn’t hold it and ended up only coming away with a 2-2 draw. A draw from that fixture was a respectable result for Wellington, but from the position they were in throughout the match, they’d be a touch disappointed. Adelaide hosted Sydney last Monday and were handed a belting. They lost the match 4-0 and never really looked dangerous in anyway. Their form this season seems to be going from bad to worse, and I think they’ve now run out of excuses. With both teams in pretty average form it’s a tough match to assess, but I’ll give the nod to Wellington, not with a lot of confidence though. The market prices match up pretty much with my rated prices so I think I’ll sit this one out.

Last 5 games: 
Wellington                  2
Adelaide                     3
Draw                           0

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $2.37
Adelaide                     $3.17
Draw                           $3.82

Market Price: 
Wellington                  $2.32 Unibet
Adelaide                     $3.10 Bet365
Draw                           $3.60 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $1.75
Adelaide                     $2.34

Market Price: 
Wellington                  $1.68 Sportsbet, Unibet
Adelaide                     $2.18 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.07
Over                            $1.93

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.23 Unibet
Over                            $1.70 Bet365, Palmerbet

Value:            
No value

Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory

Sunday 1 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium

The second of the New Years Day matches looks a lot more interesting with Perth and Western Sydney going head to head. Western Sydney had a solid draw last week when they played Brisbane away. Brisbane is one of the topsides, so to snag a point at Suncorp Stadium is a fair effort. They went into half time with the scores locked at 0-0, but shortly after the break Brisbane scored. They didn’t hold the lead long though as Dimas scored for the visitors soon after, earning Western Sydney that valuable point. Perth put up a great showing too; they were on the road to Melbourne City and started a big price underdog. That didn’t deter them though. Unfortunately they couldn’t get a win, but they pulled out a 3-3 draw, which was very solid in my opinion. This is another match that looks like it could be very tight, with under a dollar between the two on my ratings. Looking at the prices, I tempted into Perth, especially in the Draw No Bet market. I think getting $3.00, with the money back for the draw insurance is a great way to go.

Last 5 games: 
Western Sydney         2
Perth                           0
Draw                           3

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Western Sydney         $2.41
Perth                           $3.18
Draw                           $3.70

Market Price: 
Western Sydney         $1.91 Palmerbet
Perth                           $4.00 Bet365, Unibet

Draw                           $3.80 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Western Sydney         $1.76
Perth                           $2.32

Market Price: 
Western Sydney         $1.40 William Hill, Unibet
Perth                           $3.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $3.82
Over                            $1.35

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.43 Unibet
Over                            $1.59 Sportsbet, Palmerbet

Value:            
Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.00
Perth – Head to Head – $4.00
Western Sydney/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59

Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets

Monday 2 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Simonds Stadium (Geelong)

Round 13 comes to a close on Monday night down in Geelong as the in-form Melbourne Victory take on Newcastle. Melbourne Victory was their usual impressive self last week when they took care of Central Coast at home. They started slow, and went into the break only 1-0 up, and that came from an own goal. They stepped it up in the second half though and by the time the final whistle came around they were 4-1 up. Newcastle played Wellington last time out in a pretty mediocre performance. They trailed twice, so when they came away with a draw they probably weren’t too disappointed, but pre-game they would have been expecting more. This looks extremely one-sided for Melbourne Victory; they’ll be very disappointed with anything but a win. I hate to type it, but I think Newcastle are overs, you can get $6.75 in the Draw No Bet market, which looks pretty decent.

Last 5 games: 
Melbourne Victory      3
Newcastle                   1
Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Melbourne Victory     $1.64
Newcastle                   $6.14
Draw                           $4.37

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory     $1.40 Everywhere
Newcastle                   $8.50 Unibet
Draw                           $4.70 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Melbourne Victory     $1.27
Newcastle                   $4.74

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory     $1.15 William Hill
Newcastle                   $6.75 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.07
Over                            $1.93

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.80 Unibet
Over                            $1.44 Bet365

Value:            
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $6.75
Newcastle – Head to Head – $8.50
Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.80

@AL_TheProfits

*Prices correct at time of writing

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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