A-League Round 14 2016/17 Preview

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value
Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60
I think Over 2.5 Goals in Perth home games is one of the better week-in-week-out bets going around. I don’t know what it is about the WA air, but when teams are over there, they love to score. While $1.60 is a little on the short side, I still think it’s the best value of the round.

Next Best Value
Perth – Head to Head – $2.25
Perth should be just winning this game in my opinion. Wellington has to make the longest road trip on the calendar, and they’re not a great travelling team at the best of times. $2.25 looks a luxury; I think anything over even money is.

Best Value: 
1st:    Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60
2nd:    Perth – Head to Head – $2.25
3rd:    Adelaide/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
4th:    Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.60

         
Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix

Thursday 5 January, 9:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

The first game of Round 14 is over West on Thursday night, with Perth hosting Wellington. Perth was solid last week, they had a tough away fixture against Western Sydney, but they came away with a draw, which isn’t too bad. Things were looking good for them early on after Taggart banged one home for them about fifteen minutes into the game. They held that lead for a long time, but with about twenty minutes left Western Sydney leveled up, leaving them with only the one point from the match. Wellington were playing host to Adelaide on Sunday, and like most, I thought it would be a tight one. A tight one it was, after a back and forth struggle from both teams, the game ended goalless, and the teams had to share the honours. I really like Perth here; I have no doubt that they should be well into odds-on with Wellington really finding these long away matches tough. Bet365 have decided to put up $2.25 for Perth, that’s good enough for me. The best value in the game looks to be the Over 2.5 Goals though, these games at NIB Stadium are going overs so often, I think the $1.60 is a super price.

Last 5 games:    
Perth            3
Wellington        2
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    

Perth            $1.80
Wellington        $4.92
Draw            $4.15

Market Price:    
Perth            $2.25 Bet365
Wellington        $3.20 William Hill
Draw            $3.70 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $1.37
Wellington        $3.74

Market Price:    
Perth            $1.62 Bet365
Wellington        $2.40 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $6.61
Over            $1.18

Market Price:    
Under            $2.38 Unibet
Over            $1.60 Bet365

Value:         Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60
                   Perth – Head to Head – $2.25
                   Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.62

Melbourne City v Western Sydney

Friday 6 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Friday night see’s Melbourne City taking host Western Sydney in an important game for the home side. Melbourne City will be desperate to bounce back (and they need to) after only coming away with one point from the match-up with Central Coast in Round 13. They went into the match as a big priced favourite, and were expected to win. Cahill scored early for them and things were looking good, but Central Coast fought back, and heading into the last five minutes of the game Central Coast led 2-1. Melbourne City’s man Fornaroli came to the fore again though and bailed them out with a late equaliser.  That was two points that they wouldn’t of expected to drop, and be very disappointed that they did, they now need to make up some ground on the teams above them. Western Sydney is coming off a drawn home match against Perth on Sunday. They went into the match expecting a forward showing, and while they performed admirably, they could only manage a draw, which has been typical of them all season. They appear to over perform in tough games and under perform in easy games, leaving them with plenty of drawn matches. Melbourne City need to win this game, and should win this game. They have the superior squad, and the home ground advantage, no excuses this week. As you can see below, my rated prices, and the market prices and nearly spot on, which means I don’t think there is enough value to make a play out of. If Melbourne City were to drift a little further I’d be interested, but at the moment I’m sitting out.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    2
Western Sydney    2
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.79
Western Sydney    $5.07
Draw            $4.07

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.85 Bet365, William Hill
Western Sydney    $4.35 Unibet
Draw            $3.80 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.35
Western Sydney    $3.83

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.36 Bet365, William Hill
Western Sydney    $3.32 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $3.24
Over            $1.45

Market Price:    
Under            $2.38 Unibet
Over            $1.58 Unibet

Value:         No value

Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 7 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane has, what looks on paper, an easy kill this week when they come up against Newcastle at Suncorp Stadium. Hard to make much of Brisbane’s efforts last week, they were playing league leaders Sydney away, and they got beat 2-0. You obviously wouldn’t say they had a great game, but it’s hard to pot them much either as Sydney has been doing that to sides all season long. Newcastle played Melbourne Victory down in Geelong and it always looked like they would be up against it. While things didn’t really look to go their way (iffy penalty given to Melbourne Victory, and one not called for them), I think they would of always lost. The final score was 4-2, and they never looked really that threatening, their two goals both came pretty unexpectedly. This looks a put-in take-out job for Brisbane, if they turn up, they should be leaving with all three points. Once against market looks bang-on, need Brisbane or Over 2.5 Goals to drift about $0.10 to get involved.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane        2
Newcastle        1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.53
Newcastle        $7.06
Draw            $4.88

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $1.60 Palmerbet
Newcastle        $5.50 William Hill
Draw            $4.33 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.22
Newcastle        $5.62

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $1.25 Bet365, William Hill
Newcastle        $4.20 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $2.98
Over            $1.50

Market Price:    
Under            $2.43 Unibet
Over            $1.60 Bet365, Palmerbet

Value:         No value

Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 7 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Adelaide are still trying to get themselves off the bottom of the table, but it looks a hard task for them this round as they have to host the flying Melbourne Victory. Adelaide travelled to New Zealand last week, as it was their turn to play Wellington away. The market had the teams marked close together, and that was pretty spot on. Throughout the whole ninety minutes neither team managed to break the deadlock, so they had to settle for a point each after the 0-0 draw. Melbourne Victory “hosted” Newcastle on Monday night in Geelong in their annual match at Simmons Stadium. The luck seemed to be going their way with some of the calls, but they were always in control, and ran out easy 4-2 winners. I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion, but Melbourne Victory should be able to get another win here, Adelaide have been struggling, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they could snag a draw from the match either. Best angle for this one is the Over 2.5 Goals I think, Melbourne Victory haven’t had any trouble scoring of late, and I can see Adelaide netting something too.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        1
Melbourne Victory    3
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $3.19
Melbourne Victory    $2.37
Draw            $3.78

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $3.50 Sportsbet, Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $2.10 Bet365, William Hill
Draw            $3.65 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    

Adelaide        $2.35
Melbourne Victory    $1.74

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $2.60 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $1.53 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $3.59
Over            $1.39

Market Price:    
Under            $2.33 Sportsbet
Over            $1.67 Bet365

Value:         Adelaide/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
                   Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.60
                   Adelaide – Head to Head – $3.50

Central Coast Mariners v Sydney FC

Sunday 8 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Here’s another one-sided affair as Central Coast will try and do their best against Sydney. You can’t take anything away from Central Coast’s effort last week; they were playing a good side in Melbourne City and put up an admiral performance to come away with a draw. And to be fair, if it wasn’t for a late goal, they would of kept all three points. While they’re not getting the wins, they are definitely playing better football of late. Sydney hosted Brisbane and had a solid 2-0 win. We’re now thirteen games into the season and Sydney have still not lost a game; their form is almost too good to be true. Hard to imagine any result other than a Sydney win in this one, they should be just simply too good for Central Coast. Unfortunately once again there just doesn’t appear to be any value in this match, I’ll be sitting out of this too.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        0
Sydney            4
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $7.39
Sydney            $1.54
Draw            $4.64

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $8.00 Unibet
Sydney            $1.40 Everywhere
Draw            $5.00 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $5.79
Sydney            $1.21

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $5.50 Bet365, William Hill
Sydney            $1.14 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $3.00
Over            $1.50

Market Price:    
Under            $2.70 Unibet
Over            $1.48 Bet365

Value:         No value

@AL_TheProfits
*Prices correct at time of writing

Author

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AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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