A-League Round 15 2016/17 Preview

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value
Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.55
I know Adelaide has been disappointing, I’ll be the first to admit that, but so has Melbourne City. I’ve ranked Adelaide and Melbourne City the exact same price, so the fact that you can get $2.55 in the Draw No Bet market for Adelaide really appeals to me. Melbourne City have only won one of their last six matches, that combined with the game being played at Hindmarsh Stadium is enough for me to dive into Adelaide.

Next Best Value
Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.50
$2.50 for Newcastle is really good in my opinion. Perth has continued to be below par lately, and Newcastle has impressed. They’ve been playing solid form, especially at home; they’ve even got themselves into a finals position (for the moment). In a week where the value appears to be few and far between, I’m happy to be in Newcastle’s corner.

Best Value: 
1st:    Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.55
2nd:    Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.50
3rd:    Adelaide/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64
4th:    Newcastle/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59

         
Adelaide United v Melbourne City

Thursday 12 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

There’s another early start to the A-League round this week with Adelaide playing at home to Melbourne City on Thursday night. Last week Adelaide hosted Melbourne Victory, who is currently the hottest team in the league, and unsurprisingly Melbourne Victory won. Adelaide put up a decent fight, but they just don’t have the same guns that Melbourne Victory does, and they went down 2-0. They’ve still only won one game this season, so they’ve got to start turning things around, the season already looks over, but there is still time to change things. Melbourne City are coming off a 1-0 win against Western Sydney, which is a pass mark, but they made tough work out of what they would of thought was an easy win. Franjic bagged them an early goal, and they just clung on to that for the rest of the match. I couldn’t split these two, I’ve rated them both the exact same thing, which means I can’t really tip a winner. Both teams’ prices aren’t the same though, with Adelaide being the lucrative price of $3.50. Of course, with their struggles to be able to find a win this season, I’m more inclined to go with the $2.55 in the Draw No Bet market.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        2
Melbourne City    3
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $2.74
Melbourne City    $2.74
Draw            $3.69

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $3.50 William Hill
Melbourne City    $2.10 Sportsbet
Draw            $3.75 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $2.00
Melbourne City    $2.00

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $2.55 Bet365
Melbourne City    $1.53 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.06
Over            $1.48

Market Price:    
Under            $2.32 Unibet
Over            $1.64 Sportsbet

Value:         Adelaide – Head to Head – $3.50
                  Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.55
                  Adelaide/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

    
Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Friday 13 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

On fire Melbourne Victory play host to Brisbane on Friday night in what should be a cracker at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory made the trek over to Adelaide last week and had little trouble coming away with all three points. It wasn’t the demolition job that they’ve done to some other sides over the past month, but it was a comfortable enough 2-0 win. While they’re still seven points off the league leaders in Sydney, it’s hard to argue that they are in at least as good as form as them. Brisbane dropped three points that I don’t think anyone seen coming. They were hosting Newcastle in a match where they really should have been winning, and after an early goal it looked like they would. From then things didn’t go their way and they ended up on the receiving end of a 3-2 loss. No doubt about it, this is Melbourne Victory’s game to lose, they’ve got the better squad, in better form, and playing at home, I’d be shocked if they didn’t win. I’m actually surprised that Melbourne Victory is at a backable price of $1.73; I thought they’d come up much shorter, so while the price stays there, I’m in.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne Victory    1
Brisbane        2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.57
Brisbane        $6.77
Draw            $4.68

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.73 Palmerbet
Brisbane        $5.00 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw            $4.00 Bet365, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.23
Brisbane        $5.32

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.30 William Hill
Brisbane        $3.92 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.70
Over            $1.59

Market Price:    
Under            $2.35 William Hill
Over            $1.62 Bet365

Value:         Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $1.73

    
Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 14 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

There’s often a game that don’t ignite much excitement, and that is one, it’s a matchup between Wellington and Central Coast. Wellington had the massive road trip to Perth last week and although they took the lead early, they ended up being sent home empty handed. It’s been the story of their season, they have some really good moments, but they are few and far between, and the rest of their game is costing them points. Central Coast had the impossible task of taking on Sydney last week, and surprise surprise, they lost. But to be fair, they actually played a really good game, and even looked a real chance late in the piece. Much like Wellington, there are occasions were Central Coast don’t look too bad, but they are really struggling to put a full ninety minutes together. Wellington must win this match, they don’t get any easier for them than this, and realistically, I can’t see Central Coast getting near them in New Zealand. The bookies have their markets all pretty much bang on with what I’ve got, and to be honest, I don’t mind it as I don’t really like backing either of these sides in their current form.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington        2
Central Coast        2
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $1.64
Central Coast        $6.27
Draw            $4.31

Market Price:    
Wellington        $1.57 Sportsbet
Central Coast        $6.00 Bet365
Draw            $4.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $1.26
Central Coast        $4.81

Market Price:    
Wellington        $1.22 Sportsbet
Central Coast        $4.50 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.06
Over            $1.48

Market Price:    
Under            $2.60 Bet365
Over            $1.55 Sportsbet

Value:         No value

    
Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 14 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Alliance Stadium

Saturday night is the big Sydney Derby, and it’s the league leaders, which get the home ground advantage this time around. Sydney was playing Central Coast last week, and every man, woman, and dog thought they’d get the win, and they did. It was a lot closer than anyone expected though, but they showed their quality just enough to pull through and get all three points. They are still unbeaten, but they wouldn’t want to take their foot off the gas because Melbourne Victory is biting at their heels. Western Sydney was away to Melbourne City last week, a tough assignment. They fell behind early in the game and could just never find that goal to level things up. They have been struggling to score lately, so when their defense lets a goal in, they’re always in trouble. Sydney continues on their merry way here and win again, I can’t see Western Sydney putting up too much of a fight really. Once again, the value just isn’t there to have a bet on Sydney. I think if they drift a little further, around $1.75, they’d be worth a play though.

Last 5 games:    
Sydney            4
Western Sydney    0
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $1.57
Western Sydney    $6.78
Draw            $4.60

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.67 Everywhere
Western Sydney    $5.50 Bet365
Draw            $3.85 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $1.23
Western Sydney    $5.30

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.25 Bet365
Western Sydney    $4.25 William HIll

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.49
Over            $1.67

Market Price:    
Under            $2.32 Unibet
Over            $1.64 Sportsbet, Palmerbet

Value:         No value

Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory

Sunday 15 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Last game of Round 15 is the recently in-form Newcastle against Perth. Newcastle is coming off the win of the week last Saturday when they beat Brisbane 3-2 in Queensland. They’re generally not known for their efforts on the road, but they were great last week. While they didn’t dominate possession, they did dominate the shots at goal, which is important, the more shots you have, the more goals you’ll get. They’re starting to play good football, the best we’ve probably seen in a few years from them, it could be exciting times for Jets’ supporters. Perth got back to their winning ways last week, but you’d expect no less when they were hosting Wellington, a notoriously bad road side. Wellington actually led early, but Perth always looked likely, and after bagging a couple of goals themselves they were in the driving seat. This looks like it could be a tight one, but I’m definitely giving the edge to Newcastle, they’ve been impressing me lately, and I think they have what it takes to get the win here. $2.50 for Newcastle is enough for me to have an interest in his match, I also think the Over 2.5 Goals could be a good option too.

Last 5 games:    
Newcastle        1
Perth            3
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $2.25
Perth            $3.39
Draw            $3.85

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $2.50 Everywhere
Perth            $2.75 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw            $3.60 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $1.66
Perth            $2.51

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $1.83 Bet365, Unibet
Perth            $2.03 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.29
Over            $1.44

Market Price:    
Under            $2.50 William Hill
Over            $1.59 Unibet

Value:         Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.50
                   Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.83
                   Newcastle/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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