A-League Round 16 2016/17 Preview

Best Value
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $11.00
I know it’s crazy, but at $11.00 in the Draw No Bet market I have to be on Central Coast. Melbourne City’s form has been mediocre, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them drop points, hopefully all three to give Central Coast the win at a massive price.

Next Best Value
Perth/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53
This is a gimme, Perth home games have high scores, Melbourne Victory away games have high scores, I don’t see how this one can’t go over 2.5 goals. Melbourne Victory has even been covering 2.5 goals themselves lately. Everything points to Overs, and I think it’s a really solid play, even at the short price.

Best Value: 
1st:    Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $11.00
2nd:    Perth/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53
3rd:    Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.10
4th:    Wellington – Head to Head – $3.00

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory

Tuesday 17 January, 5:45 (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

This Round 7 game between Wellington and Melbourne Victory has been postponed until this Tuesday, but I’m guessing Wellington are wishing the game was played when it was meant to be as Melbourne Victory are in white hot form now. Wellington hosted Central Coast only few days ago on Saturday, and to no ones surprise they got the job done. When they scored in the first ten minutes, I thought this was going to get ugly, fast, but from that point onwards Central Coast held their own. Wellington got off plenty more shots, but they couldn’t find the back of the net again, luckily for them though McGlinchey’s early goal was all they needed. Melbourne Victory hosted Brisbane on Friday night and at the half hour mark they were amazingly up 3-0. At that point there was no betting, everyone thought the game was done and dusted. Brisbane fought back though, and before halftime pulled the score back to 3-2, making a real match of it. Berisha was red carded early in the second half and Melbourne Victory were then on the back foot. They kept their cool though and managed to hold that 3-2 lead until the final whistle. Melbourne Victory should be the clear favourites here; right now I think they are the most in-form team in the A-League. Playing away in New Zealand, only four days after playing in Melbourne isn’t ideal, but I don’t think that will stop them. Bookies look bang on the mark to me in this one, leaving no edge for us punters. If, and that’s a big “if”, Melbourne Victory drift to $2.20, I think they’re worth a small play.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington        1
Melbourne Victory    2
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $4.15
Melbourne Victory    $1.98
Draw            $3.95

Market Price: 
Wellington        $3.65 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $2.00 Everywhere
Draw            $3.75 Ladbrokes

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    

Wellington        $3.10
Melbourne Victory    $1.48

Market Price:    
Wellington        $2.70 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $1.50 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.46
Over            $1.68

Market Price:  
Under            $2.40 Ubet
Over            $1.60 Bet365

Value:         No value

Melbourne City v Central Coast

Thursday 20 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The Thursday night matches continue again, this week it’s between Melbourne City and Central Coast. Melbourne City had to travel to Adelaide last week, but they would of gone into the match pretty confident, as Adelaide had only won one match for the year. The goal machine that is Fornaroli opened the scoring up in the first five minutes, from then I’m sure Melbourne City thought they had all three points. Those thoughts changed pretty quickly though as McGowan leveled things up for Adelaide only five minutes later. The scores stayed at 1-1 for nearly the rest of the game until Ochiend found the back of the net for Adelaide, giving them an unexpected win, and leaving Melbourne City empty handed. Central Coast had to travel to New Zealand to face off with Wellington. They went into the match as a big underdog, unsurprisingly, but they put up a solid effort in my opinion. A lapse in concentration early in the match allowed McGlinchey in to score, but after that they looked relatively decent. Alas they couldn’t get that much needed goal back and ended up facing another loss, but at least it was only 1-0. Melbourne City really have no excuse not to be winning this match, even though their form has been a little sluggish, they should have no problems bouncing back this week. Wow, $1.30 seems short for Melbourne City, to be honest it seems short for any A-League side in any match. I hate it, but double figures for Central Coast in the Draw No Bet market is just too good to refuse.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    3
Central Coast        1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Melbourne City    $1.49
Central Coast        $8.26
Draw            $4.85

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.30 Everywhere
Central Coast        $12.00 Bet365
Draw            $5.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.18
Central Coast        $6.56

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.09 Sportsbet
Central Coast        $11.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.91
Over            $1.34

Market Price:  
Under            $3.20 Unibet
Over            $1.38 Sportsbet

Value:         Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $11.00
Central Coast – Head to Head – $12.00

Sydney FC v Adelaide United

Friday 20 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

Friday night we get to see another one-sided affair as the top of the table Sydney FC host Adelaide as they go for two wins in a row for the first time this season. Sydney had the big Sydney Derby against their rivals Western Sydney last week, and they didn’t really perform up to expectations. They went into the derby a short priced favourite, with their excellent record so far this season, many thought they’d continue on their way last week, but it wasn’t to be. After ninety minutes neither team actually managed to score, leaving the game a 0-0 “bore draw”. Adelaide got their second win of the season last Thursday when they hosted Melbourne City. It’s hard to know what to make of that team, they have the ability to win good matches, as we all know Melbourne City is a solid squad, but they just haven’t been putting it all together. When they did last week, they looked good, so here’s hoping they can continue playing like that. Like most here, I’d be shocked if Sydney didn’t win this match, they should be simply too good. After dropping two points as well last week, they’ll be desperate for another win. Both teams looked to be marked about the right price, but I could definitely be tempted by the Under 2.5 Goals option. At the current price of $2.32 I think it’s great shopping, and well worth a gamble.

Last 5 games:    
Sydney            1
Adelaide        2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    

Sydney            $1.56
Adelaide        $6.71
Draw            $4.79

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.50 Everywhere
Adelaide        $7.00 Unibet
Draw            $4.33 Bet365, Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $1.23
Adelaide        $5.31

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.18 Bet365
Adelaide        $5.50 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.10
Over            $1.91

Market Price:    
Under            $2.32 Unibet
Over            $1.64 Palmerbet

Value:         Sydney/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.32

Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 21 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

Poor Wellington has a three-day back up on Saturday after playing on Wednesday night; this time around they’re facing Brisbane. I think Wellington surprised many on Wednesday when they hosted and defeated Melbourne Victory. And it wasn’t a small win either; it was a comprehensive 3-0 win. Now two of the goals came in the last ten minutes of the game, but they all count, and after that win they’ll be ready to take on anyone. Brisbane is also coming of a game against Melbourne Victory, although there’s didn’t end as well. They did have to travel south to play Melbourne Victory at AAMI Park, which is a much tougher task than being at home like Wellington was. Melbourne Victory shot off to a 3-0 lead in the first half an hour, and the match looked done and dusted, but Brisbane still had some fight left in them. They pulled back two goals and when Melbourne Victory went down to ten men, the match was really on. They couldn’t bridge the gap though, and even though it was a strong performance, it will be chalked down as another loss. Tough game this one, but I’m giving the edge to Brisbane, I think only playing a few days before could really hurt Wellington.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington        2
Brisbane        1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $2.41
Brisbane        $3.17
Draw            $3.71

Market Price:    
Wellington        $3.00 William Hill
Brisbane        $2.40 Palmerbet
Draw            $3.60 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  

Wellington        $1.76
Brisbane        $2.31

Market Price:  
Wellington        $2.15 Unibet
Brisbane        $1.73 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $3.22
Over            $1.45

Market Price:    
Under            $2.23 Unibet
Over            $1.66 Sportsbet

Value:         Wellington – Head to Head – $3.00
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.15
Wellington/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.66

Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 21 January, 8:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

After only playing Wellington on Wednesday, Melbourne Victory is back at it on Saturday night, this time around they’re up against Perth over in Western Australia. I don’t know what to make of Perth’s match last week. They were playing away to Newcastle, so it always looked a tight one on paper. They led 1-0 early, then found themselves 2-1 down, and at the final whistle it was 2-2. I thought they definitely had chances to win the match, but then again, so did Newcastle, so coming away with the one point is probably a fair result. Melbourne Victory travelled to Wellington (New Zealand) only three days before they have to front up to Perth in Western Australia, they’re clocking up the frequent flyer miles, be interesting to see if they can play to their best with all those long flights. Their trip to Wellington wasn’t fruitful either; they came back to Australia with their tail between their legs after a 3-0 loss. A couple of the goals came late, and probably made the score line look worse than it should have been, but previously they were in incredible form, so they’d be bitterly disappointed with that result. Melbourne Victory is the better team, but all that travel “should” affect performance, so it’s hard to split the sides. At the prices I have to be with Perth, the rest and home ground advantage should really assist them. Over 2.5 goals looks a near certainty too.

Last 5 games:    
Perth            2
Melbourne Victory    1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.73
Melbourne Victory    $2.73
Draw            $3.74

Market Price:    
Perth            $3.50 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $2.05 Bet365
Draw            $3.60 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.00
Melbourne Victory    $2.00

Market Price:    
Perth            $2.67 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $1.50 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $6.74
Over            $1.17

Market Price:    
Under            $2.56 Sportsbet
Over            $1.53 Bet365

Value:         Perth/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53
Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.67
Perth – Head to Head – $3.50

Western Sydney Wanderers v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 22 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Campbelltown Stadium

In the last game of the round Western Sydney host Newcastle in a match that I think might be a little closer than most think. Last week Western Sydney played solidly against the league leaders Sydney. They went into the game as a big underdog and managed to come away with a draw. They’ve now had nine draws from fifteen matches, a really bizarre stat. Their defense has been solid; but they are just struggling to score, which was epitomized in this 0-0 draw. I think Western Sydney has the slight edge here, but definitely think Newcastle are right in it. I was pretty shocked when I seen that Western Sydney went up odds-on, they should be further out than that I’m sure. I’m happy to be with Newcastle at the price, specifically in the Draw No Bet market, considering the amount of draws Western Sydney has.

Last 5 games:    
Western Sydney    3
Newcastle        1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $2.28
Newcastle        $3.39
Draw            $3.76

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.91 Sportsbet
Newcastle        $4.20 Bet365, Unibet
Draw            $3.80 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.67
Newcastle        $2.48

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.40 Bet365, Sportsbet
Newcastle        $3.10 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $3.65
Over            $1.38

Market Price:    
Under            $2.32 Unibet
Over            $1.64 Sportsbet

Value:         Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.10
Newcastle – Head to Head – $4.20
Western Sydney/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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