A-League Round 18 2016/17 Preview

A-League

Best Value

Brisbane/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80

Think we can get the cash early this week, Friday night is Brisbane and Sydney, and I’m super keen on the Over 2.5 Goals option. Last week both teams’ games went over, and I definitely see the same thing happening here. Sydney is scoring 2+ goals most games, and I can’t see Brisbane not getting on the board. Hopefully we can get the weekend under way with a collect.

Next Best Value

Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.90

I know this is a brave tip, but Central Coast’s win last week impressed me, beating Perth 2-0 is no easy feat. They come up against Adelaide this week, an easier side, they’re still at home, so I don’t know how they’re such big underdogs. $2.90 with money back for the draw will do me.

Best Value:

1st:       Brisbane/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80

2nd:       Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.90

3rd:       Perth/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

4th:       Brisbane – Head to Head – $3.10

Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC

Friday 3 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Round 18 kicks off on Friday night as the league leaders Sydney head up north to take on Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium. Brisbane hosted Western Sydney last week and it took them deep into injury time to find the winner, but they did find it. After a goal a piece in the first half, they went into the break all tied up. The second half was a tug of war and the game looked destined to finish in a draw, but thanks to Holman and his injury time goal, Brisbane snuck all three points. Sydney was huge last week; they were facing their biggest opponent in the title race in Melbourne Victory, and they were away so were massively up against it. When Melbourne Victory scored early, I thought Sydney was in a lot of trouble. They fought back though, and scored two goals, no only giving them the win, but giving them breathing room at the top of the table. Very tough game this one, found the teams hard to split, but I think I’ll give the nod to Brisbane. Brisbane looks value too, and definitely worth a play, but the best value in the game is in the Over/under market I think, Overs being the go with plenty of goals to be scored for sure.

Last 5 games: 
Brisbane                      2

Sydney                         1

Draw                           2

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Brisbane                      $2.57

Sydney                         $2.96

Draw                           $3.67

Market Price: 
Brisbane                      $3.10 Bet365

Sydney                         $2.30 William Hill

Draw                           $3.50 TopBetta

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Brisbane                      $1.87

Sydney                         $2.15

Market Price: 
Brisbane                      $2.23 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.66 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $3.36

Over                            $1.42

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.06 Unibet

Over                            $1.80 Bet365

 

Value:             Brisbane/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80

                        Brisbane – Head to Head – $3.10

                        Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.23

Wellington Phoenix v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 4 February, 4:00pm (AEDT) – Yarrow Stadium

Western Sydney has to make the big away trip to New Zealand to face Wellington this week in a must win match for both sides. Wellington was away to Adelaide last week and even though they definitely had a chance, they weren’t the favourite by any means. They fell behind early, but then came back with two goals of their own to take the lead. They held that lead for a good forty minutes, but Adelaide scored back to level things up again. At 2-2 the final whistle was blown, and both teams had to accept the one point. Wellington is only a point outside a finals position, so they’ll be fighting hard to jump back into that top six. Western Sydney put in a good fight against Brisbane last Saturday. They were a big underdog, and after ninety minutes the scores were tied, but somehow Brisbane snuck a late winner to ruin Western Sydney’s party. They’re also outside of the top six, so they need to start getting some more wins on the board. At home Wellington should be able to get the job done here. Bookies look to be right on the mark here and I can’t spot any value. It doesn’t look like there will be that much movement either, so this could be a sit out match for me.

Last 5 games: 
Wellington                  3

Western Sydney          1

Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $2.25

Western Sydney          $3.54

Draw                           $3.66

Market Price: 
Wellington                  $2.25 Everywhere

Western Sydney          $3.10 Sportsbet

Draw                           $3.60 Bet365, William Hill

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $1.64

Western Sydney          $2.57

Market Price: 
Wellington                  $1.65 William Hill, Unibet

Western Sydney          $2.23 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.32

Over                            $1.76

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.14 Unibet

Over                            $1.73 Bet365

Value:             No value

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Saturday 4 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium

Saturday night is the always-massive Melbourne Derby, and with both teams in the top four, this should be as big as ever. Melbourne Victory really let me down last week, granted they were hosting the best team in the comp in Sydney, but they’re meant to be the second best team, so being at home should have been enough of an advantage. It wasn’t to be though, after taking an early lead, I thought they were going to lock three points in, and reduced the gap that Sydney had on them at the top of the table. Sydney came back though, in a big way, and Melbourne Victory ended up losing 2-1. They’re now eleven points from Sydney on the table, and it will be really tough for them to run them down. Their across town rivals, Melbourne City, didn’t have much luck either. They were away to Newcastle, so were given a big hope, but Nabbout ruined their night by banging in two goals for Newcastle. Fornaroli got a consolidation goal for Melbourne City, but that was all they got out of the match. This should be a hard fought derby, and I don’t think there will be much in it at all, but Melbourne Victory are most likely to nab the three points. Again the bookies are all over these markets, and the value just doesn’t look to be there to make a selection. If Melbourne Victory were to drift a bit I could be tempted, but not at the current prices.

Last 5 games: 
Melbourne Victory      1

Melbourne City           3

Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Melbourne Victory      $2.36

Melbourne City           $3.22

Draw                           $3.77

Market Price: 
Melbourne Victory      $2.40 William Hill

Melbourne City           $3.05 Unibet

Draw                           $3.65 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Melbourne Victory      $1.73

Melbourne City           $2.36

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.73 Bet365

Melbourne City           $2.25 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $3.02

Over                            $1.49

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.40 Unibet

Over                            $1.61 Palmerbet

Value:             No value  

Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 4 February, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

We’ve got a late night match for our east coast viewers on Saturday night when Perth hosts Newcastle at 10:00pm. Perth was very mediocre in Round 17, while they were on the road, they were playing Central Coast, and they never really looked competitive. They lost 2-0, and it proved a point, which I think most people had thought previously, that they’re a completely different team when playing at home, to away. The top 4 is putting a space on Perth now, so they’ll have to get a couple of wins in the next few weeks to keep in touch. Newcastle earned a solid three points last Friday. Hosting Melbourne City, they went into the match as a slight underdog, but they didn’t think that way. Nabbout was the difference, he scored the first two goals of the game, and from there Melbourne City was always going to fine it hard to get back into the match. Newcastle ended up running out 2-1 winners. Back at home; Perth should get every chance to put three points on the board, as long as they show a bit more than they did last week. I think Perth is the value in the match, but even more so is the Over 2.5 Goals. Games at NIB Stadium have a habit of being very high scoring; I don’t see why this would be any different.

Last 5 games: 
Perth                           3

Newcastle                   1

Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Perth                           $1.81

Newcastle                   $4.83

Draw                           $4.14

Market Price: 
Perth                           $2.05 Bet365

Newcastle                   $3.65 Unibet

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Perth                           $1.30

Newcastle                   $4.38

Market Price: 
Perth                           $1.50 Bet365, William Hill

Newcastle                   $2.70 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $4.38

Over                            $1.30

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.43 Unibet

Over                            $1.57 Bet365

Value:             Perth/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.50

                        Perth – Head to Head  – $2.05

Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United

Sunday 5 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – GIO Stadium

The last game of the weekend is on Sunday afternoon at GIO Stadium between Central Coast and Adelaide. Central Coast really impressed me last week, they were hosting Perth, and so they had a decent mountain to climb. Not only did they win, but they did it with relative ease. Winning the match 2-0, they also dominated the shots taken, so it wasn’t any fluke. Can they back it up again this week, we’ll have to wait and see, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Adelaide hosted Wellington last week, and their horror season continued, they really were expected to win that, but all they could manage was a draw, and to be honest they were lucky to escape with that after a late goal from Mileusnic. They’re still sitting bottom of the ladder with only two wins to their name. This looks a tough game, there’s only five wins between these two sides for the whole season, so obviously they don’t show their best all that often, but I feel that Adelaide is slightly the better side, so leaning to them. Looking at the market prices, I can’t believe Adelaide is odds-on, who on earth is taking that price, not me that’s for sure. I struggle to trust Central Coast (for obvious reasons), but I definitely think you can do worse then backing them in the Draw No Bet market at $2.90.

Last 5 games: 
Central Coast              1

Adelaide                      4

Draw                           0

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Central Coast              $3.11

Adelaide                      $2.43

Draw                           $3.76

Market Price: 
Central Coast              $4.00 Bet365

Adelaide                      $1.95 TopBetta

Draw                           $3.80 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Central Coast              $2.28

Adelaide                      $1.78

Market Price: 
Central Coast              $2.90 Unibet

Adelaide                      $1.41 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.30

Over                            $1.77

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.43 Unibet

Over                            $1.57 Bet365

Value:             Central Coast – Head to Head – $4.00

                        Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.90

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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