A-League Round 19 2017

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.00

Even though they lost, Melbourne City was really strong against Melbourne Victory last week. They’ll be looking to bounce back and being at home, I don’t think they’ll have any trouble. Brisbane will definitely have the task ahead of them, and I’m really surprised they’ve come up as favourite. Getting even money for Melbourne City with money back for the draw looks like really good value as you’re sure to see a decent performance from them.

Next Best Value

Western Sydney/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.55

I know Western Sydney try to lock games down, but nearly all of Central Coast’s game are free-flowing, goal-scoring football. There’s really a week when I don’t think a Central Coast game will go over 2.5 goals, and this game is no different.

Best Value:

1st:       Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.00

2nd:       Western Sydney/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.55

3rd:       Melbourne City/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80

4th:       Newcastle/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60

Sydney FC v Wellington Phoenix

Thursday 9 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium

The top of table Sydney open up Round 19 on Thursday night when they host Wellington. Sydney played away to Brisbane last week, and while we come to expect them to win week in, week out, that’s not always going to be the case. This was one of those cases, while they had their chances, they just couldn’t break the deadlock with a goal. It was a tough battle for both teams, and a 0-0 draw was probably a fair score line. They’ve now gone eighteen games without losing a single match, they’ve almost already got the championship wrapped up at this early stage. Wellington hosted Western Sydney in Round 18 and I really expected more from them. They’ve had an up and down season, but they’re usually more reliable at home, but not this week. They ended up getting beaten fairly easily, losing 3-1. They’re on that borderline position of making/not making the finals; they won’t want to drop any more points from fixtures like that for the rest of the season. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to throw up a tip for this match; Sydney should just be winning. They’ve dropped more points recently, but still not losing, so they’ll be incredibly tough to beat again. They have been well found by the bookmakers though; I didn’t expect them to come up quite that short. I know it’s a long shot, but don’t mind the idea of something little on Wellington with money back for the draw, at $6.00 I think it’s a little bit of value. The safer play in the game is Over 2.5 Goals though; lets just hope those goals come from Wellington.

Last 5 games: 
Sydney                         2

Wellington                  1

Draw                           2

Head to Head

Rated Price:  
Sydney                         $1.57

Wellington                  $6.80

Draw                           $4.67

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.45 Sportsbet

Wellington                  $7.50 Unibet

Draw                           $4.75 Bet365

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Sydney                         $1.23

Wellington                  $5.35

Market Price: 
Sydney                         $1.17 Sportsbet

Wellington                  $6.00 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $3.00

Over                            $1.50

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.30 Sportsbet, William Hill

Over                            $1.68 Unibet

Value:             Wellington – Draw No bet – $5.35

                        Sydney/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $7.50

Adelaide United v Perth Glory

Friday 10 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Perth and Adelaide go head to head on Friday night in what should be a tight affair. Adelaide last week done what they’ve done all season, disappoint. Even though they were on the road, it was to Central Coast, so I expected a bold showing. But they really gave their fans little to cheer for. It took them till injury time to find the back of the net, but by then the game was all but over. The final score at the whistle was 2-1, and they’re probably lucky to have got that one. Perth are back in my good books this week after their win over Newcastle. Unsurprisingly there was plenty of goals, as is always the case at NIB, but thankfully it was Perth who netted the most. They won the match 3-2, and that now moves them to within a game of the top 4, which is where they need to be. As I mentioned before, this looks a tight one on paper, but I’ve got to give the edge to Adelaide as Perth really do struggle when they’re playing away from home. The books look to have the prices spot on for this one, although if the odds for the Draw drift a little, I might be interested.

Last 5 games: 
Adelaide                      2

Perth                           2

Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Adelaide                      $2.41

Perth                           $3.26

Draw                           $3.59

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $2.45 Sportsbet

Perth                           $3.00 Bet365, Palmerbet

Draw                           $3.70 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Adelaide                      $1.74

Perth                           $2.35

Market Price: 
Adelaide                      $1.65 Unibet

Perth                           $2.26 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.96

Over                            $1.51

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.40 Unibet

Over                            $1.58 Palmerbet

Value:             No value

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 11 February, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Melbourne Victory is heading up the coast on Saturday when they take on Newcastle at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle had a very tough road match last week against Perth over in Western Australia. It’s hard for any team to travel over there and come away with anything, and unfortunately Newcastle succumbed to the same pressure. They put in a good fight, but ended up going down 3-2. They’re currently only a single point outside a finals position, so they’ll be keen to bounce back and make up that lost ground. Melbourne Victory won an unusual Melbourne Derby last Saturday. Melbourne Victory opened up the scoring; only problem was it was in the wrong net, an own goal by Baro. Berisha then found the net for them to equal things up with less than ten minutes on the clock. Straight after that Melbourne City repaid the favour and gave Melbourne Victory an own goal, and the win. Those three points slightly bridged the gap on Sydney at the top of the table as they only managed a draw, keeping the championship dream alive. Obviously I think Melbourne Victory should and will win this, but I’m not completely writing off Newcastle, they’ve pulled out some solid performances this season. The best way to attack this one I think is the Over 2.5 Goals option, Melbourne Victory have been scoring plenty lately, and the same goes for Newcastle.

Last 5 games: 
Newcastle                   0

Melbourne Victory      4

Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Newcastle                   $3.75

Melbourne Victory      $2.14

Draw                           $3.75

Market Price:
Newcastle                   $3.80 Everywhere

Melbourne Victory      $1.91 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw                           $4.00 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Newcastle                   $2.75

Melbourne Victory      $1.57

Market Price: 
Newcastle                   $3.00 William Hill

Melbourne Victory      $1.41 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under                          $3.46

Over                            $1.41

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.45 Unibet

Over                            $1.60 William Hill

Value:             Newcastle/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60

                        Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.00

Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 11 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Melbourne City will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing Melbourne Derby last week when they face up to Brisbane. I doubt Melbourne City would of got last weeks game against their rivals, Melbourne Victory, out of their head yet. After being gifted a late own goal, they were leading 1-0 with less than ten minutes to play. They then allowed Melbourne Victory to score, and minutes later gave away an own goal of themselves, going from three points to zero points in the matter of minutes. They’re a good side, so I’m sure they’ll be able to bounce back, but the top 2 on the ladder are starting to get away from them. Brisbane were solid last Friday, They were hosting Sydney, and while they didn’t win, they got as close as anyone has to Sydney this season, a draw. They had heaps of shots at goal, but could just never break through, but I think they’ll take a 0-0 draw against the league leaders. I’m keen to see Melbourne City come back from last week’s disappointment with a win this week. They’ve got the side to do it, and it’s getting to the juicy part of the season where they really need to get as many runs on the board as possible. I’m keen to bet up on Melbourne City too, their price looks huge and I don’t think you can go wrong getting $2.00 with money back for the draw.

Last 5 games: 
Melbourne City           1

Brisbane                      2

Draw                           2

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Melbourne City           $2.14

Brisbane                      $3.61

Draw                           $3.92

Market Price: 
Melbourne City           $2.70 Bet365

Brisbane                      $2.50 Sportsbet

Draw                           $3.60 Bet365, Sportsbet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Melbourne City           $1.59

Brisbane                      $2.69

Market Price: 
Melbourne City           $2.00 William Hill

Brisbane                      $1.85 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.75

Over                            $1.57

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.30 William Hill

Over                            $1.80 Bet365

Value:             Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.70

                        Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.00

                        Melbourne City/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80

Western Sydney Wanderers v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday 12 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium

This weeks Sunday football looks very one-sided as Western Sydney are hosting Central Coast. Western Sydney had a dominant trip over to New Zealand last week when they faced Wellington. They had no trouble beating them 3-1, even though they struggled to hold much possession. Western Sydney are another side that is on the brink of a finals position, every point is vital, so they’ll be trying their hardest to lock down three points at every home game. Central Coast hosted Adelaide last Sunday and surprisingly did really well. I thought they’d have a good chance, but with Central Coast you always wonder if they’ll follow through. That’s two on the trot for them, and for the first time this season they are looking like a solid outfit. There isn’t a doubt in the world that Western Sydney should not drop a point from this fixture, they’ll already have the W chalked in, I’ve just got this feeling though that Central Coast is on the rise. Over 2.5 Goals is short, but I still think it is value. Central Coast games go over nearly every week, hard to see this being any different. And maybe if you’ve got some spare change flick it on Central Coast, you never know.

Last 5 games: 
Western Sydney          3

Central Coast              0

Draw                           2

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Western Sydney          $1.53

Central Coast              $6.80

Draw                           $5.00

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.45 Everywhere

Central Coast              $7.50 Bet365

Draw                           $5.00 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Western Sydney          $1.23

Central Coast              $5.44

Market Price: 
Western Sydney          $1.16 Unibet

Central Coast              $6.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $4.00

Over                            $1.33

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.60 Bet365

Over                            $1.55 Sportsbet

Value:             Western Sydney/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.55

                        Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $6.00

                        Central Coast – Head to Head – $7.50

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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