A-League Round 3 2016/17 Preview

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value
Adelaide at $2.40 looks a huge price, Melbourne Victory have been disappointing so far and things aren’t going to be any easier for them on the road. Adelaide have a great chance to bounce back here and I think they should be odds-on.

Next Best Value
The second best value comes in the same gave as above, but this is in the total goals market. In a game that is sure to have plenty of shots at goal, $1.90 for Over 2.5 Goals seems very generous to me. With any luck Adelaide will be 3-0 up at halftime and we can rest easy for the rest of the match.

@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Adelaide – Head to Head – $2.40.
2nd:    Adelaide/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 goals – $1.90.
3rd:    Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.75.
4th:    Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.00.

Melbourne City v Perth Glory

Friday 21 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Week 3 gets underway on Friday night with two of the highest ranked teams duking it out, Melbourne City and Perth. Melbourne City is coming off an incredibly impressive performance in the Melbourne Derby last Saturday night. They dominated the game from the get go and ran the game out easy 4-1 winners. By now they’re in most peoples minds as major contenders and will be extremely hard to beat, especially at home like they are this week. After soft effort in Round 1, Perth bounced back with a relatively easy win against Newcastle last week. It was 0-0 at half time, but they kicked into gear in the second half and bagged a couple of early goals to put the game out of doubt. While Perth are a good team, this game being played in Victoria means Melbourne City have no excuse not to be winning this, if they want to be taken seriously they’ll take all three points out of this game. I’m actually surprised how short they are in the market though, Perth is still a very good team, and I think $5.25 is over the odds, or the $3.75 with money back for a draw if you want to stick to the safe side.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    2
Perth            2
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Melbourne City    $1.99
Perth            $4.08
Draw            $3.98

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.72 Unibet
Perth            $5.25 Bet365
Draw            $4.05 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.49
Perth            $3.06

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.35 William Hill
Perth            $3.75 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.20
Over            $1.46

Market Price:    
Under            $2.50 William Hill
Over            $1.60 Sportsbet

Value:         Perth – Head to Head – $5.25.
Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.75.
Melbourne City/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60.

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 22 October, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Brisbane have been disappointing in their first two games so Central Coast will be looking to take advantage of that and try to rack up their first win of the season. Central Coast is coming off a pretty big beating in Round 2. They were playing Sydney away, and they were torn apart. It felt like Sydney were scoring on them at will, with the final result 4-0 showed that. It was a shame to see after they played so well in the first week, hopefully they can bounce back this week. To be honest, Brisbane were no better last week, they had Newcastle, and even though it was away, most thought they’d be very competitive, but it was quite the opposite. They also lost their match 4-0. After such a good season last year, they’re on the ropes at the start of this season. All things being fair Brisbane really should be winning this still, they were goals better than Central Coast last season and I can’t imagine things have changed all that much. $1.75 for Brisbane looks good to me, but Over 2.5 goals is probably the best way to tackle this match.

Last 5 games:  
Central Coast        0
Brisbane        5
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $6.90
Brisbane        $1.56
Draw            $4.64

Market Price:  
Central Coast        $4.50 Bet365
Brisbane        $1.75 Sportsbet, William Hill, Unibet
Draw            $4.00 Palmerbet, Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $5.41
Brisbane        $1.23

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $3.40 Bet365
Brisbane        $1.36 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:  
Under            $3.70
Over            $1.37

Market Price: 
Under            $2.38 Unibet
Over            $1.59 Sportsbet, Palmerbet

Value:         Central Coast/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59.
Brisbane – Head to Head – $1.75
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.36.

Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 22 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Saturday night is a battle of the two big guns that have been struggling thus far in Adelaide and Melbourne Victory. Last week Adelaide lead 1-0 going into halftime against Western Sydney and I thought they would just go on with it. Boy was I wrong, they didn’t put up much fight and courtesy of two goals from Santalab they ended up leaving the match empty handed. Melbourne Victory had the big Melbourne Derby last week and fans were hoping they’d bounce back after their draw the week before. It wasn’t to be though, Melbourne City utterly dominated the match from start to finish, and never really gave Melbourne Victory much of a look in. Adelaide is back at home this week and I’d be shocked if they didn’t get their season into gear with their first win. Anything better than evens looks ok to me, but as much as $2.40 is around.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        1
Melbourne Victory    2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.78
Melbourne Victory    $4.88
Draw            $4.30

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $2.40 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $2.90 Bet365, Unibet
Draw            $3.50 Bet365, Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.36
Melbourne Victory    $3.75

Market Price:  
Adelaide        $1.74 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $2.10 Bet365, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.96
Over            $1.51

Market Price:  
Under            $2.00 Bet365
Over            $1.90 Unibet

Value:         Adelaide – Head to Head – $2.40.
Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.74.
Adelaide/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 goals – $1.90.

Wellington Phoenix v Sydney FC

Sunday 23 October, 6:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Wellington is the only team that’s yet to register a point this season so they’ll be wanting to change that when they host Sydney on Sunday. Wellington are coming off the toughest road trip in the A-League, New Zealand to Western Australia, not to mention that they had to come up against a pretty tough Perth side. They stayed in the game for a long period of time, at the break it was still 0-0, but they couldn’t hold on any longer after that as Perth broke through early in the second half. They ended up losing 2-0, which is kind of to be expected. Sydney put in a cracking performance last week, hosting Central Coast always looked easy on paper, but they made it look even easier on the pitch. They ran out 4-0 winners with barely breaking a sweat. That’s two 4-0 wins from their first two games, it’s hard to deny that they’re playing great football. This is a tough game, I think both teams have realistic chances, but on the form from the first two weeks, I’d have to give the nod to Sydney. As far as betting is concerned though, that’s a different story. There is no way that I think Sydney should be odds-on, that looks horrible unders. Wellington at $3.00 in the Draw No Bet market looks the best option in this one.

Last 5 games:  
Wellington        1
Sydney            2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $3.23
Sydney            $2.36
Draw            $3.76

Market Price:    
Wellington        $3.90 Sportsbet
Sydney            $1.95 Unibet
Draw            $3.75 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Wellington        $2.37
Sydney            $1.73

Market Price:  
Wellington        $3.00 William Hill
Sydney            $1.43 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.58
Over            $1.63

Market Price:  
Under            $2.20 Bet365
Over            $1.71 Unibet

Value:         Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.00.
Wellington – Head to Head – $3.90
.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 23 October, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium

Round 3 comes to a close on Sunday afternoon at Spotless Stadium as Western Sydney and Newcastle do battle. Western Sydney was very good last week, coming from 1-0 at halftime to beat Adelaide, and then winning 2-1 at the final whistle, it was the performance they needed. I’m not sure if Adelaide went to sleep, but from where I was watching it looked like Western Sydney were the ones that turned the game around. Newcastle, I’m not sure where their performance last week came from, a huge 4-0 over Brisbane. I’d have to check but I doubt they’ve had a win like that over a top team for a few seasons. It will be interesting to see if they can back that effort up again this week. Western Sydney shouldn’t have any problems racking up another win this week. After their good win last week away, coming back home they should be even better. There always seems to be one game a round, and this is it, there really appears to be no value. Bookmaker prices all look spot on, hopefully we’ve already got some cash out of the first four games.

Last 5 games:  
Western Sydney    3
Newcastle        1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.78
Newcastle        $5.04
Draw            $4.15

Market Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.75 Unibet
Newcastle        $5.00 Bet365
Draw            $4.10 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.35
Newcastle        $3.82

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.34 Unibet
Newcastle        $4.00 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.54
Over            $1.65

Market Price: 
Under            $2.20 Unibet
Over            $1.73 Sportsbet

Value:         No value.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

Leave a Reply