A-League Round 4

Isn’t it great to get back on the right side of the ledger after that forgettable Round 2. Last week almost went perfectly hitting 3 out of the 4 selections, including Melbourne Victory at $2.90. The only miss was Newcastle who were $4.30 underdogs, but they did put up a good effort coming away with a draw. Hopefully we can keep the momentum flowing into this round. Unfortunately there are a couple of tough matches were the market looks to have it basically spot on, but hopefully we can extract the value out of the other games.


Best Value: Central Coast at $1.96 with Betstar
Second Best Value: Sydney at $4.33 with Ladbrokes


Western Sydney v Adelaide
Friday 1 November 7:30pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium

Once again we are blessed with a cracking Friday night game, this looks like it will be the game of the round. And if you like goals, I suggest you watch this one, Western Sydney have scored 10 goals in the last 2 matches between the two clubs and Adelaide have scored in all 3 matches between them. So if you like the “goal o/u” markets than I suggest that overs will get every chance to salute for you. Western Sydney really should have too much firepower for the Adelaide defense here, but the fact that the best available is $1.50 makes this a very hard match to have a play in. Adelaide’s price is spot on and the draw is around the right the mark too, so if you’re desperate to have a bet on a Friday night, over 2.5 goals looks the way to go. I’ll be leaving it alone and just enjoying what should be a very entertaining match.


Last 3 games:
Western Sydney                 2
Draw                                   0
Adelaide                            1


Rated Prices:
Western Sydney               $1.58
Draw                                   $4.58
Adelaide                            $6.73


Western Sydney             $1.50 Sportsbet/Sportingbet/TAB
Draw                                 $4.20Bestar/Luxbet
Adelaide                          $7.00Luxbet/Ladbrokes/Sportsbet


Best Value: Nothing


Perth v Sydney
Saturday 2 November 2:30pm (local) – NIB Stadium

I have to start with, how is Perth odds on? Perth has only won 1 of the last 11 fixtures between these two clubs, and Sydney has won an astonishing 8 of those matches. Granted Sydney does have a terrible away record, but Perth’s record at home is one of the worst home records in the league. As you can see by my ratings, I have Perth and Sydney at basically an identical price, so the fact that you can get $4.33 for Sydney is too good to be true, if they start that price I’d be shocked. I don’t know who is diving into Perth at odds on, $1.85, I still can’t believe that they are that short. As you can probably tell I’m pretty confident about Sydney being value here and in a round where there is a couple of no bet matches, I’m very keen to back the underdog in this fixture.


Last 5 games:
Perth                      1
Draw                      2
Sydney                  2


Rated Prices:
Perth                     $2.80
Draw                     $3.57
Sydney                 $2.76


Perth                     $1.85 Sportingbet/Sportsbet/Tatts/TAB
Draw                     $3.55 Tatts
Sydney                 $4.33 Ladbrokes
Best Value: Sydney at $4.33 with Ladbrokes


Newcastle v Central Coast
Saturday 2 November 7:45pm (local) – Hunter Stadium

I can’t wait for Saturday night, mainly because I can’t get enough of the $1.96 Betstar are serving up for Central Coast. I have them at $1.40, one of my shortest ratings for the season so far. Newcastle are on a run of over 400 minutes since they last found the back of the net, and they haven’t been getting many chances to change that over the past few weeks. Central Coast can struggle for consistency 100% of the time, but scoring is a problem they don’t have, scoring in every match so far this season. Although Newcastle’s defense held up well last week, I seriously doubt they’ll be able to keep a clean sheet against Central Coast. After only 5 points from the first 3 rounds, Central Coast must win to stay at the pointy end of the ladder, that being said $1.96 looks great overs.


Last 5 games:
Newcastle                1
Draw                         2
Central Coast          2


Rated Prices:
Newcastle              $9.84
Draw                       $5.51
Central Coast        $1.40


Newcastle              $4.30 Tatts
Draw                       $3.60 Sportsbet
Central Coast        $1.96 Betstar


Best Value: Central Coast at $1.96 with Betstar


Brisbane v Melbourne Heart
Sunday 3 November 4:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium

Interesting little match this one. Obviously the first thing you think is that Brisbane will be super hard to beat in this game, and they will, but taking the $1.53 that’s the best around, that’s another story. Melbourne Heart have only managed to win 1 game on the road since the start of last season, seeing that stat makes it very hard to give them even a sniff, but I think they are a better side this season and the road wins will start to come for them. To their credit they have managed to come away with a draw against both Melbourne Victory and Central Coast this season, a record a few teams would be quite envious of. Brisbane will be keen to keep their position at the top of the ladder and realistically should be able to deal with Melbourne Heart easily enough at home. The only value in markets looks to be Melbourne Heart, but the price isn’t juicy enough to tempt me in though, unfortunately another watch match for me.


Last 5 games:
Brisbane                  1
Draw                         2
Melbourne Heart    2


Rated Prices:
Brisbane                  $1.66
Draw                        $4.34
Melbourne Heart   $6.02


Brisbane                 $1.53 Sportingbet/Betstar
Draw                        $4.10 Luxbet
Melbourne Heart   $7.00 Ladbrokes/Sportsbet


Best Value: Nothing


Melbourne Victory v Wellington
Monday 4 November 7:30pm (local) – Etihad Stadium

We finish the round on Monday night this week with another match that looks to have a fairly obvious result. Melbourne Victory, a top 3 or 4 team against Wellington, who are fighting to hand off the wooden spoon to someone else this season. Melbourne Victory has their first match with Muscat as coach, and you’d imagine they’d be pretty keen to impress the new boss. Hernandez will have a less than warm welcome back to Melbourne as he comes up against his old team. He has been a shining light for Wellington and will need to perform at his best if Wellington are to be competitive in this. Melbourne Victory also has the ominous record of winning the last 6 times these teams have met. Melbourne Victory is short in markets, and deservedly so, the plus is they still appear to be a good price at $1.57.


Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory       5
Draw                              0
Wellington                    0


Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory      $1.45
Draw                             $5.30
Wellington                   $8.10


Melbourne Victory     $1.57 Most Bookmakers
Draw                            $4.00 Luxbet
Wellington                  $6.00 Ladbrokes/Tatts/Sportsbet


Best Value: Melbourne Victory at $1.57 with Most Bookmakers




*Prices correct at time of writing.

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I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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