A-League Round 5 2016/17 Preview

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.02

While I highly rate Melbourne City, I think it’s crazy that they’re going into this game favourite. Brisbane is coming off two solid wins and at home they can still be a force to be reckoned with. I like them Head to Head too, but at better than even money with money back for a draw, I don’t think you can go wrong.

Next Best Value
Wellington/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.38

I only back Under 2.5 Goals a few times a year, and this is one of those times. With the exclusion of the Newcastle game from Round 2, both these teams have found it pretty tough to score, and I thought it should be flip of the coin odds for Overs or Unders, but with $2.38 available for the Under 2.5, it’s definitely the way to go.

Best Value:

1st:       Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.02
2nd:      Wellington/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.38
3rd:      Perth – Head to Head – $2.05
4th:      Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.78

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City

Friday 4 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

There’s two highlights this round in my opinion, one of them is the Big Blue on Saturday night, but the other is this fascinating match between Brisbane and Melbourne City. Brisbane had a strong win against one of the top teams in the competition in Perth last week. They were at home, so I expected them to win, but with 20 minutes left it was 1-1, and it looked like the points might be split. A handy goal from Borello with 15 minutes on the clock was enough to seal them, what was really a well-earned win. Melbourne City were in a similar position last week hosting Adelaide, but they ere expected to get the job done with relative ease. While Adelaide did come at them in the second half, Fornaroli netted a couple within the first hour to give them breathing room, and that was all the goals Melbourne City needed to get all three points out of the fixture. I think the home field advantage will be enough for Brisbane to get over the line. If they want to show they can once again be in the thick of it at the top of table, they need to be winning matches like this. I’m pretty surprised the market has Melbourne City as the favourite, I definitely think the odds should be flipped. Brisbane at $2.90 looks huge, but if you want to play to on the safe side you can get $2.02 for them with money back if it ends in a draw.

Last 5 games: 
Brisbane                     1
Melbourne City           3
Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Brisbane                     $1.99
Melbourne City           $4.08
Draw                           $3.98

Market Price: 
Brisbane                     $2.90 Bet365
Melbourne City           $2.45 Unibet
Draw                           $3.65 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Brisbane                     $1.49
Melbourne City          $3.06

Market Price: 
Brisbane                     $2.02 Unibet
Melbourne City          $1.80 William Hill, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $4.56
Over                            $1.28

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.48 Unibet
Over                            $1.57 Bet365

Value:          
Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.90.
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.02.
Brisbane/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57.

Wellington Phoenix v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 5 November, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

This doesn’t look the most enthralling match on paper (sorry Phoenix and Jets fans, personal opinion), but there is always money to be made so matches, so who cares where these teams are on the ladder, and let’s try and find some value. Wellington are coming off an old fashion whooping on Monday when they flew across to Melbourne to take on Victory. They were looking more than competitive for the majority of the game, and with 20 minutes to play they were only down 2-1, but it was that last 20 minutes that told. At that point Melbourne Victory turned on the afterburners and banged in 4 goals in quick succession, leaving Wellington to lick their wounds with a 6-1 loss. Newcastle had a tough assignment hosting unbeaten Sydney last round. Unfortunately for them they couldn’t stop Sydney on their hot streak and ended up losing 2-0. Brosque scored for the visitors very early, and then Newcastle were on the back foot for the rest of the match. Very tough game to split these two, I think Newcastle is probably the better team, but having to travel to New Zealand tips the tables in Wellington’s favour I feel. The books have opened up Wellington very tight, much tighter than they should be for a team that went down 6-1 only 5 days ago. At the price Newcastle looks the way to go, they should give a good showing, and at $3.50 they’re worth a gamble. The best value in the game appears to be the Under 2.5 Goals, not often I suggest the Unders, but this match has low scoring written all over it.

Last 5 games: 
Wellington                  1
Newcastle                  3
Draw                           1

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $2.40
Newcastle                  $3.21
Draw                          $3.69

Market Price: 
Wellington                  $2.05 Sportsbet
Newcastle                   $3.50 Palmerbet
Draw                           $3.75 Bet365

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Wellington                  $1.75
Newcastle                   $2.34

Market Price: 
Wellington                  $1.51 Unibet
Newcastle                   $2.63 bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $1.98
Over                            $2.02

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.38 Unibet
Over                            $1.64 Sportsbet

Value:     
Wellington/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.38
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.63
Newcastle – Head to Head – $3.50

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 5 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

This has to be the big ticket match of the weekend, the Big Blue. Sydney have failed to win any of the last 5 “Big Blues”, but they’re in the best form we’ve seen for a while, can they finally get the win, or will Melbourne Victory continue their recent dominance? Sydney are coming off yet another win, that’s 4 now, as they sit on top of the table alone as the only team to not drop a point yet. This time they travelled to Newcastle and got the job done in similar dominance to their previous wins. Amazingly, they’re yet to concede a single goal, if they can keep their defense going this well, it might be a while before they do drop a point. Melbourne Victory had an easy kill (which they needed) against Wellington on Monday. The game wasn’t a blowout until the last 20 minutes when Victory decided it was time to pour on the goals. They ended up coming away with a massive 6-1 win, which on the back of their previous win, should have kick-started their season. Sydney should finally get the win over the Melbourne Victory which they’ve been waiting quite some time for. Their offense has been deadly, their defense has been huge, especially at home Sydney look incredibly tough to beat at the moment, and I think they’ll rack up win number 5 here. Bookies are all over this one, they look to have the Head to head market spot on, luckily there looks to be some value in the Over 2.5 market. With Sydney not conceding thus far, we can get as much as $1.78 for the Overs, which I’m hoping will be covered.

Last 5 games: 
Sydney                       0
Melbourne Victory      3
Draw                          2

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Sydney                       $1.86
Melbourne Victory      $4.48
Draw                           $4.16

Market Price: 
Sydney                        $1.91 Palmerbet
Melbourne Victory     $4.20 Bet365
Draw                           $3.75 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Sydney                        $1.42
Melbourne Victory     $3.40

Market Price: 
Sydney                        $1.39 Unibet
Melbourne Victory     $3.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $2.81
Over                            $1.55

Market Price:
Under                          $2.12 Unibet
Over                            $1.78 Sportsbet

Value:
Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.78

Adelaide United v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday 6 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Now I’m thinking this looks to be an incredibly one-sided affair, but surprisingly Central Coast is actually above Adelaide on the ladder, but I have a sneaking suspicion that might change after this match. Adelaide have been disappointing their fans so far this season, but I think we have to give them a little slack, they’ve had a tough draw so far, and last week epitomized that. They were up against Melbourne City away, one of the toughest fixtures on the calendar, and they performed admirably. While technically getting nothing out of the match, their 2-1 loss should have hopefully given them some confidence that they can be competitive with the best. They’re not the first team Fornaroli has scored against, and they won’t be the last. Central Coast played really well in the their own right last week, stealing a point out of their road match to Western Sydney. They were 1-0 down literally minutes into the game, but that didn’t stop them. It took them to the hour mark, but a goal curtesy of Berry levelled things up for them. I’m sure they would be satisfied with a draw from what look a tough match. In all honesty, if Adelaide don’t win this, they might as well pack up shop, because it doesn’t get any easy than this to get your first win of the season. The market looks pretty accurate to me, so I’m looking at the Over 2.5 Goals for some value. I think Adelaide will be giving it everything they got, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t score 3+ goals by themselves.

Last 5 games: 
Adelaide                     4
Central Coast             1
Draw                           0

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Adelaide                     $1.48
Central Coast             $8.36
Draw                           $4.92

Market Price: 
Adelaide                     $1.45 Sportsbet, William Hill
Central Coast             $7.25 Unibet
Draw                           $4.85 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Adelaide                     $1.18
Central Coast             $6.66

Market Price: 
Adelaide                     $1.16 William Hill
Central Coast             $5.80 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 
Under                          $4.07
Over                            $1.33

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.70 Bet365, Unibet
Over                            $1.47 Sportsbet

Value:  
Adelaide/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.47

Perth Glory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 6 November, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

Round 5 finishes up with what I think is a pretty one-sided match, although the market doesn’t tend to agree with me, it’s Perth hosting Western Sydney. Perth lost last week 2-1 to Brisbane in what was always going to be a hard match-up for them. It was on the road, so they went into the match as underdogs. With 20 minutes left it was all square at 1-1, but Borello ruined the party for Perth, and they went back home empty handed. Didn’t Western Sydney have a stinker last week, they were playing at home to Central Coast, widely regarded as the easiest fixture of the season, and they could only manage a 1-1 draw. To make things worse, they led 1-0 after only 2 minutes, but they couldn’t find a second throughout the whole match. I’m not sure how Western Sydney landed that away win to Adelaide earlier in the season, but I think they’re going to have a tough time about it this year. I personally think Perth will just be winning this, and I can’t believe you can get better than even money for them. I’m almost positive that come kickoff time they’ll be odds-on; surely they have to be.

Last 5 games: 
Perth                           1
Western Sydney         2
Draw                           2

Head to Head

Rated Price: 
Perth                           $1.69
Western Sydney         $5.31
Draw                           $4.51

Market Price:
Perth                           $2.05 Unibet
Western Sydney         $3.60 Bet365
Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 
Perth                           $1.32
Western Sydney         $4.13

Market Price: 
Perth                           $1.57 William Hill
Western Sydney         $2.58 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $3.36
Over                            $1.42

Market Price: 
Under                          $2.55 Unibet
Over                            $1.60 William Hill

Value:  
Perth – Head to Head – $2.05
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.57
Perth/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60

*Prices correct at time of writing

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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